UK General Election

[Dudeofteenage]

So, Ed Milliband is gonna be the next PM. I'm calling it now.

 

[Vitriol]

I admit I don't understand exactly what is causing the SNP's surge in support right now, but I think it's clear that the SNP are going to be the dominant force in Scotland in national elections for the immediate future, regardless of who's in government.

There are a few things im hearing from people up here: 1 is that labour have lost touch and are perceived to be more interested in their own interests than that of Scotland whereas the snp after two terms in gov are viewed as quite successful.

2. There is a perception that london has become unfairly advantaged and that we are increasingly governed according to what is best for the capital. Hs2 and the 2012 olympics were not at all popular up here. Labour have become associated with the Islington crowd and a londoncentric view. The snp by contrast are only interested in what is good for scotland (or so they claim)

Finally there is the simple numbers: Scotland is split between a unionist and a seperatist bloc-55/45 the unionist block is split between 3 parties (fptp means Scotland does have thousands of conservative and lib dem voters whose votes are ignored. The 45% on the other side is largely owned by the snp with tiny slices going to the greens and far left. So despite probly only having 40%ish of the vote the snp will have more than anyone else and in fptp be able to win seats.

We actually already have a uk general election thread: https://kiwifarms.net/threads/uk-general-elections-7th-may-2015.8146/

Perhaps @Surtur could merge them for us?

 

[Dudeofteenage]

There are a few things im hearing from people up here:

OK, well those are all factors I was broadly aware of. What I find a little more confusing is why the SNP's membership has surged since last year's election. None of what you've mentioned has changed since then, so why are people flocking to join and vote for the SNP? Are people getting even more tired of Labour? If so, why? What did Labour do in the last six months to suddenly turn off Scottish people even more (bearing in mind that many of them were already well turned off Labour). If the only information I had was the poll numbers I'd presume that Ed Milliband shot one of the Proclaimers or something.

 

[Vitriol]

OK, well those are all factors I was broadly aware of. What I find a little more confusing is why the SNP's membership has surged since last year's election. None of what you've mentioned has changed since then, so why are people flocking to join and vote for the SNP? Are people getting even more tired of Labour? If so, why? What did Labour do in the last six months to suddenly turn off Scottish people even more (bearing in mind that many of them were already well turned off Labour). If the only information I had was the poll numbers I'd presume that Ed Milliband shot one of the Proclaimers or something.

The political culture changed with the referendum- people engaged in a way ive never seen before. Everywhere I went I would here people discussing independence. The usual voter apathy was gone, it was quite something. The snp managed to hold onto a portion of those that were re-engaged during the referendum process. I think a big part of why the snp managed this and labour failed was that the independence case was very much selling a dream (or a delusion depending on perspective) whereas the union side was more economic. Its easy to rally people to a dream and fairly hard to maintain enthusiasm for fiscal responsibility! Labour sharing a platform with the Orange order and the conservatives also went down really badly with a lot of their support. especially in Glasgow.

Its not Milliband that's the problem but scottish labour leader Murphy. he is and was widely despised- the portrayal of him in the media during the referendum campaign did not reflect how he was being viewed by the public- while the rest of the country was having a serious discussion he was touring round with a host of london journalists (also distrusted) and english labour party activists (labour ran out of scots) , standing on his irn bru box and shouting at pensioners. It didnt go down well being viewed as overly theatrical, hyperbolic and attention seeking and kind of bullying aswell. He kept refusing debates with actual snp types which also didnt go down well nor did the former Scottish labour leader quitting about being run as a branch office. Murphy is also widely remembered as being a) an unapologetic blairite and iraq war apologist b) having spent 9 years at strathclyde without getting a degree then voting in tuition fees, c) Unrepentent after claiming a massive amount of expenses and lastly d) he is seen as pandering to his jewish constituents over israel- most of the rest of Scotland favours Palestine. He is not a popular man! He also epitomises the general problem scottish labour have of attacking the snp over everything rather than put forward policies of their own and refusing to awknowledge that they may have made any mistakes. In the last holyrood parliament labour voted against a measure to stop the bedroom tax in scotland while voting against the same tax in westminster, and when the snp accepted one of their policies ( I forget which) they abandoned it rather than agree with the snp on anything. It's been bizarre to watch.

I do agree with you though, Milliband is on course for no.10 though its going to be close, and the polls were wrong on wider margins in 1992.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

Its not Milliband that's the problem but scottish labour leader Murphy. he is and was widely despised- the portrayal of him in the media during the referendum campaign did not reflect how he was being viewed by the public-

So you think Scottish Labour would do better under a different leader?

 

[Vitriol]

So you think Scottish Labour would do better under a different leader?

