Business Debt Has Entered the A.I. Boom - To fund heavy spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence, companies have leveraged a growing list of complex debt-financing options.


To fund heavy spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence, companies have leveraged a growing list of complex debt-financing options.

95c5aa58cd81e184107827fcaf74da2a78288b58.webp
Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon have together spent $112 billion on capital expenditures in the past three months alone.

By Ian Frisch
Nov. 8, 2025

Like many companies trying to keep up in the A.I. boom, QTS Data Centers, a digital infrastructure company that’s wholly owned by the investment giant Blackstone, has been dropping billions of dollars to expand its network of cutting-edge computing facilities. It has also, like a growing number of fellow tech companies, found a way to unlock additional (and much-needed) cash: exotic financial instruments.

According to an investor offering sheet obtained by DealBook, Blackstone is on the cusp of closing a $3.46 billion commercial-mortgage-backed securities (C.M.B.S.) offering to refinance debt held by QTS, the biggest player in the artificial intelligence infrastructure market. It would be the largest deal of its type this year in a fast-accelerating market. (Blackstone declined to comment.)

The bonds would be backed by 10 data centers in six markets (including Atlanta, Dallas and Norfolk, Va.) that together consume enough energy to power Burlington, Vt., for half a decade.

Blackstone’s offering is part of the latest push in the A.I. infrastructure financing blitz. According to McKinsey, $7 trillion in data center investment will be required by 2030 to keep up with projected demand. Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon have together spent $112 billion on capital expenditures in the past three months alone.

The sheer scale of spending is spooking investors: Meta’s stock tumbled 11 percent after the company revealed its aggressive capital expenditure plans last week, and tech stocks have sold off this week on overvaluation fears.

Now, the tech giants are turning to financing maneuvers that may add to the risk. To obtain the capital they need, hyperscalers have leveraged a growing list of complex debt-financing options, including corporate debt, securitization markets, private financing and off-balance-sheet vehicles. That shift is fueling speculation that A.I. investments are turning into a game of musical chairs whose financial instruments are reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis.

Big tech companies are looking for new sources of financing. While Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Google previously relied on their own cash flow to invest in data centers, more recently they’ve turned to loans. To diversify their debt, they’re repackaging much of it as asset-backed securities (A.B.S.). About $13.3 billion in A.B.S. backed by data centers has been issued across 27 transactions this year, a 55 percent increase over 2024.

If investors want to buy data center A.B.S., they have two options, according to Sarah McDonald, a senior vice president in the capital solutions group at Goldman Sachs: They can invest in a data center that has one tenant, like a hyperscaler, or in a co-location data center, which has thousands of smaller tenants. The former is an investment-grade tenant with a long-term lease, but the risk is highly concentrated; the latter is most likely renting out to noninvestment-grade tenants with short-term leases, but the investment is extremely diversified.

Digital infrastructure “is something that investors have a huge appetite for,” McDonald said.

Despite the increase in popularity, data center securities are just a small slice of the A.B.S. market, which is dominated by credit card, auto, consumer and student loans.

Blackstone’s $3.46 billion C.M.B.S. offering may seem like small potatoes compared with some other debt-fueled deals,
such as Meta’s $30 billion corporate offering to finance its data center in Louisiana. But it’s unprecedented for the C.M.B.S. market, where issuance for data-center-backed deals was just $3 billion for all of 2024.

“They realize how much cash they’re going to need, so they’re getting the C.M.B.S. market comfortable with this type of asset,” said Dan McNamara, the founder and chief investment officer of Polpo Capital, a hedge fund that focuses on C.M.B.S. He added that while most traders in the market were well versed in assets like office space or industrial buildings, with data centers, “it’s not traditional ‘bricks and sticks’ commercial real estate.”

To complicate matters further, the share of single-asset-single-borrower securities (S.A.S.B.) — for example, the assets inside the bond being sold are all from the same company or a single data center — is rising, with 13 percent of all S.A.S.B. deals coming from data centers, according to Goldman Sachs.

“It’s one company, and these assets are quite similar. If there’s a problem with A.I. data centers, like if their current chips are obsolete in five years, you could have big losses in these deals,” McNamara said. “That’s the knock on S.A.S.B.: When things go bad, they go really bad.”

Also at play: a financial tool that came into vogue before the financial crisis. Called a special purpose vehicle (S.P.V.), it’s a legal entity that allows a company to take on a lot of debt without having to hold it on its own balance sheet.

