Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

Why isn't he going back to the bombing of infrastructure that he liked bragging about now that talks have looked like they failed, did he just realize there would be too much political backlash if he actually went through with that?
Vance has withdrawn but negotiations are technically still going on and ceasefire is still in effect.

I'm just glad this means Trump can finally stop spouting that line about how we've totally had regime change.
That shit was cringy with how obviously untrue it was.
I mean, if all the leaders have been replaced because the original office holder was bombed, doesn't that count as regime change?
No. Because there is a more-or-less unbroken line on succession; the regime is still the same even if the people have changed. At best you will see a factional change.

lol the Americans are leaving. Either somebody was playing fuckfuck games or America was just buying time for something.
Its fuckfuck games. Iran is used to Obama/Biden/Europe's cucked and spineless negotiators who will cave to their retarded demands. I think the moderate non-death cultist are screaming in panic but the IRGC retards are feeling smug believing they have won the Izzat war.

And that's also something we can't block given that shit like the Volga are what feeds into it; so even if we block the gulf they still have a direct waterway to Russia. A blockade would have some effect but they would still be able to receive and send small shipments of goods, weapons, whatever. We'd need to be bombing the fuck out of any port, dock, anything they have on the coast.
Supply from Russia on the Volga would be at best, modest. The Caspian is not a gentle lake. Russia tried to move fresh water vessels to the black sea with predictable results. Sea-going vessels, even green-water like the Capsian, are usually bad for rivers with their larger size and drafts not doing well maneuvuering down winding rivers. River vessels lack the beam strength and often engine torque needed to contend with even moderate seas becasue a lighter vessel is adventageous.

Russia could still supply Iran via their Capsian ports, but Russia's "humanitarian aid" (lol) arrived via road from Turkmenistan for a reason. The capsian ports are small and poorly equipped; there is no container ships powering the Capsian.

Russia does have a canal from the Black Sea to the Caspian (to connect the dots there: If the Caspian and the Black Sea are linked, that means ships from the Mediterranean can get to Caspian sea via the Black Sea. That means ships from the Atlantic can enter the Med, enter the black sea, and reach the Caspian.) but the canal is fairly small and vessels need to be under a certain size to transit; much, much smaller than a container ship.

But more realistically, its unlikely worth the effort to try to hit the Caspian ports. You would still permit humanitarian aid to reach Iran so they can't scream genocide.

You can tell that all their higher-level politicians have been eliminated with this kind of performance. The old guard would have actually dragged things out for the full two weeks by doing various bait-and-switches, pretending to give in on certain things only to pull back a few hours or a couple days later while shifting the tactics to other issues. By zerg-rushing the talks well after things had already kicked off, the IRGC goones ended up derailing the talks completely and limiting the amount of time their troops will have to get more munitions cleared from various rubble spots. I wouldn't be surprised if things start popping off as early as tonight.
Yeah, I'm really surprised they didn't try to run the clock on this. My guess is they assume Trump will fold.

How this woman was ever selected to be a lead negotiator with Muslims I will never understand. This is such peak self serving LinkedIn HR bullshit, I'm surprised she didn't end off with "and everyone clapped".
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"I sobbed like a little girl and they caved"
She got so fucking close to the answer. You don't play their stupid fucking game and walk away.

The Iranian was very clearly used to being pussywhipped by his wife & mother so had no idea what to do when confronted by a crying woman except cave.
I think he also figured "If this is the best they have, we can just sign whatever and then ignore it, and they won't do a fucking thing" - which is precisely what Iran did.

I'm curious, between muslim durka durka factions, woke leftists, and now the autistic right, how does it feel to know that damn near every single group that cheered on Oct 7 has been buck broken in just a 2.5 year span?
Not every group. The Democrats are still a concern.

The problem with that is that they do still have stuff and eventually can recover some of what has been bombed, so if you can't make this regime agree you have to either go take it or topple the regime otherwise this and midnight hammer(?) were basically pointless.
If the US and/or Jews bomb their oil infrastructure on the way out, Iran will have no economy to recover.
 
