US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[Irene and 22 others]

RCP average of polls battleground states 10/31, a typical tightening of the polls as election day nears, causing WI and MI to flip in the aggregate

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The Wisconsin numbers are almost entirely the result of a single CNN poll that's heavily out of line with every other recent poll from the state.



My guess is that they wanted to push a narrative and threw out a ridiculous result that would make it seem like Harris regained the lead. If you bother to read the full results (link) the reported margin of error is 4.9%. Additionally there are some other things that would cause me to question the actual validity of the results including the following:

The Michigan and Pennsylvania samples included an oversample of voters modeled as likely African American on the voter file. All states’ samples additionally included an oversample of voters ages 18 – 34. All oversampled groups were weighted to their correct share of the registered voter population.

The report goes into more detail, but it's clear statistical fuckery was applied after the fact because they disproportionately sampled some groups. If you look at the crosstabs, the oversampled group favors Harris. Did they properly correct for this with their weighting? Your guess is as good as mine because there's insufficient data to determine whether or not it's properly done or bogus. If anyone else wants to crawl through the data to find other indicators they're more than welcome to, but I'm not going to put too much faith in this poll.

 

[2ndBest]

Eh, /pol/ was fun during ZimZam and the 2026 election.

Who wins this election, time traveler?

 

[Rykel22]

The Wisconsin numbers are almost entirely the result of a single CNN poll that's heavily out of line with every other recent poll from the state.

Ver archivo adjunto 6581693

My guess is that they wanted to push a narrative and threw out a ridiculous result that would make it seem like Harris regained the lead. If you bother to read the full results (link) the reported margin of error is 4.9%. Additionally there are some other things that would cause me to question the actual validity of the results including the following:



The report goes into more detail, but it's clear statistical fuckery was applied after the fact because they disproportionately sampled some groups. If you look at the crosstabs, the oversampled group favors Harris. Did they properly correct for this with their weighting? Your guess is as good as mine because there's insufficient data to determine whether or not it's properly done or bogus. If anyone else wants to crawl through the data to find other indicators they're more than welcome to, but I'm not going to put too much faith in this poll.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

 

[FunPosting101]

Just dropping by to wish you guys a happy Halloween and to remind all of you to always ignore the blackpill-pushing faggots.

 

[ClownJoey41X]

New York has become even more gentrified and has massive population shifts. It's a massive problem.

The economy has always been terrible and it's very common for kids who grew up in NY to not be able to afford to live in NY and move elsewhere with a lower cost of living (Upstate NY, PA, NJ, TN, etc) and this has been happening for at least ~30 years. They get replaced by immigrants (usually Spanish). NYC saw Whites go from 76% of the population in just 1970 to 34% in 2020 (not including illegals which aren't counted). The rest of the state isn't that bad by comparison but it's been a seismic shift through the last 20 years - enough people have been replaced where NY quite literally just isn't the same anymore.

So when you say "New Yorkers" - you have to clarify because tons of native New Yorkers have fled New York and tons of transplants have moved in and become New Yorkers.

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There are pockets and such that are the same, of course, but if you were to put someone from 1990 in a time machine and take them to today - they would find NY unrecognizable.

You do know New York (and surrounding metro area) is THE premier hub for immigrants to the US right?, and has been since even before independence all the way back during the colonial times, the city has seen countless waves of immigration, from the Dutch, English, German, Irish, Slavic, Italians during the 19th to early 20th century to now Latin Americans, Middle Easterners, Asians, Africans and wherever else, all this talk of "replacement" from foreign immigrants amuses me when it has been happening countless times for the past 400 years

"Oh no the ethnically diverse and cosmopolitan city is ethnically diverse and cosmopolitan, THIS MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN"

 

[DoomsdayElite]

Turns out that Colorado knew their voting machines had their passwords leaked for a week before it became public and did nothing about it. Their justification? "We did not decide not to disclose [the information to the clerks and the public]; we were still working with Federal officials and had not made that decision"

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https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851756986456568088

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/UU9B6

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sjPCG0saK041U8Q5.mp4
https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851757516415291447 (earlier archive covers this)

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rgVcXeeGIpzg9Lam.mp4
https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851757989742481626 (earlier archive covers this)

"a string of errors." riiiiiiiiight. isn't this the same cunt who threw a shit fit when SCOTUS ruled Colorado couldn't remove Trump from the ballot in her state?

