As he hedges about his future, Gov. JB Pritzker appears to be leaning toward a third-term run next year, but it’s a decision that could have an impact on any potential 2028 White House bid of his.
The governor is indisputably the most significant political domino left standing in Illinois, with the Chicago Democrat’s next move representing the most compelling, unresolved electoral storyline left now that Democratic five-term
U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin has announced his retirement.
Even though Pritzker has not said so publicly, many in Springfield have said the governor will announce for reelection some time after state lawmakers are scheduled to finish their spring session later this month.
“I can only go on what I see, and what I see is someone who’s had a very successful two terms as governor and appears to look like he still enjoys the job,” Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch, D-Hillside, told WBEZ. “So when you’re passionate about something and enjoy something, you typically continue to do it. So my sense, just from observing him, is that he’s going to run for reelection as governor of Illinois.”
But is that what Pritzker should do if he’s remotely interested in testing the presidential waters 30 months from now and succeeding Republican President Donald Trump?
David Axelrod, former chief strategist and senior adviser to President Barack Obama in his winning 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns, said if Pritzker harbors White House ambitions, he ought to think hard about leaving Springfield after two terms because of the political volatility that being governor can bring.
“Third terms are notoriously perilous, and things that can go wrong tend to go wrong in third terms,” Axelrod said. “If your attention is divided between running for president, which is a hellacious job in itself, and … dealing with crises at home, that is a very difficult balance to strike.
“I honestly think time may be better spent for him, if he wants to run for president, traveling the country and interacting with people and not just speaking, but listening. It would enrich him as a candidate and give him a head start. So you have to balance the risks and rewards of each decision. And in my view, the risks of running again [for governor] are greater than the possible rewards,” said Axelrod, a CNN commentator and host of the political podcast “The Axe Files.”
Pritzker’s cat-and-mouse game on his plans
When Pritzker’s existing term ends in January 2027, he’ll have become the longest-serving Democratic governor in state history. Should he win and complete a full third term, he’d then be within two years of tying the record as the longest-tenured Illinois governor from either party.
On the flip side, if Pritzker relinquishes the state Executive Mansion to focus on a run for president, it would set up a historic political dynamic in Illinois. For only the second time in at least 86 years, voters would be tasked with filling vacant seats for governor and U.S. senator at the same time.
Pritzker waited until July 2021 to announce he’d be seeking a second term, and an announcement on a third term figures to follow a similar, summertime timeline.
With petition-circulating for the 2026 primary set to begin in early August, Pritzker’s campaign shed little light on the governor’s reelection thought process other than to state the obvious — that an announcement would be forthcoming.
“From nine credit upgrades to a historic plan to rebuild roads and bridges, raising the minimum wage and protecting rights, Gov. Pritzker has a long track record delivering for the people of Illinois,” Pritzker campaign spokeswoman Jordan Abudayyeh said.
“As he considers his future plans, the governor is focused on how he can best protect the people of Illinois from Trump’s destruction and continue making life better for working families,” she continued. “We expect he will make an announcement in the coming months.”
One sign that Pritzker may be eyeing reelection is that he and his campaign team have solicited input over the last few weeks about who might make a suitable running mate for him should he be on the ballot next year.
Pritzker’s lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton, appears to be out of this picture after declaring her interest in running for Durbin’s open U.S. Senate seat. Pritzker has endorsed Stratton’s Senate candidacy.
For much of the last year, Pritzker has played a cat-and-mouse game publicly about his plans.
During last summer’s Democratic National Convention, he told an interviewer from Politico that it was possible he would seek a third term.
He also offered to Illinois delegates that he didn’t have his mind set on breaking the four-term, 14-year record tenure of Republican Gov. James Thompson, set between the late 1970s and early 1990s.
Pritzker described his wife, Illinois first lady MK Pritzker, as his “term limit” and joked to delegates that “if all of you want to talk to her and convince her one way or another … you’re welcome to do that.”
