2024 Syrian opposition offensives - The first Syrian rebel offensive against Government forces since March 2020

[SaidNoOneEver]

Good ending: the country unifies, puts its sandnigger ways in the past, and tries to be a functional state.

Assad's goal was your Good Ending and it got him regime changed by the West so I think you can scratch that one off the list.

 

[Fred Herbert]

Israel is also currently destroying all Syrian military hardware by the seems, so the new state will be completely defenceless against enemies external or internal.

 

[WelperHelper99]

Assad's goal was your Good Ending and it got him regime changed by the West so I think you can scratch that one off the list.

Assad lost his right to rule the moment he relied on Russia to maintain his power. Right now the future is uncertain. I don't know what could happen. But Christmas is coming soon. Maybe there just might be a miracle and we get some peace and a semi functional government. Or not lol.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Very bad chance of Good Ending. The leader of the main Rebel Group is ex-Al-Qaeda amd worked with ISIS and is even divisive to other Sunni Muslims.
Bad Ending: I think cooler Heads Will prevail but I have been wrong. Until the Qatari oil money is gone anyway.
Neutral Ending: Bingo.

Basically this, but honestly I think the country is going to be torn apart. Turkey the USA and Israel seem to have zero intentions of giving up the pieces of the country they've sliced off. Its possible what forms in Damascus could become a functioning State, but Syria as it exists on the map is done and dusted.

 

[Ishtar]

I think calling Iraq fine is being a bit too generous, it is a powder keg waiting for any serious flare up between the pro-Iranian militias (the PMFs), the nationalist militias (the Sadr militias, yes, that Sadr from the siege, well his son really, but he follows in his fathers footsteps, the son claims to be "retired" from politics since the latest clashes) and the government forces. They clashed back in 2021-2022 several times, with the focus on Baghdad.

The civil war could reignite given the right spark sure. But the country is, however tenuously at peace now. Even if the state is weak and Shiite militias are basically able to do whatever they want.

 

[Ghostse]

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Bros the new ASMR eye exam youtube channel is gonna be LIT.

Russia was also still bombing away & Hezbollah moving in what troops it still had for some time after Aleppo, only definitively giving up after Hama and during the 'battle' for Homs when the SAA had clearly stopped bothering to fight back almost entirely; they wouldn't have bothered if a deal had been made before Al-Jolani started getting things rolling. Iran had spent $50 billion on propping Assad up and laid down roots across 570 bases & outposts across the country, (Archive) there's no way they would have given up that investment voluntarily. Assad himself had no reason to assume things would collapse this quickly either, he seemed to have all but won the war in 2018-20 and until November 26, it seemed like it was a matter of time that Idlibistan would fall to the SAA; the initial rebel attack was codenamed 'Deterrence of Aggression' and its objective was to push the SAA out of artillery range of Idlib (they had been shelling Al-Jolani's emirate before all this), not take Aleppo much less the whole country (obviously, when Aleppo fell with minimal resistance, Al-Jolani changed his mind and decided to start pushing as far as he could, which turned out to be 'everywhere').

HTS had also been doing a lot of hardwork, Allie Joe turning his guys into a close approximation of a professional force, instilling discipline, and getting supplied by Turkey. But yes, I don't think anyone was ready for just how fast everything was going to collapse.

Russia/Wagner had been moving resources out of Syria and into Ukraine or Africa for years because it looked like the situation was at a stalemate and Russia needed that stuff elsewhere. Iran had just gotten gutted by the Jews, and that went triple for Hezbollah & Hamas. Everything just managed to perfectly align.

It is exceedingly unlikely that HTS will maintain anything resembling positive relations with Russia, besides maybe letting them keep that big base at Tartus in exchange for money (notably they've refused to storm the Russian bases so far). Russian bombs were one of the pillars holding Assad's regime up for 13 years (besides Iran & Hezbollah) and they especially detested HTS as terrorists right up until the day of Damascus' fall.

