2024 Syrian opposition offensives - The first Syrian rebel offensive against Government forces since March 2020

I get you, but I disagree on the by choice part.

I think part of it is the current regime wanting to play geopolitics and be a team player to the west, but also because they actually have no choice in the matter if they don't want to collapse.
The current Egyptian regime is pretty much kept afloat with massive amounts of loans and attempts at investments(not just western ones, BRICS aside China and Russia are big players with stuff like Agriculture megaprojects in the desert and EV factories from the former and the nuclear power plant that I doubt will ever come to fruition from the latter) and as such I doubt said loaners would ever tolerate any fuckery, with the added bonus of them not wanting to add Egypt's ridiculously overpopulated numbers to the migrant waves.
Plus I doubt the regime itself wants to make any plays considering... y'know.
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IT WENT UP ANOTHER 0.5 POUNDS TODAY FUCKING HELL
Egypt also gets a lot of money from Saudi Arabia and the gulf states, who are in fairly good terms with Israel. Harboring potential palestinian terrorists would be a diplomatic disaster
 
Iraq is a dysfunctional Iranian client state(with a U.S. military presence that will probably never go away), but it’s more or less intact. “Democracy” however corrupt and sectarian exists, and life goes on a generation after the Iraq war. I’d say the Iraq war was…a success? At least insofar as the country didn’t completely disintegrate.

If that lasts indefinitely, or more war flares up is impossible to say. But Iraq is fine, more or less nowadays. The Kurds are autonomous and isis if it exists it all, is tiny bands of die hards in the desert that consider a victory being killing one border policeman.
I think calling Iraq fine is being a bit too generous, it is a powder keg waiting for any serious flare up between the pro-Iranian militias (the PMFs), the nationalist militias (the Sadr militias, yes, that Sadr from the siege, well his son really, but he follows in his fathers footsteps, the son claims to be "retired" from politics since the latest clashes) and the government forces. They clashed back in 2021-2022 several times, with the focus on Baghdad.
 
It appears, at least right now, they REALLY want to be un designated as a terror organization. Even the Taliban didn't try this hard.
Hmmm, in that case you know who needs a job? If they really want to show the West they're ready to join a modern Europe...

images.jpg
 
Egypt also gets a lot of money from Saudi Arabia and the gulf states, who are in fairly good terms with Israel. Harboring potential palestinian terrorists would be a diplomatic disaster
Harboring any terrorists would be a disaster, period. I'm not saying Sisi or Egyptians are saints, but the Sinai terroristcon lasted like 7 years and those fuckers killed indiscriminately. Mosques, Churches, explosions in the street, going after tourists and families going on religious trips, that one russian airliner, each of them at least 200 casualities and in one way or another Palestinian terror groups were involved, either smuggling or having weapons smuggled in.
 
A terror organisation that does not engage in terrorism, denounces terrorism, and kills terrorists. Maybeprobably even in cooperation with the US government.

That old Assad game of calling everyone terrorists is being played right now by Russians, Iranian and their social media influencers, that's why it keeps getting spammed here in this thread.
Half of this subforum consumes absolutely nothing unless it was authored by Assad's allies.

Some context, so you know what angle all these posts and screencaps and videos are coming from.
A terror organization does peaceful things if they don't want US cruise missiles hitting their newly acquired territory. Right now it is advantageous not to be dickheads and antagonistic. Until they actually enact meaningful change, they should be assumed hostile.
Hmmm, in that case you know who needs a job? If they really want to show the West they're ready to join a modern Europe...

That is HARAM
 
Took these guys two (2) days to start executing religious minorities on the streets


aqexecution.mp4
Executed for being "Nusayri pigs"
The fact it's just two middle age men and they're Alawites there's a good chance these were former government officials that fucked with people.

I expect to see this same reaction from Canadians and Euros if the second American civil war happens and people post videos of glowies and feds being executed in the street like this

It's like this famous shot.
Saigon_Execution_(cropped).jpg
Poor tire salesman executed in the street by South Vietnam police

Reality, he was a captain in the Viet Cong who was part of a cell that just murdered an entire family of a military officer.

The only survior of the murders is went on to become the highest ranking Vietnamese-American in the US Military retiring with the rank of rear admiral.
 
It is incredible how some uneducated, unemployed, unshaved goatfuckers took over a country vs. official army.
Bit more complicated than that however I Will concede you have a point.

The Army was made up of uneducated, unemployed and unshaved goatfuckers too.
See above.