As recently as three weeks ago, Pritzker told reporters he still had not made up his mind on seeking reelection. Pressed on whether his plans not to appear before Cook County Democrats during a 2026 slatemaking meeting in April could be read as a sign he is not running, the governor said, “That is a possibility.”
Potential eye on the White House
The focus on Pritzker’s gubernatorial plans comes amid a growing sense he is positioning himself for a possible 2028 presidential campaign.
He continues to showcase himself as an effective communicator and Democratic attack dog against Trump by appearing on national news shows and entertainment programs like
“Jimmy Kimmel Live” and by delivering thundering, anti-Trump messages on the stump.
In New Hampshire, a state seeking to regain its status as the first to vote in the 2028 presidential primary election, Pritzker stoked speculation in late April about his possible presidential ambitions. He
urged Democrats to take to the streets to peacefully protest the president’s attacks on immigrants, decimation of federal agencies and seeming disregard for long-established constitutional norms.
Though
Pritzker did not make the cut to be Kamala Harris’ vice presidential running mate last year, the governor has gotten high marks for his efforts to inspire a demoralized party after her crushing November loss to Trump. And he has spread money around the country through his political action committee. Just as it has been while he’s been governor, Pritzker’s ability to tap into his billionaire fortune is a major asset to make a presidential run viable.
If Pritzker seeks reelection and then opts to run for president, history has shown he’d be following a well-worn path.
Seventeen presidents had previous experience as governors, though no Illinois governor has gone on to be president.
Overall, six presidents won the White House as sitting governors, according to Rutgers University’s
Eagleton Institute of Politics. The most recent example was Republican George W. Bush, who won the 2000 presidential election while he was Texas governor. Before him, Democrat Bill Clinton ran for and won the presidency in 1992 while serving as Arkansas governor.
Seven other presidents were elected after stepping down as governor, including Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980, the Eagleton Institute noted.
Eleven times, sitting governors were their party’s presidential nominees but lost the election, including Democratic Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson in 1952, who even lost his home state that year.
Democratic political strategist Pete Giangreco had roles in nine presidential campaigns dating back to 1984, including Obama’s two victories and the 1992 and 1996 wins by Clinton. Like Axelrod, Giangreco sees more time in Illinois’ Executive Mansion as a move fraught with risk for Pritzker if the governor has any desire to seek the White House.
“In my mind, there’s no reason to run for a third term as governor to improve your chances of being president,” Giangreco said in an interview, adding that Pritzker already has “got a great record to run on.”
Giangreco warned that Trump has great ability to undermine Pritzker by retaliating against him and the state for any barbs to which the president takes offense.
“Every time Gov. Pritzker goes to New Hampshire and starts swinging a bat at the president, the president’s going to retaliate,” Giangreco said. “If you have a guy at 1600 Pennsylvania who wakes up every morning trying to figure out how to screw Illinois because the governor said something, that’s like a new dynamic that no one’s ever seen before. It’s like you can do one or the other: You can govern or you can run for president.
“The stakes are too high to try to do both,” Giangreco said.
But back in Springfield, some of Pritzker’s closest allies say they hope he runs for reelection and that he can be both governor, and down the line, a presidential candidate should he choose that route.
“We built up incredible momentum in turning the state around, and I have enjoyed working with him, so I certainly hope he’ll consider running for reelection,” Senate President Don Harmon, D-Oak Park, told WBEZ. “I know that there’s work left to do, and if the nation calls after that, we can certainly find a way to have that conversation in Springfield.
“He is an excellent governor with an excellent staff. I imagine that they can do more than they’re doing now, without it being considered a distraction,” Harmon said, alluding to a scenario where Pritzker wins reelection and becomes a presidential candidate. “It would be a challenge, but we live in unprecedented times when we need to take on those sorts of challenges.”
Dave McKinney covers Illinois politics and government for WBEZ and was the longtime Springfield bureau chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.