If HTS becomes anyone's protectorate, they will 100% be Turkey's. Saudi Arabia are too far away & didn't invest as much in these guys' success as Sultan Erdogan did.

HST are Turkey's guys. This is a massive Turkroach win on every level. This is the power play Turkey has been craving for the past 15 years. I cannot overstate how massively YUGE this is for the Eturknal Roach.

He has Russia Groveling for the safety of its soldiers military hardware, solid leverage on the US with the fate of the SDF Kurds, Turkey just publicly humiliated Iran, Outplayed the Saudis, and EVERYONE in the middleeast saw. He gets to send all his Syrian refugees back while the Turkish colony of Germany can only seethe; everyone in the EU is going to back Turkey's plays for the region to return stability and MAYBE get to send some of their rapefugees back.
And this is on top of Turkey helping Azerbaijan reverse the humiliating loss of sovereignty against Armenia a few years ago. The only way this could go better for them is if they somehow managed to give Israel a solid sack-tap - enough to let people see, not enough to arise the Semite Ire. If Er-Dog was Mayan he'd be heading to the temple to be ritualistically sacrificed because this is peak right here.

It is very unlikely Russia gets to keep their naval base. Money is nice but Russia was bombing civilian hospitals until days before the final capituation, and their airpower is largely held up (cope or not) as why they couldn't defeat Al-Assad back in 2011. There is only slightly better odds the Taliban request the US reopen Bagram than Russia keeps Tartus.

Not really. Iraq is unironically doing more or less fine. Their GDP per capita is one of the highest in the region.
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The Kurdish part to the north has been completely fine and vastly improved on every level; ISIS tried to step and got BTFO. They finally have what they wanted: the other sand niggers leaving them more or less alone.
The southern oil districts are also doing better than they were, definitley at any point since Iran/Iraq kicked off.
The middle part of the country is still pretty well fucked though.

It appears to me that HTS is genuinely attempting to play ball with the US and Gulf States. I don't know if this line will hold, but at least right now, in this moment, it appears that their objective is to build a big tent moderate base of support. I am genuinely praying that this line holds.Ver archivo adjunto 6734387

I dunno, it all sounds great until that last part. Why punish people for doing a public good?

I am a total fucking retard dyslexic and meant to say they worked with hezbollah to spring the trap on rebels. Genuine apologies, I had just woken up when I wrote that post.

Its hard to fault you for getting one group of armed and violent sand niggers confused with another.

The Assad administration suffered from lack of training and sanctions after some years of multiple trained Soldiers dying off and when Russia and Iran couldnt pony up funds Or weapons and became preoccupied with their own problems things started to collapse. This isnt all that different from South Viet Nam. They actually started off in a decent Position but because of Internal factors it rapidly collapsed. The Ngo family being corrupt and the military losing competence really didnt Help.

Sort of a similar parallel not to mention Uncle Ho was a uniting figure for the North regardless of Political Allegiance whereas the Ngo were just seen as divisive (strictly favoring Catholics in an area that was mostly Buddhist and Cao Dai) just as How Assad mostly favored Alawites in a largely Sunni Country.

Assad suffered from A) his force was Arabs and genetically depositioned to be garbage at war and B) the usual dictator fear of his army being too competent and thus a threat.

The IDF has been wiping out Syrian airfields the past two days (the entire Mig-29 fleet was destroyed), and Russian Telegram channels (Fighterbomber) are begging them to stop since there are still Russian soldiers there who were abandoned by their commanders. I'm sorry, zigger oomfies...
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Russian soldiers abandoned by the Russian military? That can't be. We've been assured by the finest zigger minds that this is all planned a 58D Chess move by Putin & Er-Dog to provide Russian victory in Ukraine; not that he as the leader of the world's 2nd strongest army needs the turkroaches to help him win against a nation 1/5th the size of Russia, but as a good will gesture to entire the Turkroaches to join the Multipolar BRICS world.

