Its doubtful many of the Shia and Alawite administration goes turncoat unless they are doing Taqqiya (lying about their faith, they are allowed to do this) and the Christians have been shedding blood for centuries. It very likely Will be some kind of Emirate similar to Afghanistan by the time the dust settles.
They probably wont end relations with Russia outright though and be in a Position similar to Uzbekistan where they are gaming both sides because without some Aid from Russia they would likely just become a protectorate of Qatar Or Saudi Arabia.
And thats assuming there isnt a Ba’athist leader Or a radical Shia Cleric (funded by Iran) that steps up and fights back. Still too early to call on that.
I would hope a Ba’athist leader takes control but agrees to free and fair Democratic Elections. However I really doubt it. The party doesnt have the Best track Record and frankly its impossible to predict what Will happen because there are even more factions than those I mentioned and often very much at odds.
All I can say is God Bless Syria and Kyrie Eleison.
It is exceedingly unlikely that HTS will maintain anything resembling positive relations with Russia, besides maybe letting them keep that big base at Tartus in exchange for money (notably they've refused to storm the Russian bases so far). Russian bombs were one of the pillars holding Assad's regime up for 13 years (besides Iran & Hezbollah) and they especially detested HTS as terrorists right up until the day of Damascus' fall.
If HTS becomes anyone's protectorate, they will 100% be Turkey's. Saudi Arabia are too far away & didn't invest as much in these guys' success as Sultan Erdogan did.
Also, Ba'athism is 110% deader than the dodo now, everywhere. HTS' final victory heralds the final twilight of that ideology, Syria under Assad was the last Baathist-ruled state on the planet after Saddam went down. As the former internal political pillar of Assad's dictatorship, there is absolutely no way that HTS will allow the Ba'athists to regain any measure of influence in their new regime unless the Ba'athists in question are 1) Sunni and 2) swear to abandon & shit on their former Ba'athism forever.
Former Ba'athist party cadres will frankly be lucky if they're not exterminated in the coming weeks & months, the Islamists are not exactly a forgiving bunch traditionally and while not chimping out & massacring religious minorities just for being 'apostates', 'pagans', etc. is one thing (that's already a big ask and big test of the pragmatism of Al-Jolani/Al-Shar'a), it's a very different thing to ask for mercy toward the people they regard as Syria's (and especially their own) direct oppressors & parasites for the past 60 years. The Ba'athists left in Iraq are never going to be allowed back into power by the Shiite majority, and the same is true re: the Ba'athist remnants in Syria and the Sunni majority there; in both cases, as Ba'athism in both countries were based on a minority demographic (Sunnis for Saddam, Alawites for the Assad clan), they wouldn't be able to win a free & fair democratic election even if one was held anyway.
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Did they find him? Has he fled yet? He's been silent ever since his hit song. How can this be.
Lmao take a look at
his Insta just now, he's already accepted defeat and put the Syrian rebels' flag in his profile picture.
(For anyone wondering, this is Rami Kazour, the guy behind the famous
'God, Syria and Bashar!' song)
