2025 US and Venezuela Conflict - Operation Just Cause 2: 2 Just 2 Cause

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

Crude production will be down, but oil revenues and business will be up. The US in the only country that can process VZ's oil without cutting it with better oil, and the US is still the worlds #1 refiner. If only drops, oil companies just buy cheaper oil elsewhere and bring it to the refineries.

From a strategic perspective that's honestly the best approach...better to use someone else's oil and keep yours in the ground for when it's really needed.

There are one of two things that will happen with VZ re-entering the market.
Either the international market slackens and in that case US domestic pumping will slow. Oil companies will still continue their explorations and signing contracts, but they will drop domestic pumping to bare minimums. This will have a negliable effect on oil jobs.

Ideally Venezuelan oil production won't increase substantially enough to produce a significant drop in price. Or if it does increase, it's at a cost similar to US domestic production. I don't think we'll see a meaningful increase in production for years if not decades assuming the current situation holds.

Or production does not meet demand in which case nothing changes except the lower end of the market loosens up. This will mean more jobs and possibly new refinery construction.

That would be great if we could build new refineries. Pretty much all capacity expansion has been at existing sites, the last new refinery built with any meaningful bpd capacity was nearly 50 years ago. I would personally love to see new domestic refineries operating, but it's been so difficult to do so for so long I doubt any major with the funds to do so wants to take on such a project.

Same deal with nuclear power, too many people are ignorant and don't know safety, technology and environmental protections in these sectors have advanced massively since the 1970s.

People also forget there is more at play than just price-per-barrel. Not all oil is created equal, and there are additional international fuckfuck games in play. That is, even at $50/barrel due to transit costs and taxes its still cheaper to pump and refine Pennsylvania and Texas crude for domestic use than to use foreign oils, even if it doesn't make sense to put those products on ships for Europe or Asia.

That's the thing, a lot of oil produced isn't the cheap stuff like WTI, it's unconventional oil similar to Venezuela's albeit of somewhat better quality. But like you noted I'd feel a lot more confident about a contract from the US delivering vs. somewhere like Nigeria. I remember the force majeure problems when it comes to Nigerian and Venezuelan crude.

VZ's oil is high-sulfur and absolutely shit-tier. It is mostly used to make diesel for countries with no emissions regulations (i.e. BRICS). What this means is the Brazil now has a source of cheap diesel and the lower-end stuff they were buying is now on the market for 2nd world countries. And the stuff they were buying is now available for overregulated Eurofags.

This is correct IF you have the capacity to refine and export it like US refineries. If we really want to capitalize on this strategically we need to expand domestic refining capacity.

 

[Ghostse]

That's an old number. $60 a barrel was the rough profitability cutoff ten-ish years ago. It's more like $50 - or even $40 with various belt tightening practical and financial tricks - today. And, broadly speaking, that cutoff is for fracking operations, not conventional drilling and extracting

i wasn't going to going into this autism but since someone else brought it up

I have heard $50/barrel at current rates when the full system is considered, that's back-of-the-envelope estimated math. You are 1000% correct there are numerous ways to drop that number, now granted this is a COVID era number someone I trust to know about these numbers said $25/barrel was about the true pain point where very tough decisions would need to be made, but things begin get spicy around $35-40 where expensive wells would start getting shutdown.

even with fracking, extraction isn't really the issue thanks to North Dakota, TRANSPORT is the killer being there's still no full pipeline out there. But they have options about basically running more efficient trains and reworking processing hubs. They don't want to do these things because it fucks with operational flexibility but they can go back to doing them.
there are also several high-premium mineral leases that were signed during bad times, and as things get to $40 there would be renegotation happening on those contracts. Sort of like Ford and UAW, "you either negotiate lower rates with us, or the entity you signed your lease with goes bankrupt and you'll be hunting for a new lease in the worst market possible. Your choice"

Ideally Venezuelan oil production won't increase substantially enough to produce a significant drop in price. Or if it does increase, it's at a cost similar to US domestic production. I don't think we'll see a meaningful increase in production for years if not decades assuming the current situation holds.

It will produce a per-barrel drop because the current price-per-barrel is the market without it. Even just the possiblity of production entering the market will drop PPB.

Petro's government is getting scared.

"After high-level talks with my top generals where they told me 'You must be fucking high you terrorist puta. If they show up to snatch you at 2am my soldiers will be marking the LZ for the delta choppers with flares and unlocking your front door. The only way we will impede a US military operation to black bag you to Gitmo is asking them to please wipe their feet on the mat before entering so the Vice President won't need to have the floors mopped before he can move in.' I have decided that we will cooperate with the United States because Prison Orange is not my color."

