Science Betelgeuse confounds scientists yet again by getting 50% brighter

From Cosmos Magazine, archive.
6 June 2023 / Evrim Yazgin

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Betelgeuse, the 10th-brightest star in the night sky, is toying with astronomers yet again. This time it has become 50 percent brighter.

The increase in brightness has some speculating whether we’re on the verge of witnessing a Betelgeuse supernova. Thankfully, at about 724 light years from Earth, we would not be adversely affected, yet we would be able to see the awesome flash caused by such an event.

Betelgeuse has been getting darker and brighter in recent years. In 2019, the star dimmed to approximately one-third its normal brightness.
(N.B. Kiwi Farms had an A&N thread on the 2019 "great dimming")

Observations accidentally captured by the Himawari-8 weather satellite suggest the “Great Dimming” was caused by a combination of the star’s cooling and condensation by a nearby dust cloud.

Just a few years later, Betelgeuse is showing that it is not just a one-trick pony.

The red supergiant is the second-brightest star in the Orion constellation. It’s also what is known as a pulsating semiregular variable star. This basically means that its brightness changes on a roughly periodic basis.

Betelgeuse has a 400-day brightness changing cycle. It also has a 125-day cycle, a 230-day cycle, and a 2,200-day cycle.

The star is nearing the end of its life. It’s believed that 8-8.5 million years ago, Betelgeuse left the main sequence of stars and became a red supergiant. This means that the star used up all its hydrogen fuel, fusing it into helium, causing an expansion and cooling of the star.

Now fusing helium into heavier elements like carbon, eventually the star will produce even heavier elements and explode in a supernova.

Some astronomers believe the star is in the latter stages of this process. But how long it has left remains unclear. Even determining where in its evolution Betelgeuse lies is not clear cut and some astronomers suggest that it hasn’t even finished burning its helium.

A study, submitted for peer review, examining the recent increase in the star’s brightness suggests a number of possibilities for the star’s increased visibility. One of them is that Betelgeuse might be going supernova within 10 years. But this isn’t the only possible outcome.

The authors write: “In fact, it is not possible to determine the exact evolutionary stage, because surface conditions hardly change in the late stage close to the carbon exhaustion and beyond.”

Despite the uncertainty around the exact timing, one thing is certain: Betelgeuse will go supernova. Eventually.

And when it does, it will light up the night sky.

The brightest supernova in recorded history, now known as SN 1006, occurred in the year 1006 CE and was visible for months. Some scientists and historians believe that the supernova was so bright that people living over a thousand years ago could read under its light.

Benedictine monks in Switzerland wrote about a star “glittering in aspect and dazzling the eyes, causing alarm.” Egyptian physician and astronomer Ali ibn Ridwan wrote that “the sky was shining” and calculated that the supernova was three times as bright as Venus. Modern astronomers estimate that the star exploded about 7,200 light years from us.

The last supernova to occur in the Milky Way galaxy was recorded by German astronomer Johannes Kepler in 1604. It lasted several weeks. Now known as SN 1604 or “Kepler’s supernova,” and described in Kepler’s book De Stella Nova, the star became brighter than Jupiter and Mars at its brightest.

When Betelgeuse explodes, astronomers believe the supernova may be as bright as the sun.
 
I think the eggheads calculated that we won't be in the path of its ray.

It will possibly go nova in a few thousand years. Like the hohol counter offensive, expect its coming in the year 42023 of our Emperor.

It isn't impossible but very unlikely a fireworks lottery of generations.
 
I remember watching the Hale-Bopp comet back in the 90s, it was spellbinding. I guess it probably won't happen, but I'd love to see a supernova in my lifetime, I can only imagine how incredible it must be.
 
This is cool news, but what is even more fun to consider is that we are watching something that already happened in real time as light takes a long time to reach us from the source.
 
It would be fun to witness. What kind of effects would it have physically on earth? There was a mass extinction that’s been linked to a much closer one. Even at the distance Betelgeuse is at wouldnt we see ozone damage and maybe the kind of proton damage that our own sun spits out every so often? If we do it could damage communication and satellites.
 
