The only big movies I know that have done well so far/made profit is Mortal Kombat (because of its low budget) and Godzilla vs. Kong (because of its low marketing cost/recognizable movie figures).
MK flopped, only grossed $84 million on a $55 budget, however, within America seems to have the highest opening day streaming numbers for any movie so far this year, that is on all streaming platforms not just HBO Max, also The Suicide Squad isn't too far behind that number.
In terms of hits this year not from China, F9 is the biggest one with a gross over $662M, Godzilla vs Kong is next with $467 million, as of now there were the last two big western releases in China, and in the case of GvK it did do badly in American with only a gross of $80 million.
Black Widow will break even with Disney+ rental money
A Quiet Place 2 is a hit, $61 million budget nearly $300million box office
Cruella has made $221million on a budget of $100million, and that is without Disney+ money
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It $40 million budget vs $200million box office
Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway $45 million vs $150 million box office
The box office did seem to have been recovering, however, the increases of the covid delta variant put a stop to that, as seen with the huge drop between Black Widows first and the second weekend, along with no movie after getting past $40 million openings, the lack of a Chinese market is also for sure hurting many movies such as Space Jam 2 and Black Widow which likely would become profitable with that market.
The real question is how much importance is WB putting on the box office right now compared to HBO Max. Even if Suicide Squad has legs it likely won't do much better than Cruella or the Conjuring, which normally would be pretty bad with its budget, however, let's say it gets a $200million box office, that would more than cover the marketing and some of the cost of making the movie, thus making it a cheaper investment to have on HBO Max, rather then it if was on just HBO Max and not the cinema.
After Wonder Woman 84 did well for HBO (which was lower than both MK, and TSS, also likely TSS will do better in cinemas), WB said they will be making a number of exclusive HBO Max DC movies, so HBO Max numbers have to got to have some importance just a question of how much.