The emails that reveal Giesecke's influence over the corona plan (part 1)
"I think the virus will sweep like a storm over Sweden and infect basically everyone in one or two months /.../ I think there are already thousands of infected in Sweden./.../ It all ends when so many become infected and then immune so that the virus has nowhere to go (called 'herd immunity' ”)
It is Friday 13 March and Johan Giesecke has just sent a first analysis to the Third AP Fund. A global pandemic has just gained a foothold in the world and the AP Fund needs to understand in detail how it can affect their investments.
Johan Giesecke has been hired. He has been retired for some time from his job as head of research at the European Agency for Communicable Disease Control and was a state epidemiologist in Sweden between 1995-2005. He accepts the assignment. He is fast, quick in thought, sometimes a little drastic in his analysis.
Among epidemiologists, Johan Giesecke is a household name. His network of contacts is large and his status at the Swedish Public Health Agency is high, despite the fact that it was many years since he was employed there. It was Johan Giesecke who once recruited the current director general Johan Carlson as well as state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. In interviews, Giesecke has repeatedly called them "his boys". The authority therefore listens when Giesecke speaks.
Or rather: The top tier of the authority listens.
On Saturday evening, March 14, Johan Giesecke gets an idea. Sweden has just had its first death and the Swedish Public Health Agency has just changed its strategy from stopping the virus, to now reducing its effects. Giesecke emails assistant state epidemiologist Anders Wallensten and head of analysis Lisa Brouwers. Could they set aside some time to visualize his idea? Anders Wallensten answers in the affirmative already on Sunday evening.
Responds too late
But Anders Wallensten's positive answer is too late. Giesecke has already got hold of both the head of analysis Brouwers and got the authority to allocate resources to his project. Which is not a problem at all for Anders Wallensten. Despite the fact that Giesecke at this time is neither contracted nor has any other formal position with the Public Health Agency.
The officials at the Swedish Public Health Agency, on the other hand, are not impressed. In cautious emails, epidemiologist Annasara Carnahan first writes that the curve will be misleading: "Either it fuels fear or it reduces mortality in covid-19". Another of the authority's officials writes: [Regarding mortality, a lot to think about before making such a comparison]
Head of Analysis Lisa Brouwers immediately forwards the comments to Johan Giesecke, who answers the same evening: [Why do investigators / statisticians with you have so many views on how data should be used?]
Why does Johan Giesecke, who has no formal role in the authority, get access to the authority's internal resources and results? Why is internal communication sent to an outsider? Lisa Brouwers says today that she did not start any project, nor does she think she gave Giesecke access.
In an email, she writes: "Johan G has not been given access to either employees or their internal answers to me - I chose to forward answers from employees to him to point out some problems you could see with the analysis proposal".
The graph is never published. But this is only the beginning of Giesecke's journey at the Public Health Agency during the corona pandemic.
"Do you want to work here?"
On March 17, the day after the question about the graph, Johan Giesecke receives an email from Anders Tegnell. It is concise, as it almost always is when Tegnell emails. A few words, often without punctuation or commas. This time, the message is only in the subject line. [Do you want to work here?]
Johan Giesecke answers within half an hour.
[Why not?]
Worked for the Third AP Fund and FHM - at the same time
A contract begins to be drawn up and Giesecke announces that he can formally start work the following Monday. Meanwhile, Giesecke continues other assignments. The very next day, he writes a knowledge base for the Third AP Fund's CEO Kerstin Hessius and on Sunday he even participates in a debate in SVT's Agenda - with Hessius. A debate where Giesecke is orally contracted by both the Third AP Fund - and the Public Health Agency, something that DN has previously told.
The contract with the Third AP Fund will not end until Monday morning, five minutes to nine. Then Giesecke writes an email to the AP Fund and wants to end his contract.
The dismissal does not fall into place and the AP Fund points out that "oral agreements also apply" and that "It would have been nice to have a line that it is a pity that it is like this". This will not be the last time Giesecke steps on anyone's toes.
"Something patriotic"
When Giesecke now begins his work at the Public Health Agency, he is in his natural habitat. He is frequently hired by all of Sweden's media, SVT Aktuellt sends booking requests for several days and weeks in a row. Giesecke stands up for almost everything and has a huge impact both nationally and internationally. He's becoming a celebrity.
Receives offers for book contracts (says no) and an invitation to become a national day speaker in Södertälje (says yes). The latter he passes on to Anders Tegnell.
[What will you say?] [Something patriotic]
It's a good atmosphere. As it can be between colleagues who are welded together during major crises. These are the most important projects of their careers and the eyes of the world are on them.
The first week on the job, Giesecke invoices 50 hours in eight working days. The crisis is not taking a break. On a Friday night after dinner and a glass of wine, Giesecke gets a whim about school closures. It is sent directly to Tegnell and CEO Johan Carlson.
An hour later that evening, Giesecke sends a message to Preben Aavitsland, at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health regarding an article in Dagbladet. Norway is doing wrong, says Giesecke.
The mood is like that. Johan Giesecke is sure that he is right, others are wrong. He enjoys the attention. Sends the music video that Dr Alban made to Anders Tegnell, asks "have you seen?".
Johan Giesecke's consulting contract will finally be signed on 12 April. That gives him SEK 1,250 an hour and a maximum of 800 hours. A moderate compensation for a senior consultant, according to industry experts. Giesecke's mission is to "support the unit for analysis", where Lisa Brouwers is unit manager. Furthermore, it states that Giesecke will support the unit "in their work with modeling and analysis of covid-19". But Giesecke emails most with Anders Tegnell. The one Tegnell gets the most emails from during the first months of the pandemic is Johan Giesecke, only beaten by Jan Albert. And the one Tegnell emails most often is Johan Giesecke.
