- Registrado
- 19 de Feb, 2017
I think World War III will happen in our lifetimes, but I doubt it will go nuclear. The Cold War is over and nobody's dumb enough to actually use nukes (except maybe North Korea), but I do see World War III playing out as a mix of short bursts of conventional warfare combined with long bouts of guerilla warfare and counter-insurgency operations. Syria is already a proxy war at this point, I could see it escalate into World War III, but it would take a lot more than blowing up an airfield to get the Russians mad enough at us to actually declare war. So who knows?
Also, on the Korean front, I definitely see the Korean War resuming in full in our lifetimes as well, moreso than World War III even. Everyone is sick of North Korea, even their longtime ally China, and Kim Jong Un is notoriously unstable and reportedly incompetent as well. His people are starving and the government will do anything to keep them distracted lest they rise up or a military coup takes place to depose the Kims from power. It has gotten so bad that Japan has essentially re-armed and re-militarized itself in all but name and North Korea is increasingly desperate to maintain itself or take out as many people with them when they finally go down in flames. The DPRK doesn't have much gas left in the tank and I'm pretty sure Kim Jong Un and his generals know it (at least his generals, anyway), so I could easily see them doing something incredibly stupid if they felt like there was no other option. Sort of a "taking you with me" move on their part.
As others have said, if America strikes first, China may get involved for the purposes of border security and to back up old treaties, but again, this is unlikely. If North Korea attacks first, China won't even get involved at all beyond fortifying the border and shooting any refugee that dares to attempt crossing the Yalu River. North Korea's arsenal is fairly pitiful, but they could severely damage South Korea and Japan on their way out, and that is the prime concern. There's no way North Korea could hit the American mainland or even Hawaii with their current nuclear arsenal, but they could definitely fuck up South Korea and Japan, our two closest allies in the region. And therein lies the issue of what happens when the DPRK finally and inevitably collapses.
Also, on the Korean front, I definitely see the Korean War resuming in full in our lifetimes as well, moreso than World War III even. Everyone is sick of North Korea, even their longtime ally China, and Kim Jong Un is notoriously unstable and reportedly incompetent as well. His people are starving and the government will do anything to keep them distracted lest they rise up or a military coup takes place to depose the Kims from power. It has gotten so bad that Japan has essentially re-armed and re-militarized itself in all but name and North Korea is increasingly desperate to maintain itself or take out as many people with them when they finally go down in flames. The DPRK doesn't have much gas left in the tank and I'm pretty sure Kim Jong Un and his generals know it (at least his generals, anyway), so I could easily see them doing something incredibly stupid if they felt like there was no other option. Sort of a "taking you with me" move on their part.
As others have said, if America strikes first, China may get involved for the purposes of border security and to back up old treaties, but again, this is unlikely. If North Korea attacks first, China won't even get involved at all beyond fortifying the border and shooting any refugee that dares to attempt crossing the Yalu River. North Korea's arsenal is fairly pitiful, but they could severely damage South Korea and Japan on their way out, and that is the prime concern. There's no way North Korea could hit the American mainland or even Hawaii with their current nuclear arsenal, but they could definitely fuck up South Korea and Japan, our two closest allies in the region. And therein lies the issue of what happens when the DPRK finally and inevitably collapses.
