Putin took a group that acted like a herd of skittish cats and through aggression managed to do what no other person in history has ever done, unify Europe (unintentionally against him). Instead of neo-lib bullshit of Merkel and Junker from 2016, you've got them streamlining industry, openly co-operating and collectively increasing their military numbers and capability. He created a new economic and military threat by invading the Ukraine, where as if he'd just sat back he's have a bickering block of Eurocrats still reliant on his gas and oil.
I don't have a crystal ball and I wouldn't have predicted this outcome, but it's obvious the invasion (coupled with the fact it's turned into an expensive grind) has put Putin's Russia in a worse position. Playing Captain Hindsight he would have been better doing nothing at all.