Would Germany have won WW2 if they had dragons?

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The answer would depend on a couple key variables. What is the size and strength of the new dragon force? Because you did not specify the details of these two I will make some assumptions. First, Germany is the only nation with Dragons (mythologically speaking this seems kinda unfair to Britain but we’ll roll with it). Second we will figure that the new dragon force is about the size of the prewar panzer force (~2000 dragons and their attached support units). Third we will consider two possible victory conditions: the smaller and the larger. The smaller is to take Western Europe and defeat the British. The larger to take western Europe and the USSR. I am leaving out the US because I am assuming dragons do not possess the range to fly across the Atlantic by themselves and the Kriegsmarine was woefully underequipped to provide support for an amphibious invasion of the mainland United States. Germany can “Defeat” the US by beating the other powers badly enough that it would not be politically advantageous to join the Allies. Now let's examine the capabilities of this hypothetical dragon force.

These dragons will be fairly basic fantasy dragons, similar in size to the ones from Skyrim (about the size of a small to medium sized plane) with an incendiary or explosive breath. They can fly fast but not as fast as even WWII era fighter aircraft. They would be durable enough to take small arms fire and light flak but would be vulnerable to larger dedicated AA weapons. I think their closest IRL counterpart would be a cold war era attack helicopter. Given that dragons are reptilian I would say they have the ability to see at night. Most dragons in fiction are sentient and would be capable of taking orders themselves but I still think it would be necessary for them to be paired with a couple of human riders. At bear minimum you would need a radio operator to coordinate attacks and preferably a top machine gunner to help against enemy air attacks. This would be the basic configuration with more specialized variants as follows. Pure attack with a ball turret cannon or bombs underneath, a troop transport and logistics carrier, and a naval variant capable of dropping torpedoes and sea mines. Now with a basic understanding of the dragon force’s capabilities we can give thought to how this unit might affect the outcome of the war.

I think the Germans, more than any other nation, would be best suited to take advantage of the unique capabilities dragons provide. Dragons are a great pairing to Germany’s aggressive fast high risk style of warfare and with how well they were able to use tanks in the early war period the dragons should be equally as effective. Prior to the invasion of Norway everything would pretty much be the same except the Poles would lose even harder. I am unsure how the cold weather would affect dragons but given they are often depicted flying around snowy mountain tops I don’t think this would be an issue in Norway. Importantly, the airborne invasion of Norway would have had more support taking pressure off of the Luftwaffe preserving aircraft to be used later. Again the invasion of France would go on like it did originally as the dragons would only add to the chaos that crippled the early Allied response. Importantly, I think the addition of dragons would provide enough extra support that the Germans would be able to surround the northern forces fast enough to prevent extraction at Dunkirk. The loss of men and material here would be important as after this point comes the difficult part. England will be tough; the RAF and Royal Navy are formidable but some of the dragon’s unique characteristics prove useful here. Dragons being able to conduct accurate night raids would be devastating as they can fly low out of radar detection silently while the enemy would lack the ability to intercept with fighters at night effectively. Another important consideration is that dragons are capable of taking off and landing extremely quickly. Some posters have talked about AA guns but if the dragons are over land they would be able to land quickly to take cover. This also makes them useful as hybrid ground support. Dragons would be able to mine and use torpedoes to try and keep the British home fleet at bay for an invasion force to take hold. If the Luftwaffe was able to gain air superiority over Britain an invasion would be possible. Another important note is that logistically dragons are excellent for Germany as they do not use resources the rest of the forces need (they eat Poles instead of oil). Provided they were able to take Britain the Soviet Union would probably not be in any hurry to fight, gaining Germany time to rearm that they didn’t have before. Also without strategic bombing hitting the homefront more logistics vehicles could be made to help with Barbarossa. Ultimately victory here would be determined if the Red Army collapses after Moscow is captured. I think the hardest part would be taking Britain but with how well the dragons make up for Germany’s historical shortcomings I give them the edge. I would probably say victory over western Europe is possible with total victory in the west and east slightly less so.

So yes
 
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If anything, I think it would be a good culture fit.

"I'm Alduin's top dragon, what am I gonna do? Alduin chose me to lead the revolution..."
"Alduin The Worldeater needs me? Ok, I'll do it..."
"I'm going to fly for you, Alduin; I got your tail, Alduin."
 
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