Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

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MetokurGroomedMe dijo:
So why don't the asian tankers keep going? The 'president' said they weren't closing the strait to anyone but allies.
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The strait is as likely closed to shipping by insurance companies than Iranian mines. Most insurers have a standard war exclusion in their commercial policies stating that they are not liable to pay if the the loss is the result of an act of war. Insurance companies are absolutely not going to remove this exclusion during war. Shouldering the loss of a destroyed tanker is too much for an individual policy to accommodate and it would take the claimant years arguing in court why that exclusion doesn't apply in this particular case, if it wasn't thrown out in pre-trial.

Asian companies might be looking at things different based on risk profiles and need since they are more dependent on it's use but for Western insurance companies and shippers to shoulder the loss on their own is too much for either to risk so they are all staying put for now and monitoring the situation.
 
CIS White Droid dijo:
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Jokes aside I hope Israel doesn't start targeting Iranian civilians in retribution.
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Unlikely, their whole shtick is that they're trying to help Iranians rise up against the regime. More likely it's going to become an excuse for the US to go full retard, take Kharg and force the strait open like it's goatse.
 
Harambe dijo:
Are you familiar with MAD? It is not what happens when any two nuclear powers are in a conflict that escalates to nuclear use. It’s what happens when two superpowers with thousands of nukes exchange nuclear weapons after exhausting counterforce options and begin the grim work of headless countervalue exchanges from submarine platforms. If the US were to nuke Iran, who is going to press the suicide button on their behalf? There is no country that would guarantee countervalue strikes for Iran. Iran, if nuclear, would have one and only one leg of the triad, just enough to attack once and maybe not even that. North Korea’s security is backstopped by China’s deterrent, and their conventional artillery forces which could level Seoul. Their nukes are supportive of that, not sufficient in and of themselves. Iran has no true strategic partners, that is part of their defense doctrine.
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Fair point. In the case of Iran vs. USA it wouldn't be mutual destruction on the scale of two superpowers duking it out. Still, the risk of catching nuclear counterfire would make an attack on Iran potentially too costly for the US to dare. Which, if not literal mutual destruction, is still the basis of the concept of MAD. The enemy has enough firepower to make victory not worth it.

In reality Irans nukes would be aimed at Israel. Their conventional ballistics forming a second deterrence comparable to NKs artillery. Israel of course does not want a second nuclear power in 'their region', especially not their biggest rival. The US does not want Iran to have nukes because it does not want anybody else to have nukes and a nuclear armed Iran would naturally be able to exert more influence over the ME.

At no point would it make sense for Iran to ever fire nukes at European countries or the continental US. The only possible scenario I can come up with is if the Europeans somehow supply Israel with enough warmaterial to force Iran to use nukes or face certain annihilation. Even then it would be easier to glass Israel instead of Europe.
 
Trump says that Axios/NYT article about him considering ceasefire negotiations is bullshit
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Source | Archive
 
