Let's say they do bring down the Iranian government, which I think would be great. This is a serious and not shitposting question: What indications do we have that what comes after wouldn't be horrible? I say that as someone who got really excited for Arab Spring and was appalled at what some call the Arab Winter when Islamists retrenched. I'm asking because amidst all the shitposting I rely on the Farms for some of the best and most informed analyses on current events I see anywhere, and I appreciate it.
@RodgerDodger covers it very well.
Firstly, its almost impossible for the situation to get worse. They are already a fundie-run hellhole. The worst that would happen is even more fundie fundies take over, but that's not a far trip from where they are. But this unlikely as Fundie rule is large part of what they're protesting.
Second, as
@A Cardboard Box points out, unlike post-Shah Iran there is a figure for people to rally and unite around that isn't a Cleric and can agree on things that aren't just "We need to return to 600AD and Muhammed".
There is actual, real reasons to hope this will result in a non-retarded Iran rising from the ashes. But there's also significant possibility it ends up more or less as you describe with just a different group of retarded pedoworshippers in charge.
1. Not too impressed by reports of "the US needs more time." The US has exceptional capabilities. Everything is subject to the President's decision.
On the "the usa needs more time". I think the United States literally needs more time to get the assets in place. It's one thing to bomb a Target that everyone already knows exists. It's another thing when you have to do multiple strikes and civilian infrastructure.
But the overthrow of this regime is the crown Jewel in Trump's plan. You know he will ensure he will not repeat the same "mistakes" Obama and biden did.
This revolution has the US pretty flatfooted and situation is more than a dozen tomahawks or Recon Marine platoon can handle, I don't think anyone saw this blowing up this bad. This means significant resources need to be shifted.
The US is currently distracted in Venezuela and to reallign resources from that effort the protesters/revolutionaries need to demonstrate they worth the support.
Add to this, to recycle a stale joke from the Cold War and GWOT, at this point the US Generals are still tryng to figure out who to bomb.
If the Shah live streamed himself and a battalion of Blackwater and Executive Decisions guys paradropping into Tehran, the US would have bombs impacting before he made it to the ground. It would be very expensive, it would put US forces at risk, but the US could do it, would be able to do it, and would do it because they'd know who they are supporting.
Right now, its a bunch of loosely organized protests. They might, as
@LateNightMuffin speculates, end up coalescing around leaders even more retarded and violent than the current regime. The US just doesn't know who to bomb; even if the US started bombing the regular IA, they need to know what units are loyal to the regime, which ones are sitting on the fence, and which ones have or might turn to the revolution - you don't want to JDAM a general who might be thinking about switching sides.
There is also legality/justification issues. The US and Israel bombed, specifically, sanctioned nuclear sites, IRCG facilities, ballistic missile infrastructure, and air defense sites that might endanger their bombing missions. They didn't just put 2000-lb bombs into the regular army HQ, they didn't Operation Praying Mantis their navy - though they could have.
The reason is its very easy to explain "We blew up the nuke facilities because they weren't allowing inspectors in, we blew up the IRGC because they have been working with our enemies who attacked us, they have been launching missiles on Israel, and we needed to ensure our planes were safe". Going in right now unbidden to just drop bombs and hope the revolution works out is a much harder sell.
Now if this was 4 months ago when the USS HST was in the area already stomping the Houthis, maybe different story.
The US also knows that any stray bomb is going to look bad and deligitimize the protests, or at least pro-western leaders of protester factions.
or:
tl;dr: The US would mobilize faster to defend allies. But the US doesn't know who those allies are how much air support they're going to need. They don't want another Syria where its just trying to fine the Islamists less likely to genocide minorities.
Naturally. It's another attempt at color-revolution.
Every time another Russian ally falls, its always a color revolution for some reason.
Post hands, fren.
"muh colour revolution"
"muh ZOG"
Always pro-Russian Vatnigger posters that never post hands. Its very curious.
3rd worlder brain can not comprehend people fighting for themselves. Every revolution is DA JOOS, every movement for freedom is CIA. Its because they are slaves and would never fight for what they believe, which is funny because they believe nothing except whatever is opposite of israel+west
And only when its yet another Russian ally imploding.