>civil unrest, economic collapse, and repression everywhere in venezuela
>merchants profiting off terrible living conditions by buying stolen oil equipment
>they buyers are middle-eastern

I guarantee they're Lebanese. Lebanese merchants have profit as merchants in the worst conditions imaginable, while occasionally acting as smugglers in the process. That ain't mere conjecture, either. Look at Syria where they were smuggling sanctioned goods and petrol. There's also the Central African Republic where Lebanese merchants own supermarkets that have America-tier pricing for imported goods in the poorest (non-Congolese) country on the planet. If you're in a dangerously unstable country, and you see a Lebanese person, odds are they're profiting hardcore and living comfortably while the locals suffer.

Hezbollah was involved with Chavez/Maduro, acting as not just a drug customer but a disavowable go-between for deals involving VZ and Iran. So you are likely correct about it being Lebanese.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

90% of your views are Russian psyops

Have you read literally any of Ghostse's posts?

 

[JCVD_Fan]

>US sends weapons to Ukraine after Russia invades
>MAGAs reaction: Ukraine are nazis, Biden is a warmonger, we don't want WWIII, Russia is a friend, Ukraine is leeching off of us and laundering our money

>US sends weapons to Israel to glass Gaza, bombs Yemen and Iran and invades Venezuela
>MAGAs reaction: God bless the US military, hail the US Empire, Praise God Emperor Trump, fuck all you sandniggers, get fucked peacenik libtards, Murica fuck yeah!

What gives?

 

[Mr. Racewar1488]

"After high-level talks with my top generals where they told me 'You must be fucking high you terrorist puta. If they show up to snatch you at 2am my soldiers will be marking the LZ for the delta choppers with flares and unlocking your front door. The only way we will impede a US military operation to black bag you to Gitmo is asking them to please wipe their feet on the mat before entering so the Vice President won't need to have the floors mopped before he can move in.' I have decided that we will cooperate with the United States because Prison Orange is not my color."

And then Petro does another few lines and challenge's Trump.

 

[StacticShock]

Here's the two courtroom sketches of Maduro and his wife in court this morning:

how sweet, they gave him blue and orage to slightly resemble the colors of the flag of the country he destroyed.

Petro's government is getting scared.

he'll snort some coke to calm down, as usual.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

It will produce a per-barrel drop because the current price-per-barrel is the market without it. Even just the possiblity of production entering the market will drop PPB.

If it buck breaks Russia's budget long-term I'm fine with some short-term disruption in the US oil production sector.

Just don't know if it will or how any of this will play out. It was a tactically brilliant operation but not sure how it will turn out strategically...I am not optimistic.

 

[Nigger Cattle]

It's funny that i was thinking of south american and caribbean countries forming a military alliance in the near future, but then i realized it would be useless because none of them have nukes.
Unfortunately you cannot be a serious country unless you have nukes, Maduro was sanctioned from everything and never spent the money to develop his nuclear program so he got fucked, honestly everything in South America is there for the taking if needed.

 

[Absurdist Laughter]

Venezuelans are not smart, if they were, we would not be in this position to begin with.

Americans are not smart, if they were, we would have stopped the Somali fraud gangs. I hate this line of thinking as it is ignoring the fact that Venezuela has just been relieved of a roiling, glass filled, hurricane that's been eroding what should be a 1st world country by now; just through resources alone. Laughing and pointing at a kennel dog that cowers when someone lifts a hand to pet them, is not exactly the kindest. Lurk more.

 

[draggs]

Muh nuclear proliferashun is boring. Here's what happens since the US finally learned its lesson from Clinton's fecklessness with North Korea

1. Retards say gotta get nukes it's the only thing that will keep the imperialist American pigdogs in their place!
2. Retards try to get nukes in violation of the NPT
3. American government knows more about what they're doing than they do because American and kike glowniggers are fucking everywhere
4. Mr. US Navy and Mr. US Chair Force wreck retard's shit worse than Chantal wrecks plumbing
5. Retards sit there in the ruins of their bravado wondering wtf just happened. If the US didn't decide to snatch them up or blow them to smithereens too

The US is not going to allow anyone new to get nukes. Anyone who tries is going to get horribly sodomized. Especially if they're moon worship niggers, the kikes will join in too directly. In any case their own glowniggers will help American glowniggers. Nuclear proliferashun is not habbening

 

[lurker7274519]

Americans are not smart, if they were, we would have stopped the Somali fraud gangs. I hate this line of thinking as it is ignoring the fact that Venezuela has just been relieved of a roiling, glass filled, hurricane that's been eroding what should be a 1st world country by now; just through resources alone. Laughing and pointing at a kennel dog that cowers when someone lifts a hand to pet them, is not exactly the kindest. Lurk more.

I am a venezuelan nigger. And what I said is a fact.

Nicolás Maduro got to meet some great Americans wearing night-vision goggles three nights ago.

He didn’t know they were coming until three minutes before they arrived.

In fact, his wife said, “I think I hear aircraft outside.” They didn’t know.

