UN UK Snap election 8th June 2017 - Oh boy another U turn.

News is still comming in as i post this but this is indded intreating.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603

 

[Ginger Piglet]

Been trying to dig up this Peter Wright character. Leaving aside the QC, the former editor of the Daily Mail, and the darts player of the same name, most likely candidate I can find is a former Lib Dem councillor who in 2007 was jailed for wife beating, and then it came out that he used to be a mercenary in Angola:

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co...s/mercenary-past-of-shamed-councillor-1047157

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co...ced-councillor-claims-6000-allowances-1047983

This would fit in with his conspiratarding about how THEY stitched him up in 2006 and fined him and suchlike and former mercenaries aren't generally the most stable people around...

 

[HG 400]

a village fete

village fete? wtf it's current year

 

[Chemical snorfare]

village fete? wtf it's current year

Would you prefer "bloke him dollaz count" and "pie on a flyblown wasteland"?

 

[ICametoLurk]

Anything other than the House of Stuart abolishing parliament and ruling by Divine Right is a mistake.

Git fucked Whigs.

 

[millais]

Anything other than the House of Stuart abolishing parliament and ruling by Divine Right is a mistake.

Git fucked Whigs.

begone anarchomonarchist. dieu et mon droit is no mandate to rule!

 

[Ginger Piglet]

Anything other than the House of Stuart abolishing parliament and ruling by Divine Right is a mistake.

Git fucked Whigs.

Sealed Knot convention is that way.

 

[CWCissey]

Anything other than the House of Stuart abolishing parliament and ruling by Divine Right is a mistake.

Git fucked Whigs.

 

[Chemical snorfare]

I never understood the Guy Fawkes thing.

Yeah he tried to blow up parliament, but it was to reinstall a papist absolutist monarchy.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

The halt of all political campaigning has left an interesting situation, postal votes are going out (I've already sent mine back) yet some parties like the SNP haven't even released their manifesto, I'm looking forward to seeing the next poll because I can't see Labour keeping their recent bounce in the polls.

Talking of Labour Andrew Neil is interviewing Corbyn on Friday (7pm BBC 1) which should be good given the comments he gave about IRA bombers before the Manchester attack.

 

[Ginger Piglet]

Amazingly, the gap has narrowed even further according to the BBC this morning.

This is rapidly becoming Theresa May's election to lose, not Jeremy Corbyn's to win.

 

[Chemical snorfare]

The halt of all political campaigning has left an interesting situation, postal votes are going out (I've already sent mine back

That would explain the rather flustered looking Imam Ive just seen trying to ram fistfulls of paper into a post box.

 

[Lorento]

Amazingly, the gap has narrowed even further according to the BBC this morning.

This is rapidly becoming Theresa May's election to lose, not Jeremy Corbyn's to win.

If she blows this lead, it would be Clinton tier levels of failure.

 

[Sable]

Amazingly, the gap has narrowed even further according to the BBC this morning.

This is rapidly becoming Theresa May's election to lose, not Jeremy Corbyn's to win.

I'd be worried, but I don't really trust polls, not since the Brexit vote at least.

She could still lose if she's catastrophically stupid of course, but I'm hoping that's not the case- the worse case scenario is it being close, meaning anyone hoping to get in power would probably need some sort of horrible coalition.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Such a dip seems incredibly unusual, but a number of polling figures were taken during the Manchester attack, so its possible that a good chunk of support has bled away temporarily. It seems rather odd to me that, when you check the figures, they've dropped 7-8% but those votes have seemingly disappeared.

They've not gone to Labour (or if they have, less than half of them have) nor the Lib Dems or UKIP or the other useless parties (indeed UKIP's dropped another point). They've just gone.

I can't find sample sizes for either poll too.

What I personally suspect has happened is that they've had to rely on different people answering the phone/emailing etc. People were too busy watching TV, reading the papers etc to be seriously bothered to answer about the poll.

I also wonder if people are saying they're going to vote labour as a further warning to May to water down the "dementia tax" a little further.

I really hope the Tories climb back up in polling in this last fortnight run as right now the voting would give the government a majority of two.

The alternative doesn't bare thinking about.

EDIT: The yougov poll is using their old method and sample size of around 2,000. It doesn't use the newer Ashcroft Model which polls 4,000, so it seems sample sizes may be at play here.

 

[Lorento]

I really hope the Tories climb back up in polling in this last fortnight run as right now the voting would give the government a majority of two.

That would arguably be just as bad as losing. She called the election because she truly thought she would have a devastating victory. Anything less than that IS a failure.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

Amazingly, the gap has narrowed even further according to the BBC this morning.

This is rapidly becoming Theresa May's election to lose, not Jeremy Corbyn's to win.

The latest poll for people who haven't seen it:

I was surprised too, this must be how the Remain voters must have felt but YouGov did have a caveat they released at the same time:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/are-tories-losing-ground-or-regaining-it/

It looks like Corbyn is pushing hard that police cuts and unpopular foreign wars are to blame for the attack so I guess how that goes over with average voter will have some effect on the polls/election.

The dementia tax looks incredibly toxic with people seeing it as a stealth inheritance tax to take away the middle classes properties to pay for care.

I've talked to several people over the last few years in care homes who are already resentful thinking they shouldn't have bothered saving any money since poor people get it for free while they pay huge fees.

 

[Absolutego]

The Tories thought being pro-Brexit would be enough for a landslide and tried to shove too many of their unpopular positions into the agenda while they were ahead. Re-legalizing fox hunting and more internet surveillance is driving away the former UKIP and Labour voters who were drifting towards the Conservatives because their former party is either a) obsolete or b) controlled by a retarded sect of champagne socialists.

 

[Chemical snorfare]

I've talked to several people over the last few years in care homes who are already resentful thinking they shouldn't have bothered saving any money since poor people get it for free while they pay huge fees.

Putting aside the resentment, its the economically sensible thing to do. If they'd spent the money they tied up in housing on goods and services, the tax revenue might have made their care home place free as well.

We are a bit weird when it comes to "investing" in houses.

 

[Ginger Piglet]

Well, Corbyn is due for a Brillo'ing at 7.00 pm. This, combined with his rather boneheaded "they're the real victims" response to the Manchester bombing might just put his lot back in the dirt again. More conspiratarding from Labour candidates and supporters about said bombing isn't helping either.

That being said, the dementia tax was a footbullet. Tories need to come out with some actually workable policies or they risk snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Well, Corbyn is due for a Brillo'ing at 7.00 pm. This, combined with his rather boneheaded "they're the real victims" response to the Manchester bombing might just put his lot back in the dirt again. More conspiratarding from Labour candidates and supporters about said bombing isn't helping either.

That being said, the dementia tax was a footbullet. Tories need to come out with some actually workable policies or they risk snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Worse still, if you check the rescheduled Brillo'ing list May's interview has seemingly vanished.

I'm becoming legitimately worried as to how this is going so wrong. Our seat's likely to be fine (for some reason Labour keeps obsessively sending in candidates from another county instead of picking locals) but the country's another matter.