Research published by Whale Hunting suggests that the Venezuelan government may have consolidated one of the largest reserves of bitcoin (BTC) and digital currencies in the world.
According to the report, Nicolás Maduro's administration would have systematically converted state income into digital assets,
accumulating an estimated figure of USD 60,000 million.
If these are confirmed
data, the Venezuelan State would control more than 600,000
bitcoin. A figure that would rival the holdings of institutional giants. Among them, Strategy (673,000 BTC) and the bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) issued by BlackRock (770,000 BTC). I would also compete with himself
Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin (1.1 million BTC).
Whale Hunting is a medium specialized in documenting global financial crimes and money laundering networks. His importance in this investigation lies in his ability to trace the money behind some of the world's most brazen financial crimes and expose the networks of people who enable them, using high-level human intelligence (HUMINT) sources.
The origin of the reserve: from gold to bitcoin
The investigation details that
the accumulation of this digital treasure formally began in 2018, in a context of international sanctions and economic crisis.
According to Whale Hunting journalists, «the Venezuelan government exported 73.2 tons of gold in 2018 alone, approximately USD 2.7 billion at the time». The scheme would have consisted of selling this mineral in markets in Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates
to then convert the income into digital currency.
The report highlights that temporality was a key factor for the growth of this reserve. «Venezuela began moving gold seriously in 2018, when bitcoin was trading between USD 3,000 and USD 10,000», they highlighted.
«If just a fraction of that amount were converted to Bitcoin when prices ranged between $3,000 and $10,000, and held up to the $69,000 peak in 2021, the gains would be staggering», they noted.
The research outlet described a «systematic effort to convert gold revenue into bitcoin through OTC brokers in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates». This, later using mixers (
mixers) and cold wallets
(cold wallets)
to keep assets out of the reach of international justice.
The magnitude of these holdings sparked debate among market analysts about the impact that the seizure of these assets by US authorities would have.
This, taking into account that Nicolás Maduro
he was arrested by the United States on January 3, in a military operation, as reported by CriptoNoticias. He was taken to New York,
where he will be tried for narcoterrorism crimes and weapons possession. It emerged on Monday, January 5, that the president
declared innocent of all the charges against him.
According to data from analysts from investigative entities such as Serenity, it is very likely that, as a result of his arrest, the BTC managed by the Maduro administration
be seized «and immediately entangled in complex litigation».
«Creditors will file court orders and the Department of Justice will demand forfeiture. Additionally, private keys to the wallets will be in the custody of the US Treasury, but coins will not be able to move»,
they explain.
Serinity analysts point out that the seizure of 600,000 BTC would cause volatility in the price of the digital currency in the short term. This is due to political uncertainty,
which would lead to a bullish narrative resulting from a «supply shock».
«The market will be aware that 600,000 BTC (3% of the outstanding supply) will be effectively withdrawn from the market over 5-10 years. This will act as a huge ‘lockdown’, reducing liquidity supply and supporting higher prices», he assured.
Likewise, Serenity believes that the narrative of the US strategic bitcoin reserve. The US will gain momentum. They believe that US President Donald Trump could order Venezuela's more than 600,000 BTC
become part of the US treasury. «This also acts as a massive lockdown, reducing liquidity supply and sustaining higher prices», they note.
Uncertainty about access to private keys
Despite the astronomical figures, Whale Hunting warns that full control of these funds depends on those who own the private keys.
With key figures in the scheme in custody or missing, the question arises as to whether this capital can be recovered or whether «it will fade into the blockchain, accessible only to those who hold the keys», researchers say.
«The question is no longer whether the regime can survive. It is whether his stolen fortune can be recovered, or whether it will vanish on the blockchain», the journalists conclude.
While the market assimilates the possibility that
Venezuela is a «bitcoin superpower»- the shortage of the primary digital asset appears to be reinforced by the prospect of an imminent prolonged lockdown of digital currencies that might otherwise have been liquidated.