It would be fun to witness. What kind of effects would it have physically on earth? There was a mass extinction that’s been linked to a much closer one. Even at the distance Betelgeuse is at wouldnt we see ozone damage and maybe the kind of proton damage that our own sun spits out every so often? If we do it could damage communication and satellites.
It depends if we're directly in the path of the gamma ray burst that accompanies the supernova. I mean we didn't experience a mass calamity in 1003, so it's possible to witness it and not get cooked.
 
It's preparing to attack.
What you say? Some one set us up the bomb!?
I'd love to see a supernova in my lifetime, I can only imagine how incredible it must be.
"I've never seen a supernova explode before but if it's anything like my old Chevy Nova it will light up the night sky!"
-Phillip J. Fry

Betelgeuse confounds scientists yet again by getting 50% brighter
Lori Lightfoot finally got her G.E.D.?
 
Let us just hope so. Because the alternative is an extinction event.
The other supernova they refer to was about 10 times further away and still provided enough radiation so folks could read a night.
Something of equal size, if it is of equal size, at a tenth of the distance would radiate on us 10^3 times as much energy.
well it wouldn't BE 24/7 because the earth still rotates.
 
1, it will appear close to the sun. Imagine that instead of one sun you have TWO suns. How many days before pretty much every farm and field have been dried out and all vegetation has died? That sounds at best like extremely severe global food shortages and buushfires like we have never seen before.
On the bright side they'll be able to film the remake of ANH with no need to edit a second sun in.

Hope all you Kiwis like moisture farming and fending off Sand People.
 
Not to rain on the doomsday parade, but I think that article may have been overstating things. Though who knows.

Forbes article regarding visibility, etc
Neutrino detectors will go crazy if Betelgeuse goes supernova, but will we all see it? That depends on when it occurs because Orion is a seasonal constellation. It’s most easily visible to everyone on the planet from December through May. If Betelgeuse goes supernova during the northern hemisphere’s winter months (the southern hemispheres summer months), then great—we’ll all see it shine super-brightly at night. We might have to get up early, or stay out late, to see it at other times of the year, but if the super-rare event occurs in June, July or August when the sun appears to shine from close to Orion, then it won’t be much of a spectacle at all.


Even nerdier article about the brightness.
All of a sudden, the luminosity of Betelgeuse would spike by about a factor of 7,000 from its previously steady value. It would go from one of the brightest stars in the night sky to the brightness of a thin crescent Moon: about 40 times brighter than the planet Venus. That peak brightness would only last for a few minutes before falling again back to being just about 5 times brighter than it previously was, but then the traditional supernova rise begins.

Over a time period of approximately 10 days, the brightness of Betelgeuse will gradually rise, eventually becoming about as bright as the full Moon. Its brightness will surpass all the stars and planets after about an hour, will reach that of a half Moon in three days, and will reach its maximum brightness after approximately 10 days. To skywatchers across the globe, Betelgeuse will appear to be even brighter than the full Moon, as instead of being spread out over half a degree (like the full Moon), all of its brightness will be concentrated into a single, solitary, saturated point.

The supernova, after reaching maximum brightness, will slowly begin to fade over the timespan of about a month, becoming about as dim as a half Moon after 30 days time.

Over the next two months, however, its brightness will plateau, becoming dimmer only to instruments and astrophotographers; the typical human eye will not be able to discern a change in brightness over this time. All of a sudden, though, the brightness will drop precipitously over the next (fourth) month since detonation: it will go back to barely being brighter than Venus by the end of that time. And finally, over the next year or two, it will gradually fade out of existence, with the supernova remnant visible only through telescopes.

So it'll be more like a second moon and may or may not even be visible at night, depending on the time of year.
 
I don't think anyone had asked, but when Betelgeuse eventually goes supernova, will its light only be seen in one hemisphere at a time, or will everyone see it in some capacity at the same time?

Because if it's only witnessed in one hemisphere, then I hope it'll be during winter. I won't complain about the cold again after that.
 
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