Business Debt Has Entered the A.I. Boom - To fund heavy spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence, companies have leveraged a growing list of complex debt-financing options.


To fund heavy spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence, companies have leveraged a growing list of complex debt-financing options.

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Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon have together spent $112 billion on capital expenditures in the past three months alone.

By Ian Frisch
Nov. 8, 2025

Like many companies trying to keep up in the A.I. boom, QTS Data Centers, a digital infrastructure company that’s wholly owned by the investment giant Blackstone, has been dropping billions of dollars to expand its network of cutting-edge computing facilities. It has also, like a growing number of fellow tech companies, found a way to unlock additional (and much-needed) cash: exotic financial instruments.

According to an investor offering sheet obtained by DealBook, Blackstone is on the cusp of closing a $3.46 billion commercial-mortgage-backed securities (C.M.B.S.) offering to refinance debt held by QTS, the biggest player in the artificial intelligence infrastructure market. It would be the largest deal of its type this year in a fast-accelerating market. (Blackstone declined to comment.)

The bonds would be backed by 10 data centers in six markets (including Atlanta, Dallas and Norfolk, Va.) that together consume enough energy to power Burlington, Vt., for half a decade.

Blackstone’s offering is part of the latest push in the A.I. infrastructure financing blitz. According to McKinsey, $7 trillion in data center investment will be required by 2030 to keep up with projected demand. Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon have together spent $112 billion on capital expenditures in the past three months alone.

The sheer scale of spending is spooking investors: Meta’s stock tumbled 11 percent after the company revealed its aggressive capital expenditure plans last week, and tech stocks have sold off this week on overvaluation fears.

Now, the tech giants are turning to financing maneuvers that may add to the risk. To obtain the capital they need, hyperscalers have leveraged a growing list of complex debt-financing options, including corporate debt, securitization markets, private financing and off-balance-sheet vehicles. That shift is fueling speculation that A.I. investments are turning into a game of musical chairs whose financial instruments are reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis.

Big tech companies are looking for new sources of financing. While Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Google previously relied on their own cash flow to invest in data centers, more recently they’ve turned to loans. To diversify their debt, they’re repackaging much of it as asset-backed securities (A.B.S.). About $13.3 billion in A.B.S. backed by data centers has been issued across 27 transactions this year, a 55 percent increase over 2024.

If investors want to buy data center A.B.S., they have two options, according to Sarah McDonald, a senior vice president in the capital solutions group at Goldman Sachs: They can invest in a data center that has one tenant, like a hyperscaler, or in a co-location data center, which has thousands of smaller tenants. The former is an investment-grade tenant with a long-term lease, but the risk is highly concentrated; the latter is most likely renting out to noninvestment-grade tenants with short-term leases, but the investment is extremely diversified.

Digital infrastructure “is something that investors have a huge appetite for,” McDonald said.

Despite the increase in popularity, data center securities are just a small slice of the A.B.S. market, which is dominated by credit card, auto, consumer and student loans.

Blackstone’s $3.46 billion C.M.B.S. offering may seem like small potatoes compared with some other debt-fueled deals,
such as Meta’s $30 billion corporate offering to finance its data center in Louisiana. But it’s unprecedented for the C.M.B.S. market, where issuance for data-center-backed deals was just $3 billion for all of 2024.

“They realize how much cash they’re going to need, so they’re getting the C.M.B.S. market comfortable with this type of asset,” said Dan McNamara, the founder and chief investment officer of Polpo Capital, a hedge fund that focuses on C.M.B.S. He added that while most traders in the market were well versed in assets like office space or industrial buildings, with data centers, “it’s not traditional ‘bricks and sticks’ commercial real estate.”

To complicate matters further, the share of single-asset-single-borrower securities (S.A.S.B.) — for example, the assets inside the bond being sold are all from the same company or a single data center — is rising, with 13 percent of all S.A.S.B. deals coming from data centers, according to Goldman Sachs.

“It’s one company, and these assets are quite similar. If there’s a problem with A.I. data centers, like if their current chips are obsolete in five years, you could have big losses in these deals,” McNamara said. “That’s the knock on S.A.S.B.: When things go bad, they go really bad.”