If the US and/or Jews bomb their oil infrastructure on the way out, Iran will have no economy to recover.
I have a feeling this happening will effectively turn them into Pakistan 2.0 but with more Chinese support, probably in return for Chinese (partial?) control of their oil fields somehow.
 
He's piloting his own plane? I like this guy now.
"They expect one of us at the negotiating table, brother."
It's been pretty well-known for years now that it's practically impossible to mine the Strait due to its depth and currents. They didn't even try during the Iran-Iraq War. They're relying solely on insurance companies and tanker captains being pussies.
No, they did try during that war. An Iranian mine getting loose and hitting a US destroyer is what triggered Operation Praying Mantis.
The legacy of Russian and Chinese knock-off shit being a pathetic imitation of American ingenuity goes back decades.
During the Cold War, Russia would often brag about having some fancy new plane that they didn't have the capability to build, but America would take the brag seriously and immediately funnel billions into building an even better plane.
That's just what happens when you aren't run by commie dipshits or suicide cultists (but I repeat myself).
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Even comes in undiluted weeb form:

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(Centurii-Chan is unironically based though.)
"god its like seeing usha's parents but somehow even more brown and retarded"
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His smile and optimism, gone.
 
The finest Just Trust Me Bro wonk has said that the US pulling Vance is part of Trump refusing to negotiate like a Eurocuck. Iran used one of its usual tactics by sending low-ranking negotiators to the talks; "You sent your vice president, we sent some minister's aid. We gain izzat by one of your top people taking to a lowly paper pusher" + the paper pusher says "Oh sure I'll listen to your proposal. But I don't hve the authority to sign this. Let me take your deal and run it up the chain". This gives Iran an idea of your negotiating position, so the next level guy comes in, restarts negotiations, but with your "final position" compromise on your asks as a starting point and all Iran's demands unchanged.

This works when Iran controls the negotiations. When they don't, Vance did what Obama's team should have done: tell them to go fuck themselves and walk away.

Anyone who doesn't like the idea of strategic martyrdom is purportedly losing their shit, IRGC hardliners are fuming that Vance used their own tactic of "Here are our demands, agree to them or don't" against them. Westerners aren't supposed to play hardball! They're supposed to meek little cucks!

I hope Vance doodled a little Prophet Muhammed on the "final" draft of the US demands he sent to them.

The ceasefire is still, until later this month, active. Provided of course that Iran or Israel don't fuck it up. tl;dr two more weeks trust the plan
Point of order:
No one has posted the details of the ceasefire agreement, but Trump said that the ceasefire was contingent on peace talks. I am not sure how much that is true and how much is Trump talking out his ass.

The talks are, theoretically, still on going - The US has just pulled Vance off the negotiating team.

You have found the hidden bonfire. Rest, weary doomscroller. Your trust in the USA has been rewarded.

The oil trade has changed since the War with Iran started, and the US is benefiting from it. ”

No no no this is impossible. The finest seething Euroserfs assured me that the US would be just as buckbroken by the Straight of Homoz being closed as they were. There is absolutely no way this could turn into a huge boost for the US economy. That just isn't allowed. Europe DEFINTIELY can't be getting utterly cucked and bootyblasted by their retarded energy policy for the second year in a row.


A couple weeks in Iran could probably have negotiated relatively favorable terms. They could probably give up their nuclear enrichment and foreign proxies and get US money for reconstruction and getting sanctions lifted. Frankly, even the things that they give up would be good for them, they were just money sinks that ended up getting them bombed in the first place. Now though? They've demonstrated that they will hold civilians of uninvolved nations hostage to get what they want and they can't be persuaded not to with reasonable concessions. At this point the only rational response from the US is to knock them into the dirt until they can't even launch effective attacks against tankers 20 miles off their coast.
Iran could have negotiated a great deal before any of this went down. They'd have free fuel for their reactors, and could have access to enriched uranium (just not HEU) as long as it was done by a third country; France would have tripped over thier own dicks attempting to oblige, provided Russia didn't beat them to it.

They could have carved out Hezbollah loopholes - since that wasn't a major point of contention at the time. Which would have let them continue to fund Hezbollah just quieter.

