US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[babadook]

But that's just it - in the 90s. When society was still healthy and mostly functioning. Nowadays young men just aren't getting any, and look at the consequences

Jonkler gets raped

 

[WhimsicalTrolli]

Hell they couldn't even have children normally because he was so low T and they still got together.

Oh he had ivf?

but i think they even said they moved back to the wife's home town because of money issues.

Kinda overestimated Walz. I assumed he had some financial stability from his miltary stint. I think the average teacher makes 40-60 or so k nowadays starting out.

 

[thog]

@thog you and your other Colorado niggers need to vote this bitch out of office. Honestly, how can you stand her fucking face?

This state has been captured since Bush was president, unfortunately. The last time the GOP controlled either chamber of the legislature was 2018, and it was only 18-17. We have had an influx of liberals from California and Texas for the last 20 years or so, and although we successfully recalled a couple gun grabbers from the state senate in 2013 (and got another bitch to resign), it was by very slim margins. One of the only remnants of our past as the best of these United States is the Taxpayer Bill of Rights from 1992, which I'm sure won't last long because progressives love stealing money.

History lesson aside, I would bet money that the average voter here thinks she's some hero of democracy or something after she tried to take Trump off the ballot, and would vote no on recalling her even if she absolutely deserves it and worse. Hopefully Ken Paxton or whoever else is in charge of Trump's DOJ puts her through hell, because she's not going away. She might even become governor, oh boy wouldn't that be fun.

Edit: EVERY TIME:

 

[Your Girlfriend's Dad]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1852002645629960480.html

What a clown show

This has to be a violation of our new rule on Twitter posts without context.

 

[Get the rope Macaulay!]

from his miltary stint.

I'd honestly be surprised if the Nasty Girls got paid, it feels like something that should be a volunteer thing, maybe paid lunch.

But that's just it - in the 90s

that actually brings up a great point, in the 2000s Patrick Tomlinson and Nick Rekieta also were able to get women that feel very out of their league too. Meaning somewhere around the late 2000s is where it all went wrong and even complete losers couldn't get laid.

 

[WE'RE ALL GONNA]

As gay as it sounds, I was a nervous wreck all day. I've had a knot in my stomach since I woke up.

Do not give in to the inner-doomnigger. Even if this election doesn't go to Trump there's definitely a change in the air.

We're all gonna make it.

 

[ForTheHoard]

Allan Lichtman, the "Keys" guy, has released his final prediction. It's so over for Drumpf.

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I don't understand how the south goes blue with Trump pulling in record numbers with blacks and union workers.

 

[WhimsicalTrolli]

It was primarily in Philadelphia where most of the shenanigans in 2020 were committed. Not saying it didn’t happen in other places, but that was the most egregious in Pennsylvania. It’s why I hope that Philadelphia is kept more in check this year based on prior history.

What about Arizona & Georgia? Was it just McCain loyalist fucking with trump in Arizona?

 

[Amin Yasister]

But that's just it - in the 90s. When society was still healthy and mostly functioning. Nowadays young men just aren't getting any, and look at the consequences

So why do so many women have such high body counts? How?

 

[CEO of Gay]

Many election outcome maps have been posted in this thread. I bring you an extra-retarded map, not because I think it would happen, but because I think it would be funny.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has been mentioned before in this thread. As it presently stands, it would require initiatives in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia to pass, which would bring the total electoral votes to 250. The compact does not activate until 270 votes are gathered. To activate it, you would only need two of the current swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin to join. Arizona + Wisconsin would bring the total to 271 EV; all others would bring it higher.

So to entertain this retarded but funny scenario, let's pretend the NPVIC was in place today, with Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin having joined for 271. Per current polling, Donald Trump is on track to win the popular vote. With no other changes to the current prediction on 270towin.com, the map would look like this:


The fraud machines in PA and GA could work overtime to successfully force those states blue, the Democrats could get their fabled Blue Texas flip, and so long as Trump still got the national popular vote, it wouldn't matter, Trump would still win with the map looking like this:


The result would be the same, an irrefutable Trump Electoral College victory.

Think about that for a second. A Democratic interstate suicide pact, intended to ensure a Democratic president forevermore, instead, decisively shutting them out of the presidency. Since we're being retarded, can you then imagine the DNC machines in CA, NY, or IL engaging in lawfare to try to have the NPVIC reversed? And what if the Supreme Court refused to strike down the NPVIC, effectively saying, "You made your bed, now lie in it."