Also at play: a financial tool that came into vogue before the financial crisis. Called a special purpose vehicle (S.P.V.), it’s a legal entity that allows a company to take on a lot of debt without having to hold it on its own balance sheet.

When Meta structured its $30 billion debt offering for its new data center in Louisiana — the largest private capital transaction on record — Morgan Stanley arranged the debt to sit in one of these custom, off-balance-sheet vehicles. Although the S.P.V. was created to service Meta, the debt technically belongs to the S.P.V., not Meta, which makes Meta look healthier on paper.

The maneuver made it easier for Meta to raise another $30 billion in the more traditional corporate bond market. Overall, according to Morgan Stanley, $800 billion in private credit will be needed over the next two years to fund data centers. And S.P.V.s are becoming a more popular way to structure it. Following Meta’s lead, Elon Musk’s xAI is also tapping an S.P.V. to potentially hold $20 billion in debt to buy Nvidia chips and then rent them to xAI.

Are murky financial instruments spreading the risk of the A.I. spending frenzy? According to Menlo Ventures, only 3 percent of consumers pay for A.I.-related services, amounting to about $12 billion per year. If hyperscalers are unable to generate enough profit to offset the costs related to capital expenditures, systemic risk could enter credit markets.

In October, the Bank of England wrote that, as companies continue to shift from using their own cash flow to amassing debt for data centers, risk will continue to mount. “This is a fast-evolving topic, and the future is highly uncertain,” the bank wrote.
 
Will this be more like the dot-com bubble or the crash of '08?
This is more of a DoT.com bubble than the 08 Crash. Made a shitload of money before it tanked.

1.0 The Dot.com crashed because of all of the shit they promised back then did not happen. Similar to what is happening now

2.0 There was an economic slowdown that did happened which cause me to leave the market 6 months before everything collasped. The economic slowdown of now started several months ago and it looks like it is not getting better.

3.0. You have a few major corporations keeping the stock prices going upward. This is like the Magnificent 7 keeping the stocks rising higher and IMHO over inflating their value.

So yea. Similar pattern of greed that is happening.
 

Two months ago, when nobody was talking about the coming AI debt tsunami needed to bankroll trillions in data-center capex, and nobody was paying attention to Oracle's CDS quietly blow out, and well ahead of the Bank of England's AI valuation warning, we published "The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk," essentially laying out all the weakest links in the swelling global AI bubble.

In the report, we laid out the ridiculous circle-jerk vendor financing schemes concocted by the handful of top players to pretend their revenue is growing at a rapid pace. We also called it an "infinite money glitch"...

Most notably, the players.

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Fast-forward to Tuesday: the AI bubble keeps deflating, hyperscalers are under pressure, Bitcoin trading in the $92k range, and Microsoft and Amazon were just downgraded to neutral by Rothschild & Co. and Redburn's Alexander Haissl. Now comes fresh news from Microsoft and Nvidia, attempting to revive the AI hype with yet another round of circle-jerking.

Bloomberg reports Microsoft and Nvidia will invest up to $15 billion in Anthropic. As part of the agreement, Anthropic will purchase $30 billion of compute from Microsoft's Azure, which only confirms more circle-jerking.

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"We are increasingly going to be customers of each other — we will use Anthropic models, they will use our infrastructure, and we will go to market together," Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated in a video, adding, "Of course, this all builds on the partnership we have with OpenAI, which remains a critical partner for Microsoft."

Satya Nadella explains how the circle jerk works: "We are increasingly going to be customers of each other — we will use Anthropic models, they will use our infrastructure, and we will go to market together"

And the US taxpayer will bail out everyone.

The end. https://t.co/WIHEzmZOlz
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 18, 2025
To support the AI-infrastructure buildout, Anthropic plans to spend $50 billion building AI data centers across multiple states. The AI company is simultaneously partnered with Google, which agreed in October to supply up to 1 million AI chips.

Earlier, analyst Haissl warned that the bullish case around generative AI is no longer clear and hyperscalers should be approached with caution.

He noted the industry's "trust us - Gen-AI is just like early cloud 1.0" pitch is flawed and that the underlying economics are far weaker than assumed.