Not now, the ship has sailed. But immediately after the referendum when Salmond resigned he earned a lot of peoples respect; by contrast labour went into meltdown with its leader quitting and throwing a huge tantrum over 'being run like a branch office' and then the disaster that is Murphy put in her place. If a) the change in leader had been smoother and b) a more popular leader had been chosen then they might have been able to contest with the snp for the large numbers of newly engaging voters. As it was while the snp were out drumming up new membership from the yes crowd labour were busy fighting each other.

Scottish labour is in a hard place- its politicians are all very much new labour, as they have to be for the labour party to win votes elsewhere in the uk, but the scottish electorate is still old labour. Whatever it was in the culture that kept the electorate with this Old labour view through the thatcher years did the same through blair and brown. Just like the conservatives in the 70's and 80's the current labour party finds it cannot compete with the snp on the left- which is where all the votes are in scotland. Unlike the conservatives it cannot just focus on the right and right off scotland as the conservatives already have that ground. Unable to come up with policies of their own that would win over the electorate here (as it would risk losing swing seat votes down south) SLab are forced to attack the snp instead. So while the SNP are out saying 'yes we can' SL are stuck with 'no we can't' which of course attracts far fewer votes.

They really needed a Donald Dewar- someone who could connect with the electorate and earn their respect, instead they put in a man on the furthest right section of the party to lead in its most leftwing electorate. If Brown had taken over the leadership this likely wouldn't have happened, he was never as unpopular in Scotland as he was in England and comfortably won the 2010 election up here. People are used to seeing the media get Scotland wrong all the time so often were more sympathetic to Brown, seeing him as doing the best he could in a difficult situation with a hostile media. He also won a lot of respect for his speeches in the referendum campaign. I'm, aware brown is very much newlabour aswell but he is a far more capable politician than Murphy and consequently far more popular!

 

[Dudeofteenage]

Apparently they basically offered it to Brown on a platter but he wasn't interested. I think he's pretty thoroughly burned out on the day-to-day of political leadership - he can dip in on an issue he feels strongly about (like unionism) but the idea of having an ongoing job turns him off.

But broadly, if Brown is popular despite being at the absolute heart of New Labour, I don't think you can really claim that Murphy's New Labour credentials, which are far weaker, are damning him. Frankly I think your perspective is kind of coloured by your nationalism. There is frankly a damned-if-they-do, damned-if-they-don't approach here - a leader who tries to distinguish Labour from the nationalists would be seen as fighting against the tide, while one who tried to outflank the nationalists on the left would be seen as indulging as "me-tooism". It's telling that you criticise the prior leader's fightback against Labour's central office as a "huge tantrum". Isn't Scottish Labour developing a distinctive Scottish identity, at odds with the mother party if need be, what we want to see?

Scottish Labour leader is a shitty job to have at this point, because the tide is going out on the party for reasons that are basically beyond their control. The best they can do is try to hold it together and control the damage, which is not a compelling narrative but at the same time may be something the party is grateful for ten, twenty or even thirty years down the track. I actually think Murphy was the right choice (given that Brown wasn't interested). None of the alternative candidates were any better. It's true that his leadership hasn't reaped massive electoral dividends, but it would be very shortsighted to blame Scottish Labour's current crisis purely on Murphy's leadership.

 

[Vitriol]

Lamont went straight to the Daily Record with her resignation and criticised the party leadership describing them as 'dinosaurs' among other things. That to me is a tantrum. Scottish labour insisted throughout the referendum that they were not being interfered with by the central party and then a month later Lamont quits because the central party was too limiting.

Brown is almost popular despite being new labour rather than for being the heart of it. His popularity was personality based. Murphy has rubbed people the wrong way plus is mired in scandals from the past decade- (tuition fees, iraq and expenses). Brown gets off from these because people up here blame Blair (which i dont really think makes sense but hey politics). Murphy was a student for nine years without graduating then backed the introduction of fees under Blair, claimed a ridiculous amount in expenses and is a member of a right wing think tank. Either Neil Findlay or Sarah Boyack would have been a better choice in my opinion- neither of them had alienated yes voters in the referendum and both have less baggage than Murphy.

I disagree with you about me-tooism, a great many people distrust the snp as it has an ultimate agenda of independence. If someone were to offer the same policies minus the risk of independence they would gain from it- dishing the whigs has long been an effective tool in British politics.

It would make sense for Scottish labour to develop its own personality but bearing in mind Lamount and McLeish have both claimed that as leaders they were run by the main party and that Murphy was the pick of that party and has never been an msp I think it doubtful that he is going to establish a separate political culture in Scottish Labour.

I agree the job is a poisoned chalice but i think it only got that way because they chose to fight each other rather than consolidate after the election. It was after Lamonts resignation in mid october that snp membership began to skyrocket.


I'll probably vote snp this time but I was a labour voter previously and i promise i dont come across as a nationalist in rl!

In any case looking at the bigger picture this election has become too close to call- I noticed this mornings polls have a swing back to the conservatives.