The glowies placed mics on his crib lmao.

 

[Mr. Racewar1488]

My source deep in the Trump administration, who may or may not be the real Q, just sent me EXCLUSIVE footage of Maduro's arrest:

 

[Quarterback Rex Grossman]

>US sends weapons to Ukraine after Russia invades
>MAGAs reaction: Ukraine are nazis, Biden is a warmonger, we don't want WWIII, Russia is a friend, Ukraine is leeching off of us and laundering our money

>US sends weapons to Israel to glass Gaza, bombs Yemen and Iran and invades Venezuela
>MAGAs reaction: God bless the US military, hail the US Empire, Praise God Emperor Trump, fuck all you sandniggers, get fucked peacenik libtards, Murica fuck yeah!

What gives?

Ukraine is a globohomo psy-op and I don't give a shit if Muslims get blown up.

Honestly, I'm just tired of pussy old men talking tough and not doing anything. Trump fucked up Fagduro's shit and it makes me laugh.

Here's the two courtroom sketches of Maduro and his wife in court this morning:
Ver archivo adjunto 8379017Ver archivo adjunto 8379018

Why the eff can't these artists draw? The lady looks like she's from a pixar cartoon in the first one.

 

[Absurdist Laughter]

I am a venezuelan nigger. And what I said is a fact.

Nicolás Maduro got to meet some great Americans wearing night-vision goggles three nights ago.

He didn’t know they were coming until three minutes before they arrived.

In fact, his wife said, “I think I hear aircraft outside.” They didn’t know.

A misunderstanding, it seems you meant more Venezuelan as in the Maduro regime and not commenting on the people overall? If that is the case, I misunderstood.

 

[Dude Snakes]

kek this is the calibre of nigger you are dealing with when talking to a MAGAtard,

Cry more faggot.

 

[Ghostse]

It's funny that i was thinking of south american and caribbean countries forming a military alliance in the near future, but then i realized it would be useless because none of them have nukes.
Unfortunately you cannot be a serious country unless you have nukes, Maduro was sanctioned from everything and never spent the money to develop his nuclear program so he got fucked, honestly everything in South America is there for the taking if needed.

You are about 12 steps ahead of reality.

The before nuke or w/e the first thing they'd have to do would to stop hating those other, bad spics/nigger over there. No SA nation trusts the others, and they are right to do so every SA nation would readily sell out every neighbor for a couple pesos.

They can't form a military alliance because if you actually had two nations - and not just socialist elites temporarily in command but the will of the people- form an real, honest, based on mutual trust military alliance, the first thing they would do is attempt to invade whatever nation they hate the most before that nation panics and does the same to them.

AKA why BRICS will never work.

 

[Dude Snakes]

I know you think I'm right, because reading what I write triggers you so much you feel the need to respond even though you never have any counter arguments to what I say, further proving my point.
90% of your views are Russian psyops you eat out of your MAGA trough. You're an absolute void of a person, no dignity and no values. Genuinely one of the most pathetic "people" I know of.

Oh fuck off and kill yourself you communist.

 

[AnOminous]

US taxpayer paying 12 million just to have a pedophile-in-chief shit in it

Nigger, even Snopes says that's bullshit. Try harder.

From a strategic perspective that's honestly the best approach...better to use someone else's oil and keep yours in the ground for when it's really needed.

Also our substantial oil assets are mostly light sweet crude, while Venezuela's is shit-tier extra-heavy sour crude. Best if when the shit hits the fan, we have the best kind in our reserves.

even with fracking, extraction isn't really the issue thanks to North Dakota, TRANSPORT is the killer being there's still no full pipeline out there.

On top of that, the very heavy crude Venezuela has can't even be pipelined without some processing. It's too thick and viscous.

 

[Dude Snakes]

>US sends weapons to Ukraine after Russia invades
>MAGAs reaction: Ukraine are nazis, Biden is a warmonger, we don't want WWIII, Russia is a friend, Ukraine is leeching off of us and laundering our money

>US sends weapons to Israel to glass Gaza, bombs Yemen and Iran and invades Venezuela
>MAGAs reaction: God bless the US military, hail the US Empire, Praise God Emperor Trump, fuck all you sandniggers, get fucked peacenik libtards, Murica fuck yeah!

What gives?

What gives is you are a fucking retard.

 

[lurker7274519]

A reminder to all ziggers, this is what you are fighting for

— War in the People's Heaven: According to information, Diosdado Cabello would be planning a COUP D'ÉTAT against the interim president of the Venezuelan regime, Delcy Rodríguez.

Delcy Rodríguez's approaches are not to the liking of the MANY GENERALS of the Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela

Diosdado, considered Maduro's Right-hand, controls many of the colectivos of Venezuela, the far-left paramilitary groups that operate oftenly independently of the Central Government in Caracas

Could be bullshit, but has a good chance of being true.