A new poll by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida propels Congressman and Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds (R-FL) into a big lead when GOP voters are informed of President Donald Trump's endorsement.
The poll found Rep. Donalds at 47% with President Trump's support, with First Lady Casey in a distant second at 12%. Casey DeSantis has not announced a run for governor.
28% of respondents were undecided.
"When all the candidates are from the same party, voters lose their most important decision-making cue, and endorsements usually fill that vacuum," PORL director and professor of political science Sean Freeder said.
"Given Trump's notoriety and high popularity among Republicans, an endorsement from him is likely to decide the race, especially when Donalds has the campaign funds to heavily advertise this advantage to voters," Freeder added.
Rep. Donalds recently reported $45 million in the bank for his campaign. He also put out a campaign highlighting Trump's endorsement last week.
But there's a major catch if you're a fan of the First Lady.
When voters aren't informed of President Trump's endorsement, Donalds's lead over DeSantis dwindles to just four points (28% to 24%). Businessman James Fishback (4%), Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (3%), and Paul Renner (<1%) are well behind the pack. 36% were still undecided.
DeSantis's percentage doesn't even slip that much when voters are informed she has not expressed her intent to run for governor. With that in mind, Donalds's support rises just three points (31%), while other candidates pick up just one or two points.
64% of would-be DeSantis voters did not know who they would turn to for a vote if the First Lady were out. Undecided also rose from 36% to 51% with this factor.
“Casey DeSantis’s entrance into the race is still possible, though she hasn't been engaged in the fundraising we'd expect from someone interested in running," Freeder said. “Still, given her level of name recognition and the impact that has on voters, she'll remain a factor at least until the June filing deadline."
Oh, and there's one more thing... Gov. Ron DeSantis.
While Gov. Ron DeSantis has not backed a candidate in the GOP field, voters indicated his support would mean more than Trump's by a 10-point margin (42% to 32%). 18% were undecided.
Logically, one would think Gov. DeSantis would back his wife. The possibility of a DeSantis run certainly gets more interesting with all the factors in mind.
“That DeSantis’s endorsement edges out Trump’s in terms of importance may be less about voters’ preference for DeSantis’s opinion and more about their curiosity about it, given Trump’s opinion is already public knowledge," Freeder said. "This would explain Donalds' clean advantage over Casey DeSantis."
The GOP primary is Aug. 18.
With Trump’s endorsement:
Without POTUS endorsement:
