2024 Syrian opposition offensives - The first Syrian rebel offensive against Government forces since March 2020

Turkey was trying to get closer with Iran and Russia but with this they essentially threw that out the window. Was it worth it ?
I mean the Turks still haven't told the Russians to fuck off from Syria yet and leaving Russia's embassy intact in Syria. Hell I think since the Ukraine war started Turkey was the only NATO country Putin set foot in for the failed peace agreement with Ukraine.
 
Hamas celebrating the death of Hezbollah by congratulating a "free" Syria is the funniest development. I truly hope Iran recalculates and let these stinky camelfuckers to die on top of their excrements. I fucking hate Palestinian cockroaches, man...
It honestly makes me wonder if Iran will scratch “Freeing Palestine and taking back Jerusalem” off its list. Better for them to consolidate their Shia holdings, the Sunnis will hate them no matter what.

Bad ending: a new terror state is formed with access to Assads old arsenal.
Neutral ending: The country struggles, possibly goes into another civil war to find out who is king sand nigger.
Good ending: the country unifies, puts its sandnigger ways in the past, and tries to be a functional state.
The bad ending is the Syrian state totally dissolving into a mess of terrorist statelets resulting in the Syrian refugees staying forever in Europe and even more on the way; the US and Israel are already busy bombing the Syrian army arsenal into dust so HTS can’t get their hands on them.
 
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Some good, boys will be boys news in all this slop
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Turkey was trying to get closer with Iran and Russia but with this they essentially threw that out the window. Was it worth it ?
Inarguably yes. Turkey's position has never been stronger vis a vis middle eastern countries. They've pretty much rumbled all their strategic enemies in the region, and put great powers like the USA and Russia in a real pickle. The only other major power to extract a major W from this is the Israelis. Now we shall see how Al-Jolani navigates this snake pit. If he starts a full on sperg out with the Jews its over for him because Netenyahu will squash him like a bug without a second thought.

Its going to take alot of self control on his part to ignore the reflexive desire to go down to the border and try to kick the Israelis out of the Lebanon mountains. That is honestly not a fight he can win, and will jeopardize his ability to form a government. Netanyahu also knows this full well, which is why the IDF is sitting on Mount Hermon at the moment.
 
I misread that and thought you said geographical, which is relevant to the subject, so I may aswell answer the question.... Greater Israel.

Syria will cease to even exist as a country if the zionists have their way. Assad's regime has been branded a "rogue" nation and placed on the globalist naughty list for decades, much like Iran and several other countries, and has been subsequently shunned and demonised by most of the (((international community))).
greater israel is a meme and always will be, even the most hardcore religious zionists only want south lebanon/West Bank to match the Biblical united Kingdom of Israel

gotten nuclear weapons.
operation opera ensured that wouldnt happen

Israel got a big enemy off the board
Israeli govt appealed against the US invasion of Iraq and told the US Iran was a much bigger danger than Iraq ever was.
 
Assad's goal was your Good Ending and it got him regime changed by the West so I think you can scratch that one off the list.

This is just insane fanfic from people that think you can change a nation’s path by just selecting a different toggle in a hearts of iron tree.

Real life works way differently and paradox autists can’t grasp the difference between a regime’s stated ideology and how long-running ethnic divisions and interests use ideological dads as a fig leaf.

Yeah, the baathists in Egypt, Syria and Iraq all claimed to be pan-Arab nationalist socialists who wanted to build rational, secular societies. But that wasn’t what they actually were and no amount of elite social engineering could make them that way.

What Syria and Iraq got were kleptocratic feudal hereditary regimes, run by ethnic minorities (Alawites and Sunnis respectively) that ruled over other Muslim sects, Kurds, etc. using fear, mass torture, and mass killings. That’s why Syria is a shithole despite ~75 years of Baathist rule, 55 years of it under Assad or his dad.

That’s also why the 100k strong Syrian army who enjoyed unchallenged Russian air superiority crumbled against 10k irregular HTS fighters - nobody believed in the regime any more or was willing to die for it.

Egypt spent so many years violently repressing the Muslim brotherhood that they grew more and more radical as they were persecuted, guaranteeing any non-Baathist/army alternative would be totalitarian and shitty when they did take power. Similar processes are why ISIS routed the Iraqi army, why there is no moderate Muslim or secular opposition to Assad, and it’s how Turkish secular state sowed the seeds of its destruction by Erdogan.