Building on Haissl's warning, we've been very early in covering Oracle's CDS blowout, even offering warnings about AI debt and valuations well before the Bank of England.

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Bad news for the AI stocks.

With all free cash flow going into chatbot data center capex, there is nothing left for buybacks and dividends. pic.twitter.com/RcqzDhHLv6

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 3, 2025
As we've previously joked.

at this rate tomorrow morning we will get this headline

*OPENAI SIGNS DEAL WITH OPENAI TO BUY AND SELL $100 TRILLION WORTH OF STUFF TO AND FROM ITSELF
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 4, 2025
Morgan Stanley analysts need to add Anthropic to the circle jerking.

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Harris Kupperman, CIO of Praetorian Capital, posted the following on X,

Love how shareholders look at this deal, realize that this guarantees big losses for years into the future, and sell them like they're shale shit-cos promising to raise production in a $50 oil environment. Welcome to 2016 tech bros. The multiple compression is only just starting...
Rihard Jarc, co-founder and CIO of New Era Funds, pointed out that multiple narratives are converging in the Microsoft-Nvidia-Anthropic partnership:

So many narratives are at play here in the Microsoft-Nvidia-Anthropic partnership:

  1. Nvidia saw Anthropic do a deal with Google's TPUs and Amazon's Trainium, so it had to ensure Anthropic stays committed to Nvidia hardware.
  2. Microsoft is signaling that its future isn't dependent on OpenAI alone.
  3. Anthropic is showing investors it can line up splashy partnerships and meaningful letter-of-intent orders.
  4. And all of them timed this announcement to land on the same day as Google's Gemini 3.0 release - because if Google wins the frontier-model race decisively, all three would feel the pressure.
So many narratives are at play here at the $MSFT & $NVDA & Anthropic partnership IMO:

1. $NVDA saw Anthropic do a deal with $GOOGL TPUs, & $AMZN Trainium so it had to make sure Anthropic will use $NVDA

2. $MSFT showing that its fate is not dependent on OpenAI.

3. Anthropic is showing investors that it, too, can make splashy partnerships and letter of intent orders.

4. And for all of them making this release on the date of $GOOGL's Gemini 3.0. Because if $GOOGL wins, all three would have issues.

— Rihard Jarc (@RihardJarc) November 18, 2025
How does all this end? Trump's AI advisor, David Sacks may have offered a clue: "There will be no federal bailout for AI. The U.S. has at least five major frontier-model companies. If one fails, others will take its place."
@Sexy Senior Citizen
 
There's more to be lost than gain at this point. Though I'm not a finance pro or expert.

this is the time to pull out. not to get in.
Well we're if using the dot-com bubble and the financial disaster surrounding that as a lesson to learn from in this situation, one would think there will be a handful of winners (think of what ultimately happened to Amazon) once the bubble pops. Figuring out which companies will survive is the hard part.
 
Última edición:
Well we're if using the dot-com bubble and the financial disaster surrounding that as a lesson to learn from in this situation, one would think there will be a handful of winners (think of what ultimately happened to Amazon) once the bubble pops. Figuring out which companies will survive is the hard part.
I severely doubt nvidia is gonna die from the popping of the bubble. you'll probably take a bath on the stock price if you buy now. But they're still the best gaming GPU maker in the business. AMD and Intel are alright too.
 
I severely doubt nvidia is gonna die from the popping of the bubble. you'll probably take a bath on the stock price if you buy now. But they're still the best gaming GPU maker in the business. AMD and Intel are alright too.
Gaming is a small fraction of NVidia's total revenue - 10%, maybe less. And NVidia has leveraged itself to the hilt by giving money to companies so they'll buy GPUs from NVidia that NVidia immediately leases.

It may not go under but everyone said Corning would be fine during the dotcom boom, and it still hasn't reached the 2000 peak 25 years later.
 
There's more to be lost than gain at this point. Though I'm not a finance pro or expert.

this is the time to pull out. not to get in.
If you short sell, you could make money. Michael Burry of The Big Short fame is shorting both Nvidia and Palantir. However, short selling is for experts, and spoiler alert, but neither you nor I are experts.
 
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