BERLIN ― Friedrich Merz’s failure to win enough parliamentary votes to become chancellor as expected in a first vote on Tuesday shocked the country’s political establishment and exposed the peril he now faces, even as he promises to become a strong leader for Europe.
Though Merz ultimately succeeded in a second vote later in the day, he will begin his chancellorship as
a wounded and weakened figure.
Germany’s most important and powerful ally for many decades — the United States — had already undermined Merz at every turn. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump appears intent on weakening him further by bolstering his chief political opponents, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Even in the period between winning the election in February and becoming leader, Merz’s
approval ratings have dropped sharply as the AfD — set to become the largest opposition party in parliament — has attacked him relentlessly. What Merz may not have predicted is that the AfD would get help from the Trump administration.
After Germany’s federal domestic intelligence agency
classified the AfD last week as a “proven” extremist organization — a designation that is fueling
a long-simmering domestic debate on whether to ban the AfD under German law provisions intended to prevent a repeat of the Nazi past — the party received backing from the highest ranking members of Trump’s cabinet.
The extremist label was “tyranny in disguise,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said
in a post on X. “What is truly extremist is not the popular AfD, but rather the establishment’s deadly open border immigration policies that the AfD opposes.” U.S. Vice President JD Vance echoed the sentiment, saying “the German establishment” was effectively rebuilding the Berlin Wall.
Merz ― of the center right Christian Democrats (CDU) ― is part of the German establishment that Rubio and Vance were disparaging. Despite vowing to lead a severe crackdown on migration, Merz has refused to govern in coalition with the anti-immigration AfD, which came in second place in the February election, the best result for the far right in Germany’s postwar history, deeming the party to be too extreme. Instead he opted for the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which scored its worst result in a national election since the 19th century.
This puts Merz in a uniquely risky political position. As the far right rises, he finds himself presiding over a coalition of crumbling mainstream parties that once dominated Germany’s political landscape. His coalition government of mainstream, centrist parties will hold one of the slimmest parliamentary majorities since World War II, with just 52 percent of seats.
Centrist governments comprising the SPD and Merz’s conservative bloc have long been referred to as “grand coalitions” for their sweeping majorities. But there’s nothing imposing about Merz’s “grand coalition,” which is the weakest such partnership in history and leaves the conservative leader open to accusations he’s leading a remnant of a vanishing order.
The rise of the AfD
In this position as de-facto leader of the faltering establishment, Merz is particularly vulnerable to attacks from the AfD. The party’s leaders incessantly depict Merz as a closet leftist because of his refusal to govern with them and due to his
embrace of debt-fueled spending after his election victory, a complete reversal from his campaign rhetoric.
Already the AfD appears to be benefiting from that dynamic. The party has risen in the polls as Merz’s conservative CDU has fallen,
topping one survey released in late April for the first time.
The Trump administration’s persistent support for the AfD could further destigmatize the party in Germany and reinforce the AfD narrative that it has been unfairly targeted for political persecution.
“Since the AfD is the strongest party in polls now, they want to suppress the opposition & freedom of speech,” AfD co-leader Alice Weidel
wrote on X in response to Rubio.
Merz on Monday said he found it “inconceivable” that AfD leaders will become chairs of parliamentary committees, particularly in light of the domestic intelligence agency’s classification of the party as extremist. In doing so he ended a debate that his own parliamentary group leader had
initiated last month with a proposal that would have radically softened the conservatives’ approach to the extreme right.
Trade, NATO and Ukraine
The American support for the AfD may well supersede all other difficulties in the transatlantic alliance, said Dominik Tolksdorf, an expert on the transatlantic relationship at the German Council on Foreign Relations, a research institute.
“This is a huge problem for Merz and at least as serious as many of the other debates we’re currently having on trade, NATO and Ukraine,” he said. “If the Trump administration wants to, it could use this accusation [that the AfD is being suppressed] to put pressure on the German government. How the next government will deal with this whole new dimension in the coming months is a big question.”
Merz has pledged to take on a greater leadership role within Europe, but his domestic weakness is likely to hinder his ability to do so. Ahead of the failed initial vote on Tuesday, he had planned to travel to Warsaw and Paris on Wednesday in an effort to revive the so-called Weimar Triangle of Poland, Germany and France — an informal alliance he views as key to driving a more assertive European defense policy.
Many Europeans “are waiting for us to once again make a powerful contribution to the success of the European project,” Merz said in Berlin on Monday. “We are living in times of profound change, of deep upheaval … And that is why we know that it is downright our historic duty to lead this coalition to success.”
As Merz pursues that goal, one thing has become clear: The Trump administration will be working against him.
This article has been updated to reflect unfolding events.