The Great Ducktator dijo:
One explanation I heard was that it was used to have a bargaining chip to exchange for sanction relief. Which did pay off under Obama. To be clear, I don't believe that the Iranians were not going for nuclear weapons. But I also don't believe that they are brainwashed by Islam to such a degree that they would wage nuclear powered Jihad.
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They’d wage every other kind and engaged in nuclear blackmail, why would they be worth considering as sufficiently rational to join the big boy club of nations?
The Great Ducktator dijo:
The Iranians do not seem like irrational actors to me in this conflict.
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Their current strategy is more fundamentally irrational than it is locally irrational. They are not making strange decisions from strange premises. They are making normal decisions from insane premises. They are making outrageous claims like “strategic martyrdom.” Would a person willing to die as a religious example be considered trustworthy with anything? Have the past 5 decades been rational policy? All the oil in the world and their only buyer is a viciously antiMuslim/antiTurkic dictatorship like the PRC? The US buttfucks Iraq for them and they teach the Iraqis to make roadside bombs and organize paramilitaries to hold the state hostage?
The Great Ducktator dijo:
That puts me in the minority in this thread, but their actions in this war, strikes on GCC countries included, make perfect sense from the standpoint of the Iranians.
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The rational choice was to surrender. Capitulation has infinite real advantages compared to the course they’re on now. The course they’re on now is because a bunch of lunatics have guns to the heads of the few sane people left.
The Great Ducktator dijo:
The Iranians know that they can not defeat the US and Israel militarily, so their strategy aims at causing economic and reputational damage instead. They strike the GCC countries to force them to pay a high price for being allies of the US.
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Their strategy’s goal is the real problem. They want to maintain a theocracy structured after a Maoist state with legalized pederasty, cousin marriage, nightmarish oppression of women, and deeply institutionalized corruption. They want a military accountable to no one to enforce whatever the military says the mullahs and therefore god wants and for some reason what they want is to nuke the only developed economy in the region over the plight of people who would kill them at the first chance over doctrinal differences. The Islamic Republic is not rational at a very basic level. The problem goes deeper than “they’re defending themselves from zog” the problem is that they believe in zog, they’re nuttier than groypers and sillier than a normal muzzie. Maybe they built a lot of valid math around a faulty premise. If you decide pi is 3 and e is 2.75, maybe you can build a lot of math and it all checks out until you realize their Euclid was the product of incest and a sick fuck to boot. For lunatics they’re playing poker well but this is about something besides playing cards.
 
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Clyde Cash's Left Teste dijo:
The funniest thing would be if Iran made Robux's their official currency
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Sadly, the Iranians wouldn't be able to buy anything as expensive as 1 Robux. It's too large a denomination. It would only be usable for major real estate transactions.

This made me laugh (despite its potential inaccuracies).
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redbeardeded dijo:
I'm not trying to argue with you (that would be against the forum guidelines) but I have to point out that Iraq and Iran are different countries and confusing them is a sign of low intelligence. Also gambling is jewish and gay, and I wouldn't expect them to pay me even if I was right, so I'm not going to do any Forex Spread Betting (I think is what it's called) but I have to point out that the risk/return ratio would make the Rial a good bet.
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I actually thought you were making a self-aware joke when you said that and was playing along. That's why I gave a LOL. Fucking hell. They're not sending their best and brightest, folks!

You looked at "bet" in a literal use only, not realizing that people with money say that making a speculative investment is a "bet" as well. You would think gambling is "jewish and gay" because you are well below the poverty line. You have no idea what money is beyond paper that means people gotta give you stuff. Log off the white man's internet.
 
Here are some charts of Iranian drone/missile attacks against various Gulf countries.
(source)
(archive)
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Question for those far better versed in desert people politics- Why does Lebanon tolerate Israel bombing them on a whim all the fucking time? Does the country not have a unified government or any kind of military to tell them to fuck off or to retaliate?
 
The Great Ducktator dijo:
In the case of Iran vs. USA it wouldn't be mutual destruction on the scale of two superpowers duking it out. Still, the risk of catching nuclear counterfire would make an attack on Iran potentially too costly for the US to dare.
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What counterfire are you referring to? China, Russia, France, the UK? North Korea? Well maybe the UK but we’d simply turn off their missile launch capabilities beforehand.

Who is sticking their neck out for Iran right now in a much less severe case? I guarantee you no one is helping Iran in a nuclear exchange if they’re not helping in a conventional exchange. There are no wins to helping a retard in game theory, no payouts for backing the loser. If Israel is nuked by Iran the US would probably use strategic weapons against Iran following extraordinary counterforce strikes that make the current campaign seem like Tepid Fury. Why would Russia strike the US when Iran just killed a bunch of Russian Jews, historically the only smart Russians besides the Baltic Germans? Why would China do anything other than sit back after Iran pushed the suicide button? The average Chinese person has contempt for Islam. The Chinese word for family is the character for swine with a little roof over its head. Chinese people think keeping halal is unjustifiable arrogance. They’re oppressing Muslims as we speak. Think they’re dying by the millions for Twelver Shiite authoritarians who don’t speak Mandarin? We’ve got enough more than nukes to counterforce and countervalue Iran and China simultaneously.
 