The thing about the Rebels is they have international Training and guys coming in from other regions. Some with great military Experience. Not to mention the UAE, Qatar, Saudi, and US funding and weapons. Remember the Viet Cong were basically illiterate Rice Farmers. Still knew their terrain but had rebel Japanese Soldiers, French Officers (that were Married to Viets), and Soviet advisors. General Giap was also a genius tactician. The North Viets beat the South Viets mostly because the South was demoralized and attrition against the American forces.

The Assad administration suffered from lack of training and sanctions after some years of multiple trained Soldiers dying off and when Russia and Iran couldnt pony up funds Or weapons and became preoccupied with their own problems things started to collapse. This isnt all that different from South Viet Nam. They actually started off in a decent Position but because of Internal factors it rapidly collapsed. The Ngo family being corrupt and the military losing competence really didnt Help.

Sort of a similar parallel not to mention Uncle Ho was a uniting figure for the North regardless of Political Allegiance whereas the Ngo were just seen as divisive (strictly favoring Catholics in an area that was mostly Buddhist and Cao Dai) just as How Assad mostly favored Alawites in a largely Sunni Country.
 
Yes but that doesn't change the fact that our 'coalition of the willing' killed far more Iraqis than Saddam ever dreamed of and left it a dysfunctional failed state.
The US killed about 100,000 Iraqis from 2003-present

Iraqis and other Arabs and jihadis killed about 300,000 more Iraqis themselves. They don't get to escape responsibility. No one made them chimp out on each other. They did it themselves

Saddam killed well more than a million Iraqis

Go on, sperg about muh sanctions killed a half million, or a million, or a million and a half, or two million Iraqis from 1991-2003. Most of them children! Guess where sanctions didn't kill people in Iraq? "Iraqi Kurdistan." The part of the country Saddam didn't control. Their death rates didn't go up. Because they immediately agreed to the aid programs. They took the aid money, distributed it properly, and had a death rate during the sanctions regime comparable to southern European countries like Greece. Saddam refused to go along with those programs for 5 years after 1991. Then when he did agree, he stole the money and kept crying that muh Iraqi children were starving and dying from lack of medicine. It's weird how muh Iraqi children stopped dying from starvation and lack of medicine pretty much as soon as the Saddam government was taken out. Plus Saddam doctored the figures Iraq provided to the UN on mortality, particularly child mortality, during the sanctions regime. It wasn't two million, or one million, or even a half million that died. The mortality rate in Iraq in the 90s was 1/2 to 3/4 lower in reality, depending on which study you look at, than was reported. The mortality rate increased in 1991, then had fallen back to approximately the 1990 rate by 1994. And btw, that real rate was very similar to the mortality rate in the mid-1980s

Iraq isn't a dysfunctional failed state. The government has effective control over its territory and has for years, there isn't open warlordism and dozens or hundreds of people dying every day from terrorist or civil warfare and there hasn't been for years. Since ~2008 Iraq has been a shitty but functional state without widespread violence except for the ISIS outburst. Once ISIS got the shit kicked out of it, widespread violence went away again and hasn't come back
 
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The fact it's just two middle age men and they're Alawites there's a good chance these were former government officials that fucked with people.

I expect to see this same reaction from Canadians and Euros if the second American civil war happens and people post videos of glowies and feds being executed in the street like this

It's like this famous shot.
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Poor tire salesman executed in the street by South Vietnam police

Reality, he was a captain in the Viet Cong who was part of a cell that just murdered an entire family of a military officer.

The only survior of the murders is went on to become the highest ranking Vietnamese-American in the US Military retiring with the rank of rear admiral.
So they're the good guys being killed by bad guys (sunni terrorists).

Don't see how that makes it any better.
 
as did General Botox (pederast) and the rest of the Tiger Forces and Republican Guard.
Do we have any news on this guy after the totally real and legit paratrooper encirclement of Hama?
I know he got wounded but is he out of the country? MIA? On the run?

What about his twink harem? Will Putin let him bring his alawite bottom boys? Will HTS seek to execute them?
 
The Turkroach rises

Putin has lost a very important strategic ally, so has Iran and the Palestinians. The equilibrium of forces has been shattered.

I'm not seeing pride parades in Damascus anytime soon (Though it would be fucking funny), but this whole situation will send waves through the muslim world once again.
 
I was a teenager when this shit started lol

What are the potential geopolitical consequences of all this?
Bad ending: a new terror state is formed with access to Assads old arsenal.
Neutral ending: The country struggles, possibly goes into another civil war to find out who is king sand nigger.
Good ending: the country unifies, puts its sandnigger ways in the past, and tries to be a functional state.
 
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