 

[SpergioLeonne]

You do know New York (and surrounding metro area) is THE premier hub for immigrants to the US right?, and has been since even before independence all the way back during the colonial times, the city has seen countless waves of immigration, from the Dutch, English, German, Irish, Slavic, Italians during the 19th to early 20th century to now Latin Americans, Middle Easterners, Asians, Africans and wherever else, all this talk of "replacement" from foreign immigrants amuses me when it has been happening countless times for the past 400 years

"Oh no the ethnically diverse and cosmopolitan city is ethnically diverse and cosmopolitan, THIS MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN"

Sorry dude, my Slav forebears skipped the hellhole. Even they knew you can’t plant potatoes in asphalt

 

[Onepumpplumpchump]

W

Turns out that Colorado knew their voting machines had their passwords leaked for a week before it became public and did nothing about it. Their justification? "We did not decide not to disclose [the information to the clerks and the public]; we were still working with Federal officials and had not made that decision"

Ver archivo adjunto 6581711

https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851756986456568088

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/UU9B6

Ver archivo adjunto 6581712
sjPCG0saK041U8Q5.mp4
https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851757516415291447 (earlier archive covers this)

Ver archivo adjunto 6581716
rgVcXeeGIpzg9Lam.mp4
https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851757989742481626 (earlier archive covers this)

What in the actual fuck.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS]

Turns out that Colorado knew their voting machines had their passwords leaked for a week before it became public and did nothing about it. Their justification? "We did not decide not to disclose [the information to the clerks and the public]; we were still working with Federal officials and had not made that decision"

Ver archivo adjunto 6581711

https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851756986456568088

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/UU9B6

Ver archivo adjunto 6581712
sjPCG0saK041U8Q5.mp4
https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851757516415291447 (earlier archive covers this)

Ver archivo adjunto 6581716
rgVcXeeGIpzg9Lam.mp4
https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851757989742481626 (earlier archive covers this)

The best copeout is OH ITS A MISTAKE, ERROR, INCOMPeTENCE but every time it's in the favor of one party.
It's so fucking tiresome.

 

[Francis York Morgan]

Honestly, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the DNC party leaders all got together months ago and collectively concluded that 4 years of Trump was a better deal for them than having Kamala ruining their chances of getting Newsom (or Shapiro) in 2028.

I've got bad news for both of them - unless there's a dramatic upheaval in the party, neither of them have a chance at wholly winning over the base. The progressives will feel that Newsom is a return to the party being about rich white men while Shapiro is going to be eating shit from the Hamas supporters they've enabled.

 

[#FF0000]

This is the REAL election

 

[Collections Agent]

The liberals in America stigmatize people on the right as racist, sexist, violent religious regressives, and regardless if that's a scapegoat or not, most of the people in this thread, especially the ones who responded to me with such vitriol are literally the definition of what they're stigmatizing.

I'm sorry you live life through generalizations of people you disagree with and offend you as -ists and -isms but you're on one of the least bigoted websites on the planet

No one, I mean literally no one, gives a single fuck who you are, what religion you are, what skin color you have, what sexuality you are, anything.

People here care about if you contribute to threads, provide sources, or make funny/clever observations.

Screaming 'racist' and 'sexist' nonstop makes you look stupid and probably makes you miserable IRL, strongly recommend against it. People are multifaceted and wondrous works of gods creation that can have deep, complex, and sometimes contradictory views based on their lived experiences. Immediately classifying someone as a untouchable the second they say anything out of line is small-minded and if you'd pardon my language, retarded in the literal sense of having arrested social development.