All of this is an unavoidable consequence of those being postcolonial Frankenstein states - for any of these countries to be stable you need mass population transfers to create a series of coherent contiguous states for Shia, Sunni, the Kurds, and the hodgepodge of Christian and Greek minority groups. The countries that are homogenous have been a more more stable - Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the gulf states all avoided the civil wars wrecking multiethnic Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Libya, etc.
 
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If it was a victory, then it most certainly wasn't a victory for America, it was a victory for Iran mostly.
Massive American loss.
I heard the Iraqi Republican Guard is celebrating their smashing victory over the 3rd Infantry Division to this very day...
Turkey was trying to get closer with Iran and Russia but with this they essentially threw that out the window. Was it worth it ?
Russia and Iran both showed weakness.
Turks are wolves and wolves don't respect weak animals.

Erdogan made his play, and Turkey is one step closer to resembling the level of regional hedgemon the Ottomans once were.
 
600,000 people have died in this war, many millions more were displaced and most of the country has at minimum been damaged or outright lies in ruins (including parts of Damascus itself, some suburbs like Daraya rebelled and were besieged for years) while Assad has evidently done little to no rebuilding even when there was a ceasefire on. Syria is obviously in no condition to fight Israel (or anyone else for that matter) even if Al-Jolani wanted to, and I don't believe he does - at least not right now, possibly not for decades. He's a smarter breed of jihadist than all the other ones he killed or buckbroke on the way to this outcome and it cannot have escaped his notice that Hezbollah jumping in to help Hamas, only to get crushed by Israel, is part of what gave him the opening to go all the way against Assad; no way he would risk his life's work by attacking da Joos and getting Nasrallah'd in turn anytime soon.

Russia, Iran and Hezbollah all helped Assad out with the limited assets they still had to spare on Syria after (respectively) the Ukrainian war and the Axis of Resistance vs. Israel showdown post-October 7 2023. It just wasn't even close to enough.
Do you think that syrians in general / the rebels are sucking up to Israel because they want a close relation with the USA and other Israel loving world powers? Will it being them prosperity? Will they just be used? Are these rebels lying when they say they want peace? I have so many questions
 
Do you think that syrians in general / the rebels are sucking up to Israel because they want a close relation with the USA and other Israel loving world powers? Will it being them prosperity? Will they just be used? Are these rebels lying when they say they want peace? I have so many questions
Syria isn’t a country, it’s a bunch of different groups glued together by the French like Lebanon. They were built this way to make them unstable so the French could play groups off each other. There isn’t one group of rebels with coherent aims, there are a bunch of different rival political and ethnic groups pulling in different directions.

The same is true of the US, Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Russia, all of whom are (or were, for Iran and Russia) backing different factions and simultaneously cooperating and competing with each other in various ways. Like at the same time Syria is happening, both Russia and the US back Israel, Turkey is pro-Hamas and anti-Israel, the US and France work with Turkey against Russia in Ukraine, the US is backing the Kurds in Syria against Turkish-backed factions, France kept Turkey out of the EU, the US is trying to topple Erdogan and restore a secular govt in Turkey, Turkey keeps active trade routes open with Russia despite the war, the US keeps nukes as a deterrence against Russia at Incirlik, Israel and Turkey support Azerbaijan against Armenia who has been weakly supported by Russia, the US and France. Russia trades arms with Iran while at the same time supporting western and Israeli efforts to keep them non-nuclear.

Nobody knows who is going to come out on top or even who their allies will be next week.
 
All of this is an unavoidable consequence of those being postcolonial Frankenstein states - for any of these countries to be stable you need mass population transfers to create a series of coherent contiguous states for Shia, Sunni, the Kurds, and the hodgepodge of Christian and Greek minority groups. The countries that are homogenous have been a more more stable - Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the gulf states all avoided the civil wars wrecking multiethnic Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Libya, etc.
Jordan had a civil war, it was called Black September, when the Palestinians tried to overthrow the king and Syria invaded.

Libya isn't multi-ethnic, it's 90% Maghrebi, and 97% Sunni, the civil war was between secularists and islamists, in the end the secularists took over 70% of the country and like 95% of the oil leaving the Islamists cucked to Tripoli.
 
Its like...Jihadists didn't fundamentally become R/Neoliberals over night because Jolani woke up one morning and learned how important INSTITOOTIONS are.

