In a meeting room in Doha, some 7,500 miles from Caracas, officials were busy discussing the future of Venezuela without Nicolás Maduro, its dictator.
A senior member of the UAE royal family was acting as a bridge between the regime and Donald Trump, while the US president was building an armada
to pressure the Venezuelan leader to surrender.
But Mr Maduro had no part in the secret meetings in Doha. Instead, it was his vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, and her brother Jorge who were leading the talks.
According to the Miami Herald, which has strong contacts in Latin America, Ms Rodríguez had reached out to Washington to present herself as a “more acceptable” alternative to the Maduro regime.
She now rules Venezuela with the approval of Mr Trump.
Details of the meeting have fuelled suspicions
that the removal of Mr Maduro was an inside job, planned to leave a president in power who can manage a transition without dismantling the state completely and causing turmoil and riots.
As the October reports of the meeting say, Ms Rodríguez offers “Madurismo without Maduro,” a kind of “regime lite”.
On Saturday, Donald Trump said
the US would now “run” Venezuela through the transition government led by Ms Rodríguez, while preparations were made for American oil companies to swoop in and start extracting.
“She’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again,” Mr Trump told reporters of Ms Rodríguez, who faced US sanctions during Mr Trump’s first administration for her role in undermining Venezuelan democracy.
On Sunday, Francisco Santos Calderón, Colombia’s former vice-president, suggested the entire operation to remove Mr Maduro had been an inside job with the help of Ms Rodríguez.
Mr Santos said he was “absolutely certain” that Ms Rodríguez betrayed Mr Maduro by allowing him to be captured by the US without much of a fight.
Mr Santos, who was previously the Colombian ambassador to the US, said: “They didn’t remove him, they handed him over.
“I’m absolutely certain Delcy Rodríguez handed him over. All the information we have, you start to put it together and say: ‘Oh, this was an operation in which they handed him over.’
“Obviously, they have to set the stage. President Trump says that Delcy is going to be the one to lead the transition, so Delcy is going to be the one to lead the transition.
“She’s very clear about the role she’s going to play and she’s going to try to earn a little bit of independence.”
Indeed, Ms Rodríguez, a 56-year-old lawyer with links to the oil industry, seems like a perfect candidate to work with the US.
Ms Rodríguez had served as Mr Maduro’s deputy since 2018. She entered government soon after Hugo Chávez’s 1999 election, rising steadily through the ranks.
She has served as foreign minister, the head of a constituent assembly, and while vice-president, she also assumed the roles of oil and finance minister.
In her recent role, Ms Rodríguez managed to maintain her Leftist credentials while also “becoming the face of a relative economic liberalisation”, according to Geoff Ramsey, a Latin American expert at the Atlantic Council.
Those market-friendly policies helped pull Venezuela out of the deep economic crisis that lasted throughout 2021, which led to the economy shrinking by three quarters and nearly eight million people fleeing abroad.
That feat helped her gain the favour not only of Mr Maduro, but also a significant part of the country’s business class that has ties to the government, according to Pedro Garmendia, a Venezuelan political risk and geopolitics analyst.
“They’ve come to see her as a predictable and effective figure,” he said, referring to segments of the private sector that now view Ms Rodríguez as an ally.
She can point to her family history as revolutionary proof. Her father once led an operation to kidnap an American businessman as part of a communist guerrilla group that accused the man of being a CIA operative.
Her brother Jorge is another senior figure in the system and currently presides over the country’s legislature.
She and her brother, who has been a central figure in recent negotiation efforts with the US, have become the “powerful duo” in the regime, according to Mr Garmendia.
“Both learned to live and thrive under US pressure and sanctions,” he said.
Even with those credentials, Ms Rodríguez now faces the task of rallying the coalition and avoiding being seen domestically as “a stooge for the US”, Mr Ramsey said – particularly when there are rivals within the ruling camp who could use any perceived weakness to move against her.
