UK General Election

[Picklechu]

This is fun. Assuming that polling is accurate, it paints an interesting picture. A hung parliament is almost certain, although a minority Labour government is a slim possibility.

EDIT: Exit polls are way off from the polling. They show the Conservative Party with 316 seats.

 

[Laevateinn]

This is fun. Assuming that polling is accurate, it paints an interesting picture. A hung parliament is almost certain, although a minority Labour government is a slim possibility.

EDIT: Exit polls are way off from the polling. They show the Conservative Party with 316 seats.

Yeah, it's best to take Exit polls with a grain of salt, a little bit like the weather forecast. Still, it's interesting to see that they're predicting that the Conservatives will have the majority.

 

[JU 199]

I think the exit poll is accurate. Call it gut intuition

 

[Holdek]

Not now, the ship has sailed. But immediately after the referendum when Salmond resigned he earned a lot of peoples respect; by contrast labour went into meltdown with its leader quitting and throwing a huge tantrum over 'being run like a branch office' and then the disaster that is Murphy put in her place. If a) the change in leader had been smoother and b) a more popular leader had been chosen then they might have been able to contest with the snp for the large numbers of newly engaging voters. As it was while the snp were out drumming up new membership from the yes crowd labour were busy fighting each other.

Scottish labour is in a hard place- its politicians are all very much new labour, as they have to be for the labour party to win votes elsewhere in the uk, but the scottish electorate is still old labour. Whatever it was in the culture that kept the electorate with this Old labour view through the thatcher years did the same through blair and brown. Just like the conservatives in the 70's and 80's the current labour party finds it cannot compete with the snp on the left- which is where all the votes are in scotland. Unlike the conservatives it cannot just focus on the right and right off scotland as the conservatives already have that ground. Unable to come up with policies of their own that would win over the electorate here (as it would risk losing swing seat votes down south) SLab are forced to attack the snp instead. So while the SNP are out saying 'yes we can' SL are stuck with 'no we can't' which of course attracts far fewer votes.

They really needed a Donald Dewar- someone who could connect with the electorate and earn their respect, instead they put in a man on the furthest right section of the party to lead in its most leftwing electorate. If Brown had taken over the leadership this likely wouldn't have happened, he was never as unpopular in Scotland as he was in England and comfortably won the 2010 election up here. People are used to seeing the media get Scotland wrong all the time so often were more sympathetic to Brown, seeing him as doing the best he could in a difficult situation with a hostile media. He also won a lot of respect for his speeches in the referendum campaign. I'm, aware brown is very much newlabour aswell but he is a far more capable politician than Murphy and consequently far more popular!

Wasn't Scotland an Lib Dem stronghold until the coalition? I know the leader before Nick Clegg was Scottish.

 

[Holdek]

As an American, I'm watching returns on C-SPAN, courtesy of ITV. So far for the few they've announced UKIP voters moved to the Tories at the last minute.

Other observations: it's almost 1:30 in the morning in the UK but they have top political guests for interviews. Also, I like how they make all the candidates stand on stage on the stage at the same time to hear the results called out one-by-one; it seems appropriately British to make the smaller party candidates be shamed with an low vote haul announced and just two or three people in the crowd applauding.

 

[CWCissey]

Wasn't Scotland an Lib Dem stronghold until the coalition? I know the leader before Nick Clegg was Scottish.

No it was always a Labour stronghold. Though they did have a couple of Lib Dem seats in the highlands. That's all changed now.

 

[DuskEngine]

 

[CWCissey]

Does anyone know if Paddy Ashdown wants ketchup or barbecue sauce with his hat?

 

[Holdek]

Damn. These results are shocking. Conservatives winning an outright majority? Between this and the US in 2014, I'm wondering if there's a crises in polling.

 

[Holdek]

No it was always a Labour stronghold. Though they did have a couple of Lib Dem seats in the highlands. That's all changed now.

Ah, just reading now that Charles Kennedy lost his seat to the SNP tonight.

 

[CWCissey]

Ah, just reading now that Charles Kennedy lost his seat to the SNP tonight.

The man's a sad drunk anyway. Although I suppose that's par for the course if you're leading the Lib Dems!

Damn. These results are shocking. Conservatives winning an outright majority? Between this and the US in 2014, I'm wondering if there's a crises in polling.

It's not really a crisis in polling, rather a crisis in candidates. All the political parties are fucking awful.

 

[Gagamaru]

farage lost. i laughed.

 

[gamer2014]

Well Nigel Farage didn't win in Thanet South.

UKIP get 13% of the vote and get 1 seat, yet SNP get 56 seats with less voters.

 

[DuskEngine]

farage lost. i laughed.

I watched a bit of the post-results livestream and he tried to go in this weird tangent about how UKIP was popular among working women that got booed down.

He agreed to resign if he lost the seat, right? Has he indicated he's going to go through with that?

Also- why exactly do people hate Ed Miliband so much? He comes across as some kind of weird robot-man, but still, it didn't seem like the Tories needed to do much but go "at least we're better than Labour-SNP" in their campaign.

