tl;dr - Trump just put a gun to Iran's economy. He hit every military target on Kharg Island, left the oil terminals standing, and said "open Hormuz or I finish the job."
Good end: Iran takes the off-ramp, symbolic face-saving bullshit, ceasefire within a week.
Bad end: IRGC says "fuck it," hits Gulf oil infrastructure, Trump destroys Kharg, oil goes to $150, everyone loses.
WTF end: IRGC goes one way, civilian government goes the other. Publicly. This means Kharg isn't worth hitting because you'd be punishing the people trying to stop the war. Grinding uncertainty for weeks.
Most likely: the good end. Iran's been signaling through back-channels for days. But "most likely" isn't "certain" and the weekend is long.
He intentionally did not strike oil. He struck military and said "I've got you by the balls." He does.
Trump wants it over one way or another and this is the key.