MetokurGroomedMe dijo:
sir, Brent closed yesterday at 112, after trading at 108. That statement is buttfuck retarded. There has not been a single confirmed strike on a vessel from Iran in at least a week, if not a little more than that. Please, provide the evidence that Oil will be over 180 dollars a barrel at whatever time of your choosing is specified. I'm all ears.
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Oil last month: $65/barrel
Straight of Homos: 20% of the world's oil supply
Retarded faggots who never post hands: OIL TO $50000 A BARREL! PETRODOLLAR IS FINISHED!

SBG dijo:
Well they'll fuck with trade plenty in the strait in the meantime. Lot of people would probably prefer that cleared up and not have the conflict drive oil prices to $180 a barrel.
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Please explain to me why 20% of the world's oil being disrupted would cause a 300% increase in prices.

SBG dijo:
It's probably an exaggeration, but there are people talking about their fears of it.

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Ok. So its an exageration but one you posted seriously.

SBG dijo:
Because I'm not sure I believe they'll really hit $180 a barrel as they fuck with trade?
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Ah, I see. you were only PRETENDING to be retarded.

The Great Ducktator dijo:
I don't believe that at all. The Iranians would know that being the first country to use nukes in a war of aggression would get them shitfucked. Same reason they never initiated an exchange of airstrikes/missiles with Israel. They'd get into deep, deep trouble. Even with nukes, the fact remains that the rest of the world has a lot more firepower than Iran could ever have.
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Iran: Launches missiles and drones into the shopping malls of a neutral country that expressly forbid its territory be used for strikes on Iran and communicated this through official diplomatic channels to Iran.

You: Clearly Iran is a completely rational actor and definitely doesn't just chimp out on any target it can hit, and there is zero reason they couldn't be trusted with nukes.

When you are as retarded as you are, are you aware of it? Do you have the IQ to at least acknowledge the level of utter idiocy dribbling out of you like diarrhea but formed of retarded thoughts? If you weren't indian, you'd be the exact sort of retard Jeet scammers would target. I am surprised there is enough activity in your brain stem to permit you to make posts, and the fact your group home allows you unattended access to the internet makes me concerned for how well it is run.
Yours is the level of retardation that only generations of inbreeding could generate, which I assume is why you carry water for the Islamic regime. I can only assume your parents are as dumb as you, or they hate you and tried to drown you - unsuccessfully, to all our detriment.

The Great Ducktator dijo:
At no point would it make sense for Iran to ever fire nukes at European countries or the continental US. The only possible scenario I can come up with is if the Europeans somehow supply Israel with enough warmaterial to force Iran to use nukes or face certain annihilation. Even then it would be easier to glass Israel instead of Europe.
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Iran: *launches missiles into Azerbaijan and turkey*
You: Obviously those niggers had it coming.

It doesn't make sense for them to spend a large portion of their GDP trying to fund Hezbollah to fuck with Israel, a country that offers no existential threat to their existence.... and yet here we are.
(I mean, other than the general based impulse to kill jews of course)

You watch Iran hitting the gulf countries, including Oman which doesn't have any US bases, and you really think that Iran gives a fuck about its targets. The only reason Iran hasn't tried again on Europe is because they'd rather hit Israel with thier long range weapons. Which means you are cowering behind jews.
 
From the missile hit in Arad, which injured 68 people, 10 seriously (consisting of multiple children according to rescuers) and 13 moderately injured, and the rest lightly. The missile hit a patch of dirt inbetween 3 buildings so even when they do manage to hit the aim is poor. The neighborhood it struck is ultra-orthodox.






 
cwd+ meat dijo:
Question for those far better versed in desert people politics- Why does Lebanon tolerate Israel bombing them on a whim all the fucking time? Does the country not have a unified government or any kind of military to tell them to fuck off or to retaliate?
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The areas Israel attacks are occupied by Hezbollah. For all intents and purposes Southern Lebanon might as well be a separate state, the Beirut government has no authority there.
 
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