I would love for you to do some self reflection and realize if someone says a slur or an edgy joke, or even just posts objective statistics, that doesn't immediately classify that person as a hate mongering supremacist that wants to kill everyone. Likely they were just making a crude joke.

 

[Hey Johnny Bravo]

Turns out that Colorado knew their voting machines had their passwords leaked for a week before it became public and did nothing about it. Their justification? "We did not decide not to disclose [the information to the clerks and the public]; we were still working with Federal officials and had not made that decision"

Ver archivo adjunto 6581711

https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851756986456568088

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/UU9B6

Ver archivo adjunto 6581712
sjPCG0saK041U8Q5.mp4
https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851757516415291447 (earlier archive covers this)

Ver archivo adjunto 6581716
rgVcXeeGIpzg9Lam.mp4
https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1851757989742481626 (earlier archive covers this)

Wasn't there some stop the steal Republican in Colorado a few years ago who pointed out that these machines could be easily hacked and fucked with, and she got lawfare'd to death?

 

[WhimsicalTrolli]

I'm curious why would liberals worry about trooning out or abortion if you can't even afford rent or groceries.

 

[God of Nothing]

W

What in the actual fuck.

do you need any further proof 2020 was stolen?

I'm curious why would liberals worry about trooning out or abortion if you can't even afford rent or groceries.

all anyone really wants at the end of the day is peace of mind
for the retarded liberal, it's cutting the genitals off children and putting a nigger in yale

 

[Too Many Catgirls]

Honestly, if Kamala wins, I think the union is dead. She has no leadership skills, popular support, charisma, or even anything resembling intelligence. The military is slowly rotting due to DEI and other issues, creating a manpower shortage and a competency crisis. The feds left citizens out in the rain while they spent their FEMA funds on illegals. Communities are being replaced by pet eating troglodytes who don't appreciate the US. The cracks started to show under Biden when Texas told the feds to shove it and bussed illegals to blue cities while defending their own boarder and I think that attitude will only grow in some red states if it is clear we are now living in a Dem oligarchy resulting in states to succeeded in all but name. After all if the feds are not holding up to their end of their bargain, why should the states do?

If Kamala wins in unconvincing fashion, I will stop paying taxes. I'm just about done with these people.

 

[2ndBest]

I'm curious why would liberals worry about trooning out or abortion if you can't even afford rent or groceries.

Most of them are all more or less single issue voters. They're not thinking about the bigger picture and how overall of a ripple effect everything put in place can affect the populace.

 

[COME ON OUT YOU RAPIST]

Alright I'll stop posting in this thread since I've exhausted the enjoyment I can get from poking fun at people, but for everyone in here, you're all aware of what you are, right? The liberals in America stigmatize people on the right as racist, sexist, violent religious regressives, and regardless if that's a scapegoat or not, most of the people in this thread, especially the ones who responded to me with such vitriol are literally the definition of what they're stigmatizing. You guys are the overexaggerated minority they're projecting onto most of the right. Maybe have some prescience and realize acting like this even anonymously does nothing but bolster their argument through example.

This election is going so well that we're even receiving fresh copypasta.

 

[Hey Johnny Bravo]

I found the name of the person I mentioned above in Colorado - Tina Peters. They sentenced her to 9 years. Guess who helped put Peters in jail? Jena Griswold.

There's a biased Wikipedia article about the whole thing and, unfortunately, I don't have the time to present the whole story at the moment. However, it was indeed Griswold who helped put this Peters woman in jail. Really nags the neurons.

 

[Party Hat Wurmple]

Honestly, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the DNC party leaders all got together months ago and collectively concluded that 4 years of Trump was a better deal for them than having Kamala ruining their chances of getting Newsom (or Shapiro) in 2028.

It sure as fuck seems like they did. They're just letting their typical bs happen and hoping for the best from what I can see. All the cheating happening now is coming from different parties and doesn't seem nearly as coordinated. It seems like the Uniparty is leaving it up to their lawsuits.