Spells wrong on the declaration of non-compliance
For April, Giesecke invoices 157 hours. In the duty report, he writes that the evenings have been spent participating in SVT Aktuellt and TV4. Anders Tegnell sees and confirms the invoice, according to Giesecke. It will later be revealed that Giesecke cannot invoice the Public Health Agency for participation in the media. It will also be revealed that several newsrooms do not even know that Giesecke has a contract with the authority during his appearances. The news will have a big impact. But that's it. Now is now, and the contract is signed.
No declaration of non-compliance has been made. Such an application must be submitted in order for the authority to be able to determine which possible non-conflicting partners have that may complicate the work. It is not forbidden to have a dispute, but it is important for the authority to know in order to avoid being suspected of conflict situations. Giesecke will not submit one until May. He fills it in carelessly. Even spells his name incorrectly.
In the declaration, previous assignments must be stated. Giesecke does not state the contract with the Third AP Fund. The declaration must also state assignments that a relative or someone in a close relationship has had. Giesecke states no one.
Does not mention the wife
But Johan Giesecke's wife is called Kajsa Giesecke. She is an anesthesiologist and has founded the respiratory hospital Remeo. She no longer owns it, but is still an active board member. Her company was involved in building the field hospital in Älvsjö and when it was never used, she went out on SVT with harsh criticism of the decision.
Johan Giesecke does not mention any of this. But he is generous in helping Kajsa with contacts. One week into his new assignment with the authority, he puts his wife Kajsa together with the right people at Karolinska Institutet, since his wife has contact with financiers with "seriously big money".
According to antitrust expert Folke Johansson, it is not automatically problematic to miss or not state one's antitrust. A consultant may do what the consultant wants and a poorly filled out declaration of non-compliance means the poorest basis for the authority to assess what tasks and meetings a consultant can attend. He is supported by the Public Health Agency's General Counsel Bitte Bråstad.
In June, she asked Giesecke to submit additions. Giesecke has not done that. "I have nothing to add", he commented on the matter in an email in June and developed it later on Di TV.
Today, Giesecke only refers to the General Counsel Bitte Bråstad, who now believes that they have made the assessment that there is no conflict of interest situation. Via the press service, the Swedish Public Health Agency announces that Giesecke is not "involved in any decisions at the agency and is only advisory".
Popular and compared to GW
But all that is only discovered after Giesecke toured the world's fliers. Although Giesecke never made any secret of his contract with the Public Health Agency, most of the media did not know about it. In the Spanish media, his statements receive hundreds of thousands of shares on Facebook. His interview with Lockdown TV gets over 1.3 million views and in India he becomes a recurring topic of conversation. In Sweden he is starting to fall in love with people and is compared to Leif GW. At the same time, he receives criticism, which also reaches Anders Tegnell.
Several react to the fact that Giesecke is over 70 years old, but still bounces around among Sweden's TV studios. His age means that he belongs to the risk group Sweden's strategy wants to protect, even isolate. "I usually say I'm 69 and a half," the 70-and-a-half-year-old Giesecke replies to Dagens industri. But when Tegnell forwards a citizen's worried email about the same thing, Giesecke seeks support in how and if he should respond.
In short, Giesecke evokes emotions. At Tegnell, they are hot, but in neighboring countries, for example, they are annoyed. Frode Forland, Norway's equivalent of Anders Tegnell, has openly shown his irritation that Giesecke's quote that Sweden is doing the right thing, "all other countries are doing the wrong thing". Frode Forland's public comment has been that Giesecke "should be more humble".
A special situation arises when Svenska Dagbladet seeks Tegnell for a comment on precisely this and sends the then as yet unpublished reply to Tegnell. Instead of answering the reporter, Tegnell forwards the quotes to Frode Forland and asks "How do you think about below".
The relationship between Norway and Sweden has long been good and the contact frequent. That is why Forland's comment stands out. Frode Forland emails an answer and copies in Johan Giesecke.
The next day, Johan Giesecke responds with an apology to Forland and Norway.
Forland thanks, and Anders Tegnell follows up. Explains how employed The Public Health Agency feels about the media.
Tegnell's sense of betrayal lingers. One week later, another quote request comes to Tegnell. Frode Forland has once again made a proposal about the Swedish strategy. Tegnell answers laconic that he is still disappointed with Frode because of the criticism of Giesecke.
Tegnell sends a copy of his answer to Johan Giesecke, who immediately answers and thanks.
The same hour, the same day, comes the revelation of Giesecke's contract with the Public Health Agency. The next day it is revealed that he, illegally, invoiced the Public Health Agency for television appearances.
Giesecke disappears from the media spotlight. But not from Tegnell's circle of trust - or email basket. In addition to his wife, Giesecke continues to be the one Tegnell usually sends emails to, even during the summer.
Anders Tegnell has had access to the information in this article before publication.
How would you describe Giesecke's status at the Swedish Public Health Agency and your relationship with him?
- No comment, but in general, of course, personal relationships do not affect our assessments of an authority, but they are based on evidence and experience and the authority's overall assessment.
Was it appropriate for Johan Giesecke to have access to the authority's internal resources and communication?
- Yes, consultation with external experts is ongoing all the time but never has more impact than their relevance. It is always the authority's overall assessment that applies.
Expressen has contacted Johan Giesecke and asked questions about his role and influence on the Public Health Agency's choice of corona strategy and about his and his wife's different commitments, but he has not returned.