 

[NvII iS 8ulLt f0R 88C]

this is the good ending, prove me wrong

 

[Nigger Cobson]

Iraq is a dysfunctional Iranian client state(with a U.S. military presence that will probably never go away), but it’s more or less intact. “Democracy” however corrupt and sectarian exists, and life goes on a generation after the Iraq war. I’d say the Iraq war was…a success? At least insofar as the country didn’t completely disintegrate.

If that lasts indefinitely, or more war flares up is impossible to say. But Iraq is fine, more or less nowadays. The Kurds are autonomous and isis if it exists it all, is tiny bands of die hards in the desert that consider a victory being killing one border policeman.

If it was a victory, then it most certainly wasn't a victory for America, it was a victory for Iran mostly.

 

[Shovelbird]

this is the good ending, prove me wrong
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As long as I get a better life, fuck the rest of the world. Turks have been the tax and soldier resource of middle east for so long. We've been Europe's Mexico, migrant prison and roach motel. I want my cheap workers, cheap laborers and my privileges, humanity be damned!

 

[Ishtar]

Well and Israel. Saddam’s Iraq however broken and sanctioned was a state that could in theory have been a serious challenge to Israel if it had modernized, or gotten nuclear weapons.

Now it’s basically an Iranian pseudo province, an extremely weak state with at least three or four power blocs-civil war could restart quite easily.

Israel got a big enemy off the board, Iran got its fingers up Baghdad’s ass, and the Iraqi kurds have a good thing going on. Mostly free but without the headache of statehood.

Honestly, it’s the same here. Turkey will benefit a lot, but Israel has really won. Syria and Iraq were both Arab nationalist/pan Arabist vanguards back in the 20th century. Now they are shattered wastelands with central governments made of tissue paper that could re collapse at any time.

It remains to be seen if any other countries will fall. But basically every Arab state that not’s a monarchy now is a shattered husk.

 

[Ghostse]

Israel is also currently destroying all Syrian military hardware by the seems, so the new state will be completely defenceless against enemies external or internal.

They are destroying jets and ballistic missiles, something a non-expansionist, non-genocidal state will have no need of. They didn't need any of that stuff to topple Al-Assad.
Besides, who needs that shit when you have Turkey?

this is the good ending, prove me wrong
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From the River to the Sea, the Eturkal Roach will skitter free.

 

[Shovelbird]

Iraq war made MIC rich and Iran smug, it's the neocon's ultimate treason against the world.

If it was a victory, then it most certainly wasn't a victory for America, it was a victory for Iran mostly.

 

[verissimus]

I guess this is the happy ending for Assad? I low-key want to see Ruskie boomer patients taking photos with him in his clinic with corny captions like “he Bashar’d my glaucoma so and I am no longer A-sad.”

I doubt it. Some zealot will likely want to take a shot at him.

 

[Shovelbird]

The Turkroach rises

*earrape İstiklal Marşı*

 

[Fruttasecca]

this is the good ending, prove me wrong
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ew, you got a serious cockroach infestation there

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

Israel is also currently destroying all Syrian military hardware by the seems, so the new state will be completely defenceless against enemies external or internal.

The US is hurriedly blowing that shit up too. Think about that for a minute. That means they kinew where all of this stuff was to the minute under Assad but it's this new "moderate" government they just installed who would be too dangerous if allowed to get them.

Evil Dictator Assad's evil murderous regime: safe to have military weapons
Moderate Totally Not Al-Queada Terrorists Anymore You Guys New Government: bomb that hardware from orbit, NOW

 

[Shovelbird]

ew, you got a serious cockroach infestation there
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Say that to my face fucker not online and see what happens

 

[Fruttasecca]

Say that to my face fucker not online and see what happens

Einmal ohne scharf bitte

 

[Eggward biscuitbottom]

I will miss Assad this means i wont get another banger like Allah,Syria,Bashar.

 

[Shovelbird]

Einmal ohne scharf bitte

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