Incredible gullibility that people thought these savages "reformed".
There's several possibilities for what's going on here. Being a blatant bait and switch, while one of them, I consider to be highly unlikely.

The problem with Western understanding, especially with the public, is the knee jerk reaction to take all Islamic fundamentalists and stuff them in a box labeled "terrorist" and do no further research. Julani's behavior is neither new nor uncharacteristic.

The relevant parts are this: he was in AQ and fought against the US. He spent time in prison and afterwards crossed into Syria and founded Al-Nusra, basically the Syria branch of AQ, which, while still a Sunni terror organization, was focused primarily on fighting Iran and not the United States. Here's where the biggest point of divergence between public understanding and the truth probably is: he never joined ISIS. From 2011 to 2013 he was provided funding and soldiers by Islamic State in Iraq, the precursor to ISIS, but in 2013 ISI turned into ISIS and demanded Al-Nusra bend the knee and merge under them. Julani told them to get fucked which led to conflict between the two groups.

In 2016 he broke with AQ entirely, making Al-Nusra an independent entity. Since then his stated objectives and views have not changed, and his actions reflect that. His opinion is that the United States and Europe primarily do business and are allied with the Sunni world, and entering into conflict with them is counterproductive to the true goal of destroying Iran. While he was effectively the one in charge of Idlib Al-Nusra rooted out and destroyed AQ and ISIS cells that tried to hide there.

Anyway, basically his stance is that war with the West is undesirable and untenable, because it will just cause them to get bombed while taking away from the fight against Iran. To this end he actively wants to appease the West, because that also means foreign investment and assistance with the rebuilding effort.
 
Do you think that syrians in general / the rebels are sucking up to Israel because they want a close relation with the USA and other Israel loving world powers? Will it being them prosperity? Will they just be used? Are these rebels lying when they say they want peace? I have so many questions
I don't think they're sucking up to Israel so much as they are saying they have bigger fish to fry right now than deal with the Jews. The bigger question is how will the Jews react to an Arab country that seems to be placing "Good governance & providing for its people" over "DEATH TO KIKES AT ANY AND ALL COSTS"


Like at the same time Syria is happening, both Russia and the US back Israel, Turkey is pro-Hamas and anti-Israel, the US and France work with Turkey against Russia in Ukraine, the US is backing the Kurds in Syria against Turkish-backed factions, France kept Turkey out of the EU, the US is trying to topple Erdogan and restore a secular govt in Turkey, Turkey keeps active trade routes open with Russia despite the war, the US keeps nukes as a deterrence against Russia at Incirlik, Israel and Turkey support Azerbaijan against Armenia who has been weakly supported by Russia, the US and France. Russia trades arms with Iran while at the same time supporting western and Israeli efforts to keep them non-nuclear.

Nobody knows who is going to come out on top or even who their allies will be next week.
You have some very big misses here.

Turkey is not very Pro-Hamas nor even heavily Anti-Israel. Sort of like Newsom's retarded posturing in California, he is trying to performatively show how arab-friendly he is. Er-dog has accepted if he's going to puff himself up as regional power, and that means at minimum bumping shoulders with Israel.

Russia doesn't back Israel except with lipservice. They are deep in bed with Iran.

Turkey all but demanded the US station its current crop nukes inside its borders as a deterrent against Russia - or more accurately so the Turkish government could strut around about how they have nukes. The nukes in there are all B61 conventional bombs because they were concerned about Ivan getting twitchy about missiles.

The US didn't support Armenia. Armenia's senpais were Russia and Iran, who utterly pussed out and did nothing for them while getting bounded by the AZ forces. Armenia has now left the (fake, gay) CSTO after asking for aid and being told "lol, piss off" by the 2nd strongest military in the world (because of their 3-day invasion of a smaller country) and NOW is looking at what Uncle Sam can do for them.

Russia trades arms with Iran while at the same time supporting western and Israeli efforts to keep them non-nuclear.
AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAH fuck right off that shit. That's a fucking retard take.
 
The nukes in there are all B61 conventional bombs because they were concerned about Ivan getting twitchy about missiles.
The United States had Jupiter MRBMs stationed in Turkey until they were removed in a quid pro quo with the Soviets at the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis in return for the Soviets removing their missiles from Cuba.
 
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