All that would cost them is not continuing to waste resources pursuing a nuke. They could have negotiated a ballistic missile stockpile that would be significantly greater than the "zero" the US intends to permit them now.

they could have likely traded armed response to protestors by removing some of their Basij commanders and then sobbed "muh water riots" and worked out a new round of Oil-for-Food Water humanitarian relief. The Gulf nations would still have viewed them as a tolerable evil - a bulwark or lightning rod against Western designs in the region. Now they are proven they are rabid dogs always intending to hit their neighbors no matter how hard those neighbors cucked to their demands.

They'd have all this, a living Ayatollah, and as intact of a country as they'd had before. Now, they get to be slowly raped to death.
 
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There is absolutely no way this could turn into a huge boost for the US economy.
I could care less about the European angle but the number of people whose vocabulary consisted of just the word “retarded” every time they had to describe foreign policy felt like a prank. Every single page, for weeks, they chanted “retarded” like a mantra, and I am not even offended by the word. It just felt so lazy and stupid to rely on one word to describe everything.
 
How this woman was ever selected to be a lead negotiator with Muslims I will never understand. This is such peak self serving LinkedIn HR bullshit, I'm surprised she didn't end off with "and everyone clapped".
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Imagine being bluffed, utilizing every ounce of your remaining leverage to address this bluff, humiliating yourself, and becoming a laughingstock to those across the table afterwards. They couldn't even fathom their play working to such an extent thinking they were dealing with a serious person, hence their stunned silence.

Sending a woman at all as lead negotiator to a meeting with an Islamist nation is an extremely questionable decision off the bat. This explains so much.
 
I have a feeling this happening will effectively turn them into Pakistan 2.0 but with more Chinese support, probably in return for Chinese (partial?) control of their oil fields somehow.
If Iran's oil infrastructure gets raped, you're correct. Its not that they'd never, ever rebuild. There is simply too much oil and too much money to be made. They'd get loans and it'd be rebuilt.

The issue is that oil infrastructure requires proper building and correctly machined parts. The largest suppliers are in the US. There is also a fairly small market due to the capital needed to build these things and the relatively modest market for the very expensive result. Iran would also be competing with Venezuela - which is currently a more stable, safer bet.

It would take years to rebuild and once rebuilt would be them paying off the huge loans for years - provided the Jews didn't just say "no fuck that" and send some F-35s to reset progress.

So they would be crippled for the next decade and probably longer. That will hollow out Hezbollah, and most of the Iraqi militia.

That's provided the Regime survives that long. They will have a very spicy summer as it is right now, and it will be even spicier if their currency crashes even further due to their oil economy being completely done.

How many of those 500 Iranian planes that showed up are actually going to go back to Iran?
None currently. Peacetalks are still on going, technically, the US has pulled Vance and, if we take Vance at his word, he left the rest of the US team with a team and instructions "Iran signs this, or we collapse their civilization. No more negotiations"

To be clear: This is almost certainly NOT the end of negotiations, this is the US doing what the US should do in any negotiation: tell the weaker turd-world hellhole to go get fucked if they don't come to terms.
Given we are on day 2 of talks, It is almost certain Iran will walk back their most retarded sticking points and some level of negotiations will proceed, but (again, we are taking Vance at his word about the state of things and the US position) Iran will have to come back with something that looks like a reasonable position instead of the absolutely retarded maximalist demands they've sent back.

But if talks with the regime are trump's end game, we're going to need another month of bombing before they get there.

Imagine being bluffed, utilizing every ounce of your remaining leverage to address this bluff, humiliating yourself, and becoming a laughingstock to those across the table afterwards. They couldn't even fathom their play working to such an extent thinking they were dealing with a serious person, hence their stunned silence.

Sending a woman at all as lead negotiator to a meeting with an Islamist nation is an extremely questionable decision off the bat. This explains so much.
Counter point:
You find a woman with an actual spine and no tolerance for turdworld behavior and put them on the other side of the table to humiliate Iran.
The issues with that bint was she was democrat selectee sent by paintywaist cuck to secure his legacy with the clock running down. The US should have said "fuck this" and left.

Well I know who's getting the first JDAM when things start back up.
 
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