 

[Picklechu]

The SNP decapitated Labour, Farage lost, UKIP got one seat, and the Tories are at 323 seats as of right now (which is a majority assuming that Sinn Fein refuses to take their seats and is three short if not). I think that a lot of voters (especially UKIP voters and undecided voters in England) swung back to the Tories due to concerns about a potential Labour/SNP coalition.

 

[Fareal]

Damn. These results are shocking. Conservatives winning an outright majority? Between this and the US in 2014, I'm wondering if there's a crises in polling.

Tbh apart from fucking Iain Duncan Smith etc, Tories in Britain are no more right wing than Democrats in the US. Less right wing on some things. England naturally votes Tory; it's just gone back to that. Labour have been cleansed from Scotland because they have fucked us for so long.

 

[CWCissey]

I watched a bit of the post-results livestream and he tried to go in this weird tangent about how UKIP was popular among working women that got booed down.

He agreed to resign if he lost the seat, right? Has he indicated he's going to go through with that?

Also- why exactly do people hate Ed Miliband so much? He comes across as some kind of weird robot-man, but still, it didn't seem like the Tories needed to do much but go "at least we're better than Labour-SNP" in their campaign.

I think he may. Cameron just claimed three scalps tonight, Ed the Dead Duck, Cleggy and Farage are all indicating that they're resigning.

And everyone hates Ed because he stabbed his more politically astute brother in the back to become the fucktoy of the Unions.

As for UKIP not doing as well as they thought they would, I put that down to strategic voting. A lot of the Northern seats that would have got a UKIP seat (looking at you Rochdale and Rotherham!) stuck with Labour in an attempt to keep Cameron out.

 

[Fareal]

I think he may. Cameron just claimed three scalps tonight, Ed the Dead Duck, Cleggy and Farage are all indicating that they're resigning.

And everyone hates Ed because he stabbed his more politically astute brother in the back to become the fucktoy of the Unions.

As for UKIP not doing as well as they thought they would, I put that down to strategic voting. A lot of the Northern seats that would have got a UKIP seat (looking at you Rochdale and Rotherham!) stuck with Labour in an attempt to keep Cameron out.

Hahahhaa did you jsut see Farage saying he's resigning but will probably run for leader again after the summer? Lying cunt

 

[Dudeofteenage]

I don't really think anybody cares that Ed "stabbed his brother in the back" any more than they care that he once ate a bacon sandwich awkwardly. It's amusing to see conservative commentators who had long dossiers about how crap Dave was back in 2010 suddenly signing his praises to the roof as the King over the Water. Doubtless if Dave had won we'd have heard about how he stomped on his hapless, more politically astute younger brother, and everybody hates him for that. It's not like the Labour leadership was Dave's by some kind of divine right. Having said that obviously the electorate didn't respond to him. The question is, who's gonna be leader now? Diane Abbott?

It will be interesting to see whether the SNP's electoral dominance is a hangover from the referendum that will slowly fade, or a new established fact of British electoral politics.

And of course, the big loser... the pollsters. Even internet darling Nate Silver fucked it up. It's easy to start picking apart polling methodologies but it's also important to remember that the same methodologies were used five years ago and they were extremely accurate. Have British elections changed so much in five years?

I found myself wondering this morning what will happen to Boris. His plan A was obviously to replace Cameron after an electoral loss. Now he's going to be looking for a hefty Cabinet post. I'm guessing Foreign Secretary since he likes to think of himself as a cosmopolitan and the job's vacant with Hague retiring. And it would put him in prime position to replace Cameron if he retires in 2018 or 2019.

 

[CWCissey]

I don't really think anybody cares that Ed "stabbed his brother in the back" any more than they care that he once ate a bacon sandwich awkwardly. It's amusing to see conservative commentators who had long dossiers about how crap Dave was back in 2010 suddenly signing his praises to the roof as the King over the Water. Doubtless if Dave had won we'd have heard about how he stomped on his hapless, more politically astute younger brother, and everybody hates him for that. It's not like the Labour leadership was Dave's by some kind of divine right. Having said that obviously the electorate didn't respond to him. The question is, who's gonna be leader now? Diane Abbott?

It will be interesting to see whether the SNP's electoral dominance is a hangover from the referendum that will slowly fade, or a new established fact of British electoral politics.

And of course, the big loser... the pollsters. Even internet darling Nate Silver fucked it up. It's easy to start picking apart polling methodologies but it's also important to remember that the same methodologies were used five years ago and they were extremely accurate. Have British elections changed so much in five years?

I found myself wondering this morning what will happen to Boris. His plan A was obviously to replace Cameron after an electoral loss. Now he's going to be looking for a hefty Cabinet post. I'm guessing Foreign Secretary since he likes to think of himself as a cosmopolitan and the job's vacant with Hague retiring. And it would put him in prime position to replace Cameron if he retires in 2018 or 2019.

Well people liked David more than Ed, he was an acceptable amount of geeky. I think he'll come back and get the leadership position myself. But Dianne Abbott is a good (yet really fucking scary) option for a betting man.

I think the SNP will stick about, the referendum really smashed Scotland's opinion that Labour fights for them, their campaign was that disastrous.

Boris is obviously going to be in the Cabinet, he's too well loved not to be, I'm wondering if he's in line for Deputy, it'll either be him or Theresa May, and I'd rather have Boris in the wings to be fair.