 

[Picklechu]

POLITICO recently launched a European version. They've had some pretty decent articles on the election, although this has probably been my favorite so far.

 

[CWCissey]

What I'm calling is Tories get more seats, but Labour gets in off the back of an SNP coalition/formal deal. Jockestan will boss England about, while Ed flounders and the ensuing protests/riots will make global news.

 

[Caddchef]

I live in a area that is completely dominated with UKIP propaganda that also happens to be an EDL stomping ground, so I feel riiiiight at home as a huge leftie! My vote's most definitely going Labour, but my faith in Milliband as a leader isn't the strongest really. I see him as more of an academic and not someone with enough bite to lead the country, like Prescott (despite all the bad press, I thought he was great) for example. I voted Lib Dem last year and, along with many like me, boy did I feel silly afterwards.

Both the Tories and UKIP can sit and swivel.

Rotherham?

 

[CWCissey]

Rotherham?

Rochdale?

 

[Caddchef]

Rochdale?

Ah, by the sounds of it you'd feel very much at home in Rotherham and i in Rochdale, politically at least.

 

[CWCissey]

Ah, by the sounds of it you'd feel very much at home in Rotherham and i in Rochdale, politically at least.

Me? Why?

 

[GV 002]

Rotherham?

Nah, Bournemouth!

 

[Dudeofteenage]

What I'm calling is Tories get more seats, but Labour gets in off the back of an SNP coalition/formal deal. Jockestan will boss England about, while Ed flounders and the ensuing protests/riots will make global news.

Yeah, I'm sure those disenfranchised urban youth are going to riot because they think that Scottish MPs shouldn't vote on English laws.

Anyway, I think this scenario is most likely. Some of the last minute polls think they've detected a micro surge for Labour, but I'm sceptical - this is all well within the margin of error so it's likely to just be noise.

I think we'll get a picture of what to expect around 1AM GMT when Nuneaton declares. It's a seat held by the Tories with a small majority that is on Labour's hit list. It's these kinds of seats that are likely to determine the overall balance between Labour and the Tories. If Labour wins Nuneaton handily, maybe this last minute micro surge is a real thing. If they lose, perhaps Cameron will have the luxury of departing Number 10 on his own schedule after all.

 

[Laevateinn]

While I'm not going to say who I voted for, I will say that I do indeed believe there is going to be a hung parliament. I've been keeping a close eye on things in parliament and I certainly don't see any major party actually winning the overall vote at the moment.

So, Ed Milliband is gonna be the next PM. I'm calling it now.

I wouldn't be surprised if this happens either - though I'm not sure how Miliband would handle being PM at all. I mean, one of my biggest concerns is that even though most of the people in the parties have been around for a while, I can't help but wonder if they actually have enough experience to be able to support a government - especially the likes of Miliband. No offence, I know you guys won't flip out like Tumblrinas would, but I still have to choose my words very carefully.

Still, it'll be interesting to see what happens, eh?

 

[Dudeofteenage]

I wouldn't be surprised if this happens either - though I'm not sure how Miliband would handle being PM at all. I mean, one of my biggest concerns is that even though most of the people in the parties have been around for a while, I can't help but wonder if they actually have enough experience to be able to support a government - especially the likes of Miliband.

Not sure what you're getting at 2bh? Miliband spent three years in Cabinet, two in a fairly important position. That's more experience than David Cameron had before he became PM. If anything he might have too much experience with government - he's spent almost his entire professional career working as an advisor or an MP. Although, again, you could say the same about Cameron.

 

[Laevateinn]

Not sure what you're getting at 2bh? Miliband spent three years in Cabinet, two in a fairly important position. That's more experience than David Cameron had before he became PM. If anything he might have too much experience with government - he's spent almost his entire professional career working as an advisor or an MP. Although, again, you could say the same about Cameron.

I suppose what I'm trying to say is that it's more his attitude? The same applies to other candidates as well, but there seems to be a lack of... well... polite respect for each other in the House of Commons (as I see it). I know this is the modern era, but I really don't feel that people in government are acting as they should, I guess? I'm sorry if I still haven't made it clear enough - I'm not quite sure how to express it in a way that won't cause a fight in this topic...

 

[Dudeofteenage]

I suppose what I'm trying to say is that it's more his attitude? The same applies to other candidates as well, but there seems to be a lack of... well... polite respect for each other in the House of Commons (as I see it). I know this is the modern era, but I really don't feel that people in government are acting as they should, I guess? I'm sorry if I still haven't made it clear enough - I'm not quite sure how to express it in a way that won't cause a fight in this topic...

Oh, right. Well, personally, I don't care about that. People don't vote Labour so they get a candidate who'll be nice to the Tories, and vice versa. Politicians have been disrespecting each other since the the Glorious Revolution. If they were all nice and friendly and politely respectful it might make them better dinner party guests but it won't make them better policy-makers.