Can you imagine the seething? The howls of anguish and despair?

This won't happen; the NPVIC is not in effect. This is a fake and gay fantasy. But it would be so very, very funny if it did.

 

[Gehenna]

Haven't seen this posted here

Looks like there's an active and concentrated effort against the higher-risk-of-fraud states.

https://xcancel.com/America1stLegal/status/1852081145682297034 / https://archive.is/qMEyf

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This is massive and it absolutely flew by everyone here. By handing over those names the HGOP now has a list to check one simple thing. "Did or did not vote". If -any- did its a massive door open to signature match and throwing out those specific votes. This just removed a massive ton of potential fraudulent votes at best and made removing them before the election is verified in December piss easy at -worst-.

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https://x.com/hradzka/status/1852187500095103317

https://x.com/Athan_K/status/1852160439221669892

https://archive.ph/wip/kNHyZ

https://archive.ph/wip/JomXE

They found another confirmed voter fraud operation targeting PA, this one based out of Arizona.

My theory remains that while the powers that be (Obama, Clinton, Biden, etc) may have decided to take a mulligan on Kamala and use 4 years of Trump to purge and rebuild the party, the ground level types (read: useful idiots) either wouldn't get the memo, or would continue attempting to rig things without support from the Uniparty. This, alongside top autistics on the right watching shit like a hawk early and often, would result in them getting caught left and right.

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My theory is that it is just the default state of elections since forever: there's always fraud, lots of it, mostly ran by locals and not necessarily organized by the DNC itself (though they're well aware of it). The Right has always just ignored it due to laziness, cowardliness, and the neocon's love of "losing with dignity" rather than making the effort to fight. It's not like we haven't seen Democrats cheating in their own primaries before, after all.

It's just that now there's more eyes actually watching, and the RNC's new leadership actually cares to fight back with more than sharply worded letters about post-election lawsuits that never happen. So stuff that would normally just never get exposed is finally being brought into daylight.

WhiskeyJack has it right and I mentioned this before. What you are seeing is not "Oh no gotta cheat more", it is the same level of cheating as in 2020 (Maybe even slightly less), but now the GOP isn't being massive cucks. Trump's party is actively looking and attacking it -before- election day and using Early Voting, where he is massively overperforming, to do so.

A lot of Jews ARE ginger

Thank God I avoided that curse.

He got 2000 wrong and turned around and said 'Oh, my model only predicts the popular vote winner'. Then he got 2016 right but Trump didn't win the popular vote, so he turned around and claimed he adjusted his model to predict the Electoral College winner even though it fucking didn't.

It's a bullshit, highly subjective model. I don't really see how you can give any more than 3 keys to Kamala but apparently this Democratic Party shill thinks she has enough keys to win

The model itself is fine and has a good predictive ability. Like any model in the social sciences it is not foolproof. And its massively undermined and made irrelevant when you start considering it from your own political lens. Lichtman fails both. He keeps tweaking his personal results of the model to try to always be right instead of acknowledging underlying issues and he is massively biased and allowing the bias to rule.

Good tool used badly.

@Gehenna Apologies if you've already talked about this, but I don't recall seeing it.
What do you make of the argument that Trump isn't being underrepresented as much in the polls, this time around? Do you think the pollsters have adjusted their weighting to account for the usual Republican under-representation, this time?
And if they are trying to fix it, do you think there's any risk they could over-correct, causing over-representation of Trump supporters?

This is laughable cope and everyone who pushes it should rethink their lives. The reason Trump was under-polled had nothing to do with weighting (and in fact largely they have abandoned weighting -in favor of Harris-).

They are finally weighting closer to the election, and hence the sudden spree of Trump up polls, but.... they are pretty much applying stock standard weighting to everything. This isn't -bad- per se, it just means that the margin of error is 2.7 instead of the more refined and preferred 2.3.

In short, there is likely -no- systemic under polling for either candidate on any poll that shows them more or less neck-and-neck. and anything that isn't 3+ in the polls should be considered a 50/50 chance.



As a side note, -be less sure of Trump's victory-. Treat it as if he was down 3 points in every single poll. Treat it like a Blue Wave is imminent and you better get out and vote. Bring ten people to vote with you.

 

[WhimsicalTrolli]

So why do so many women have such high body counts? How?

