Business United Arab Emirates says it will leave OPEC effective May 1

By JON GAMBRELL

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This is a locator map for United Arab Emirates with its capital, Abu Dhabi. (AP Photo)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United Arab Emirates announced Tuesday that it will leave the oil cartel OPEC and its wider OPEC+ group effective May 1, a move rumored for some time as the Emirates chaffed under production restrictions and increasingly had frostier relations with neighboring Saudi Arabia.

The UAE had been a longtime member of OPEC, first through its emirate of Abu Dhabi in 1967 and later when the UAE became its own country in 1971.

But the UAE has been increasingly trying to leverage its own foreign policy in the Middle East that has contradicted some positions of Riyadh over time — particularly as Saudi Arabia began to directly challenge the Emirates in trying to draw foreign investments as the kingdom opened up under assertive Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The UAE made the announcement via its state-run WAM news agency.

“This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production, and reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets,” the UAE said.

“Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions,” the country added.

Saudi Arabia long has been considered a heavy weight of OPEC, an oil cartel based in Vienna that has seen some of its market power wane as the United States increased its production of crude oil in recent years.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasingly have competed over economic issues and regional politics, particularly in the Red Sea area. The two countries had joined in together in a coalition to fight against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels in 2015. However, that coalition broke down into recriminations in late December, when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for Yemeni separatists backed by the UAE.

Saudi broadcasters long based in Dubai, the economic hub of the UAE, have pulled back to the kingdom in recent months as well as the tensions rose.

Source (Archive)
 
How big a deal is this to OPEC? I need numbers!
According to Brave's AI summary its close to 2.7 million barrels a day in exports of just raw crude, with a sizeable refining sector providing its own export goods. They're right behind the Saudis when it comes to how big their overall economy is, so its a big fucking deal.
 
According to Brave's AI summary its close to 2.7 million barrels a day in exports of just raw crude, with a sizeable refining sector providing its own export goods. They're right behind the Saudis when it comes to how big their overall economy is, so its a big fucking deal.
And the actual impact is going to be outsized even relative to that large share of the output, Cartel pricing power breaks down very fast as they lose supermajority control.
 
Emiratis need to keep their books shored up with greater oil production, now that Riyadh is muscling in on their position as a free zone for financial services.
 
The UAE has been trying to position itself as the best US ally in the middle east for a while now.

My question is: was this always a plan or were they told that this is what it would take?
UAE fucked with the Saudis in Yemen by propping up a third party against the Houthis using Chinese weapons and lost, badly. Now their reputation as a safe haven for "entrepreneurs" and high net worth individuals has shattered when influencers momentarily remembered the real world exists, and it sometimes bombs your soulless, vapid high rise apartment. Now's the best time to be looking for allies even if it means parting your cheeks to the West.
 
Does this mean the price of gas will go down? I'm sick and tired of paying California prices even though I live in the Midwestern sticks.
In theory yes. The UAE has spare production capacity and has a lower "break even" price than Saudi Arabia (basically, it can get away with selling oil for cheaper without causing a budget deficit, in part because it has a more diversified economy). If other OPEC countries follow suit it could even lead to an oil price war.
In practice not for a while, because the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, so that oil can't make it to market at the moment. Also other Gulf infrastructure is damaged so it would depend if the increase in UAE capacity would offset lost capacity elsewhere.
 
UAE fucked with the Saudis in Yemen by propping up a third party against the Houthis using Chinese weapons and lost, badly. Now their reputation as a safe haven for "entrepreneurs" and high net worth individuals has shattered when influencers momentarily remembered the real world exists, and it sometimes bombs your soulless, vapid high rise apartment. Now's the best time to be looking for allies even if it means parting your cheeks to the West.
They would be more tolerable as partners than those Saudi savages I guess
 
In practice not for a while, because the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, so that oil can't make it to market at the moment.
Except UAE's main oil terminal is on the east coast, outside the strait and relatively secure from Iranian attack. The only thing preventing them from fully exploiting this advantage has been Saudi constraints through OPEC.
 
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