When Meta structured its $30 billion debt offering for its new data center in Louisiana — the largest private capital transaction on record — Morgan Stanley arranged the debt to sit in one of these custom, off-balance-sheet vehicles. Although the S.P.V. was created to service Meta, the debt technically belongs to the S.P.V., not Meta, which makes Meta look healthier on paper.

The maneuver made it easier for Meta to raise another $30 billion in the more traditional corporate bond market. Overall, according to Morgan Stanley, $800 billion in private credit will be needed over the next two years to fund data centers. And S.P.V.s are becoming a more popular way to structure it. Following Meta’s lead, Elon Musk’s xAI is also tapping an S.P.V. to potentially hold $20 billion in debt to buy Nvidia chips and then rent them to xAI.

Are murky financial instruments spreading the risk of the A.I. spending frenzy? According to Menlo Ventures, only 3 percent of consumers pay for A.I.-related services, amounting to about $12 billion per year. If hyperscalers are unable to generate enough profit to offset the costs related to capital expenditures, systemic risk could enter credit markets.

In October, the Bank of England wrote that, as companies continue to shift from using their own cash flow to amassing debt for data centers, risk will continue to mount. “This is a fast-evolving topic, and the future is highly uncertain,” the bank wrote.
 
I assume better minds than mine are hard are work developing false flags to trigger bad buys and collapse the entire industry (faster)
Or at least I hope there are.
 
I hope this AI shit will be unsustainable and collapses completely along with at least some of big tech.
AI has what's called a "circular money" problem. Basically, all these tech companies are passing around the same lump of money and pretending it's economic growth.

To give a graphic and entirely unrelated example: imagine if you and Hollywood Hulk Hogan were walking along and you came across a cow pie. HHH gives you a million dollars, and you eat the cow pie. Five minutes later, you come across another cow pie You give HHH the million back to eat the cow pie, and he does. To a normal person, it looks like you both just ate shit, neither of you are any richer, and you're both going to be violently sick. But to an economist, you created 2 jobs and increased the GDP by $2,000,000.

We are currently in the "eat cow pies for the same pile of money" phase, and there's signs the economy is going to get sick. The longer the Eternal Boomer props up this relentless expansion, the worse the pop will be.

The question isn't "Is A.I. a bubble?", the question is "How catastrophic will it be when it pops?"
The economy is so fake and gay I wouldn't be surprised if it stays propped up until the boomer's last dying breath
It will be catastrophic- dare I say, 1929 levels of catastrophe. Of course, the Eternal Boomer won't countenance a 10% drop in their portfolio, let alone a 75% one. The government will bail out floundering companies that would otherwise go under.
 
To fund heavy spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence,
Which is also going to be used for surveillance and general control grid shenanigans. These data centres and their power supply, will be built at the expense of the taxpayer and used for all the nasty things the government and corporate overlords want to use them for
 
imagine if you and Hollywood Hulk Hogan were walking along and you came across a cow pie. HHH gives you a million dollars, and you eat the cow pie. Five minutes later, you come across another cow pie You give HHH the million back to eat the cow pie, and he does. To a normal person, it looks like you both just ate shit, neither of you are any richer, and you're both going to be violently sick. But to an economist, you created 2 jobs and increased the GDP by $2,000,000.
Is this India's plan to become a global superpower by 2030?
 
When Meta structured its $30 billion debt offering for its new data center in Louisiana — the largest private capital transaction on record — Morgan Stanley arranged the debt to sit in one of these custom, off-balance-sheet vehicles. Although the S.P.V. was created to service Meta, the debt technically belongs to the S.P.V., not Meta, which makes Meta look healthier on paper.

The maneuver made it easier for Meta to raise another $30 billion in the more traditional corporate bond market. Overall, according to Morgan Stanley, $800 billion in private credit will be needed over the next two years to fund data centers. And S.P.V.s are becoming a more popular way to structure it. Following Meta’s lead, Elon Musk’s xAI is also tapping an S.P.V. to potentially hold $20 billion in debt to buy Nvidia chips and then rent them to xAI.
So who is on the hook when the bonds go belly up? Morgan Stanley? Meta? This "SPV" that doesn't exist?

I hope not, Trump has mentioned not giving bailouts but I am skeptical. It would be amazing if he stood his ground and said no to them.
His AI czar said no bailouts too. David Sacks has some axes to grind against big tech since he's conservative so hopefully he sticks to it.
 
AI has what's called a "circular money" problem. Basically, all these tech companies are passing around the same lump of money and pretending it's economic growth.