“Keeping everyone together will not be easy. So far she appears to be doing so,” he said, “but I think we can assume that all is not well inside the ruling party.”
Mr Trump perhaps did not help on Saturday when he claimed that Ms Rodríguez had spoken to Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, and had offered to do “whatever [we] need”.
Attempts by Ms Rodríguez to “manage the optics” within the country, and appear to be resisting the US, could be behind the initial contradicting statements between Mr Trump and Ms Rodríguez, Mr Ramsey said.
Confrontational style
Ms Rodríguez has embraced a confrontational style in her high-profile roles, unafraid to publicly attack her opponents.
After Venezuela’s suspension in 2016 from the Mercosur trade bloc, she attempted to attend one of its meetings in Buenos Aires anyway.
“Close the door on us, and we’ll go through the window,” she told the swarm of press after briefly managing to slide past security and into the building.
During his Saturday press conference, Mr Trump didn’t specify how long he envisioned Ms Rodríguez being at the helm.
“Nobody will take power. They have a vice-president, who was selected by Mr Maduro, who is currently the vice-president, and I guess is now the president,” he said.
In a later interview with the New York Post, Mr Trump said he would not deploy troops to the country if Ms Rodríguez did what he wanted.
What Mr Trump wants for Venezuela remains unclear. Whether Ms Rodríguez aligns with his wishes may hinge on which side of her political identity prevails: the revolutionary loyalist or the pragmatic power broker.
Ms Rodríguez taking power was one of two options presented to the US by the Qatari mediators, the Miami Herald reported, citing unnamed sources, the other being Miguel Rodríguez Torres, a retired general who is currently in exile.
Ms Rodríguez is understood to have a “significant relationship” with members of the Qatari royal family and hides some of her assets in the country, meaning Doha was a natural choice to act as an intermediary between her and the US.
During one meeting in the Qatari capital, a senior member of the royal family acknowledged that they were operating as a bridge between Caracas and Washington on “intelligence and economic co-operation matters”, the Miami Herald reported.
The proposals for “Madurismo without Maduro” were presented to the White House by Richard Grenell, one of Mr Trump’s special envoys, who met Mr Maduro in January last year.
An initial plan presented in April called on Mr Maduro to step down, remain in Venezuela, and give US companies access to Venezuelan oil.
In exchange, the US would drop criminal charges against the Venezuelan president and Ms Rodríguez would take charge.
But that proposal did not get off the ground, with Mr Rubio arguing that the US should settle for nothing less than regime change.
A second proposal, presented in September, suggested Ms Rodríguez head a transitional government while Mr Maduro sought exile in Qatar or Turkey.
This was also rejected by the US, which believed that the regime’s criminal structures would simply be repackaged under new leadership. “The ‘cartel lite’ was not a viable option,” one source said.
Reports on meetings between Ms Rodríguez’s team and the Americans went quiet towards the end of the year.
Intermediaries, meanwhile, assured the Trump administration that she would promote American energy investments, making her an easy choice to run at least a transitional government.
“I’ve been watching her career for a long time, so I have some sense of who she is and what she’s about,” one senior US official told the New York Times.
“I’m not claiming that she’s the permanent solution to the country’s problems, but she’s certainly someone we think we can work at a much more professional level than we were able to do with him,” the official added, referring to Mr Maduro.
However, US officials said that their relationship with the interim government would be based on whether Ms Rodríguez operated by their rules and warned that they could take further military action if she failed to respect American interests.
On Saturday night, Ms Rodríguez appeared on state television and struck a defiant tone.
“We demand the immediate liberation of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores,” she said.
Mr Trump appears to have sidelined
María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s opposition leader who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year.
Mr Trump said Ms Machado did not have the support in the country to take over from Mr Maduro, to the dismay of her supporters.
Reports suggested that her team were unable to persuade Washington that they had the capacity to take control of the state apparatus, primarily because they did not have the support of Venezuela’s military.