I'll chalk it up to dating older men, like the freshman girl dating juniors/seniors upon entering high school, or after high school they can easily sleep around with 25-45 year old men who don't have the baggage of having to build something because most men that age has a career, or they are dating the same pool of popular/rich/success boys/men, hence groups like "are We dAtInG tHe SaMe GuY?!?" Like yeah no shit.

You'd be amazed (in awe & disgust) how many body's a woman get in middle/high school because pressure from other women for social climbing/bfs who overselling the relationship or the aftermath of CSA.

 

[AnotherPleb]

So why do so many women have such high body counts? How?

A few guys are getting a lot of gals.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

What about Arizona & Georgia? Was it just McCain loyalist fucking with trump in Arizona?

Georgia GOP is ran by RINOs who likely traded their state's electoral votes and Senate seat to the Democrats in exchange for the Democrats stepping aside and letting them cruise to the governor's mansion and some other state offices.

 

[AnotherPleb]

As a side note, -be less sure of Trump's victory-. Treat it as if he was down 3 points in every single poll. Treat it like a Blue Wave is imminent and you better get out and vote. Bring ten people to vote with you.

This is how I look at it. I'm not trying to let myself get complacent.

 

[WhimsicalTrolli]

A few guys are getting a lot of gals.

"Are We dAtInG tHe SaMe guy" in full effect.

This is how I look at it. I'm not trying to let myself get complacent.

Basically, if you expect disappointment, you won't get disappointed.

 

[Crex Crex]

I don't understand how the south goes blue with Trump pulling in record numbers with blacks and union workers.

Lichtman has been a full-blown terminal case of TDS since 2017. I think he's so incensed, he can't bring himself to admit Trump has the advantage this year. IIRC even that other faggot Nate Silver called him out for misapplying his own criteria to predict a Kamala victory.
Oh and he also was vehemently against Biden dropping out, only to then come out and say that Harris akschually has this in the bag. If that's not a desperate flip-flop to salvage morale, I don't know what is.

 

[Kane Lives]

I''m just curious if Trump will over-perform his polls again. If he does, she's in serious trouble.

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I think Trump's "overperformance" will be much more muted this time. The whole reason the "shy Trump/GOP voter" effect exist is because the overwhelming political discourse in both 2020 and 2022 were overwhelmingly negative to expressing any sort of even mildly positive view of Trump.

This year however, it has become much more acceptable to state such, and along with how the unlikeable Cuntmala was and how badly the Israel Question has split the normally unified Left. So I suspect what we see here would be very close to how the election will turn out.

 

[merrybrandybuck]

Lichtman has been a full-blown terminal case of TDS since 2017. I think he's so incensed he can't bring himself to admit Trump has the advantage this year, IIRC even that other faggot Nate Silver called him out for misapplying his own criteria to predict a Kamala victory.
Oh and he also was vehemently against Biden dropping out, only to then come out and say that Harris akschually has this in the bag. If that's not a desperate flip-flop to salvage morale, I don't know what is.

He was posting about how Biden was the only one with a chance of winning like an hour before they announced he's dropping out.

 

[Get the rope Macaulay!]

So why do so many women have such high body counts? How?

quick reminder that Ramona Flowers only had 7 exes and that was considered an absurdly high amount for a 23 year old woman in the 2000s. Although to be more honest the bitch in 4 weddings and a funeral in 93 said she fucked 32 guys, which is still a lot and was probably more of a joke about americans considering one of those sexual partners was a cousin.

I do know one chick who said she had a body count of over 600, but she was also a victim of CSA, and identifies as non-binary and is 40 and has been a hardcore drug addict since high school. I assume the average body count for trans people has to be 1000. I remember her telling me of an orgy she had with 8 other trans and NB "people"

As for True and Honest women i'd assume its more of a culture thing, as well as age. especially if you're a younger millennial and didn't get brainwashed with the aids crisis and other stuff. If you notice the red pill and MGTOW stuff doesn't really gain popularity until the 2010s. Plenty of dudes were able to get laid even while being lolcows in the 2000s.

You'd be amazed (in awe & disgust) how many body's a woman get in middle/high school because pressure from other women for social climbing/bfs who overselling the relationship or the aftermath of CSA.

demographic issues help too, a white girl in a majority minority school will act as sexual as the ghetto chicks do, whereas you'll have somewhat of a similar effect if its a token minority in an all white school. You also have the same thing happen when girls get to college, plenty that go from kissless virgins to double digits in the first week of college just from the freedom of the dorms.