To give a graphic and entirely unrelated example: imagine if you and Hollywood Hulk Hogan were walking along and you came across a cow pie. HHH gives you a million dollars, and you eat the cow pie. Five minutes later, you come across another cow pie You give HHH the million back to eat the cow pie, and he does. To a normal person, it looks like you both just ate shit, neither of you are any richer, and you're both going to be violently sick. But to an economist, you created 2 jobs and increased the GDP by $2,000,000.

We are currently in the "eat cow pies for the same pile of money" phase, and there's signs the economy is going to get sick. The longer the Eternal Boomer props up this relentless expansion, the worse the pop will be.
This is only a problem if no value is being created in the exchange.

And since we're talking about AI, we can assume there's very little actual value being created to anyone.
 
The question isn't "Is A.I. a bubble?", the question is "How catastrophic will it be when it pops?"
Will this be more like the dot-com bubble or the crash of '08?
Remember that old "dot com bubble"? Although nowadays, the internets is so widespread that it's eliminating physical businesses (like video rental and a number of malls). If the AI bubble bursts, hopefully the crappy aspects of it -- like pozzed LLMs which far too many people outsource their thinking to, or those LLM "answers" -- goes with it...
 
Última edición:
Also at play: a financial tool that came into vogue before the financial crisis. Called a special purpose vehicle (S.P.V.), it’s a legal entity that allows a company to take on a lot of debt without having to hold it on its own balance sheet.

Yeah. Essentially that was the Enron business model maybe 20 years ago. The debt is kept is kept off the balance sheet to make all the numbers publically reported by the company look great to the market, but the company has to pay to service the debt. I guess enough time has passed that people have forgotten.

Alot of the financing growth in this is due to the slump in general real estate. The other dirty part of this is that many of the consumers of this debt are private equity funds. Private equity funds today are investment funds which self-value the assets they hold and don't let people have their money back. I suspect quite a bit of this financing is designed to create a more profitable set of real estate assets for private equity versus commercial and residential real estate.

I would also suspect that they are also leveraging their own overvalued stock prices (the tech companies) to take on all this debt.

There should eventually be some rather lucrative 2008-style investment opportunities around what are going to be enormous piles of bad debt related to data centers.

All of this is total insanity. Sam Altman is not on the brink of building skynet nor are the Silicon Valley bros getting their robot terminator bodies soon.
 
I hope not, Trump has mentioned not giving bailouts but I am skeptical. It would be amazing if he stood his ground and said no to them.
Bruh, I knew people who lost everything, but the banks got their money back. Pretty sure the comment you were replying to was talking about small fish, not hedge funds. That's heartless.
 
AI has what's called a "circular money" problem. Basically, all these tech companies are passing around the same lump of money and pretending it's economic growth.
You have to look where that money they're spending came from for it to be definitively circular money. Tech companies have had growing cash piles for over a decade now with nothing they wanted to invest in with the enthusiasm they're now investing with. If you're only paying attention to the flow of the money and not where it came from and previous decades of investing habits by the big tech companies you'll only see "circular money" but that's not entirely true when you see the bigger picture. It *might* be circular money or it *might* be another petrodollar level maneuver.
 
Tech companies have had growing cash piles for over a decade now with nothing they wanted to invest in with the enthusiasm they're now investing with. If you're only paying attention to the flow of the money and not where it came from and previous decades of investing habits by the big tech companies you'll only see "circular money" but that's not entirely true when you see the bigger picture.
This is true. However, this begs the question: is anything of actual value being built? AI has a lot of potential, but it's been trained on bad data (i.e. from Reddit and Wikipedia), which seriously hampers its usefulness. Factor in jeet coding, and I think it's safe to say AI, as it is today, isn't as valuable as Big Tech says it is.

His AI czar said no bailouts too. David Sacks has some axes to grind against big tech since he's conservative so hopefully he sticks to it.
What shade of black will you wear to his funeral when he inevitably commits suicide by two bullets to the back of the head? I'm personally thinking something charcoal.

Is this India's plan to become a global superpower by 2030?
Poo gives you great super powers saar
 
Bruh, I knew people who lost everything, but the banks got their money back. Pretty sure the comment you were replying to was talking about small fish, not hedge funds. That's heartless.

Giving bailouts to hedge funds and banks was worse in the long run than if they had just allowed them to fail. My post means that Trump said no bailouts for business, and I hope he holds to that and when it pops he tells all the AI startups and shit like Nvidia and OpenAI to suck a lemon.
 
Atrás
Top Abajo