Trump's Tricky 2024 Economic Policy

[LilypaCastsUpper]

I think this topic is important but I don't know where it belongs, so I made a thread. Some of the main platforms of President Trump's 2024 Economic Policy are as follows:

• Tariffs/Protectionism
• Re-industrialize the U.S.
• Remove a source of cheap labor (deporting undocumented immigrants)
• stop/lower inflation
• Keep the U.S. Dollar as World Reserve Currency

IMO this policy is physically impossible due to something called "Triffin's Dilemma." I posted about what that is here: https://kiwifarms.st/threads/trump-policy-forecast-thread.204121/#post-19814341

Spoiler: Copy Paste of Linked Post

Trump says he wants to re-industrialize but also wants to maintain position as the world reserve currency. This is inherently contradictory as something described as "Triffin's Dilemma." -> "the country whose currency is the global reserve currency, that foreign nations wish to hold as foreign exchange (FX) reserves, must be willing to supply the world with an extra supply of its currency in order to fulfill world demand for these FX reserves, leading to a trade deficit.[1]"

>A weak dollar is needed to re-industrialize
>Devaluing the dollar makes imports more expensive
>Tariffs cause inflation
>Weak dollar discourages other countries from holding dollars

Basically when you are the WRC you have to export your inflation; trying to re-industrialize will cause it to come home to roost (in the form of hyper-inflation). If you can just print money and force other countries to accept your currency for their goods (from the barrel of a gun), that's what's gonna happen.

{I'm just a layman so any addendum/corrections are welcome.}

I think Mr. Trump's policy is incoherent. It's like trying to be a pro skateboarder and a pro sumo wrestler at the same time, it can't happen. I don't know if he's unaware, or is just hoping most people won't notice, but either way it's not going to end well.

 

[KittyGremlin]

I don't hugely hate Trump as a person but I have to agree.

 

[Rei is Shit.]

The whole US economy is fucked no matter what, Trump is just the fall guy.

 

[Ginger & Bread = Mischief]

Kinda spooky if you're European.

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

Finally, a thread about economics! Nevermind, it's about concepts that were wrong even 400 years ago when they were thought up
"Trade deficit"s are meaningless.
Consider the trade deficit that you as a person have with your local supermarket. Has it impacted you in some way?

 

[LilypaCastsUpper]

Finally, a thread about economics! Nevermind, it's about concepts that were wrong even 400 years ago when they were thought up
"Trade deficit"s are meaningless.
Consider the trade deficit that you as a person have with your local supermarket. Has it impacted you in some way?

What if the supermarket eventually accepts only Chinese Yuan and not U.S. Dollars? Then it's going to impact me.

and:

If trade deficits don't matter, why is Trump applying Tariffs and talking of re-industrializing? Please explain. Doing it for jobs is not going to work because Corporations are always going to outsource for the cheapest possible labor internationally. This is the paradox.

edit: typo

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

What if the supermarket eventually accepts only Chinese Yuan and not U.S. Dollars? Then it's going to impact me.

and:

If trade deficits don't matter, why is Trump applying Tariffs and talking of re-industrializing? Please explain.

If the supermarket only accepts yuan and not USD, that just adds one extra step of buying yuan with your USD.

Trump is applying tariffs because the Republicans are consistently dumb and retarded when it comes to economic protectionism
It is a policy of shooting yourself in the food

Re-industrializing, depends on the concrete circumstances
You can make the argument that a strengthening of domestic industry is necessary when international trade breaks down, such as through war and bad policy of other countries

Please always keep in mind that bad economics is good politics
As in, economics is about recognizing that there are laws and natural limits that need to be taken into account and that you can't just solve problems through willpower or decree, and politics is about ignoring the lessons of economics

 

[LilypaCastsUpper]

that just adds one extra step of buying yuan with your USD.

That step could be very costly depending on the future circumstances.

Please always keep in mind that bad economics is good politics
As in, economics is about recognizing that there are laws and natural limits that need to be taken into account and that you can't just solve problems through willpower or decree, and politics is about ignoring the lessons of economics

This is the mindset that caused the economic decline of the U.S. in the last 50 years.

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

This is the mindset that caused the economic decline of the U.S. in the last 50 years.

You know what had an increase in the last 50 years? The amount of regulations, the power of the state, the tax rates, the degree of state intervention and control...

 

[Tetra]

I don't even need to really make a political or economical argument for this, since people who follow "experts" inherently advocates for the status quo, a status quo most agree isn't working.
Robert Triffin can join a long list of economists that were wrong.

I'll just say: If the rules you followed brought you here, then what good was the rules?

 

[JohnnyG]

What if the supermarket eventually accepts only Chinese Yuan and not U.S. Dollars? Then it's going to impact me.

That just turns the argument into: "You have to maintain reserve currency status by forever weakening your currency and flooding the world with it, because if you don't, you might not maintain reserve currency status."

If trade deficits don't matter, why is Trump applying Tariffs and talking of re-industrializing?

There's the strategic value of not being reliant on others and potential enemies whenever a disaster, conflict, or downturn happens...the economist's perfectly optimized "competitive advantage" world also means the most fragile supply chains possible.

There's also the value of having actual productive jobs here that support a healthy working & middle class, which obviously a lot of ((economists)), ((bankers)), and ((international financiers)) oppose.

I don't even need to really make a political or economical argument for this, since people who follow "experts" inherently advocates for the status quo, a status quo most agree isn't working.
Robert Triffin can join a long list of economists that were wrong.

Bingo. So much of these "rules" boil down to Kafka traps: "Sure inflation is bad, but the only alternative will make it way worse, we promise, don't bother trying. Also we were never a prosperous nation before we gutted industry in a misguided attempt to export ((democracy))."

As someone living a reasonably comfortable life, I would happily trade unlimited overnight access to plastic Amazon-Walmart crap for domestic jobs that make more families independent long-term. And I can both empathize with people struggling to get by AND recognize that most of them have more chintzy imported junk than they need, so if the 9.99 crap goes to 12.99, we'll do fine with less of it.

 

[LilypaCastsUpper]

You know what had an increase in the last 50 years? The amount of regulations, the power of the state, the tax rates

After World War II and Europe was destroyed, the Bretton Woods agreement was signed and the U.S. asserted its military and economic dominance over the world. These circumstances have changed. Europe is rebuilt. China and Russia are no longer backwards poor countries. Our industry was hallowed because the corporations wanted cheaper labor abroad. Mr. Trump's policy requires a supreme denial of these material facts (Kamala was no better BTW).

This would be like if you won a pro bodybuilding competition at 30 years old because you were the only one who had access to steroids and HGH. Now you are 60 years old instead of 30 and your joints are all blown out, and now everyone has access to steroids and HGH. It's time to find a new career and new way to survive, doubling down on old habits and patterns is not gonna work. I don't believe in magic.

advocates for the status quo, a status quo most agree isn't working. -- Robert Triffin can join a long list of economists that were wrong

Just because your elephant hunt in the Berkshire mountains was a fail, doesn't mean going on an elephant hunt in the Arizona desert is a good idea; and don't forget to go hunting specifically on Tuesday, because Tuesday weighs more than other days of the week. It's incoherence. - And BTW Triffin is proven right. His goal is to analyze, not to convince everyone to do what he says to become economically prosperous. His analysis explains our current economic conditions and how they have transpired since the Bretton Woods agreement.

The whole US economy is fucked no matter what, Trump is just the fall guy.

Then I think we should demand a coherent damage-control grey pill. Not a black pill painted rainbows.

There's also the value of having actual productive jobs here that support a healthy working & middle class --- There's the strategic value of not being reliant on others and potential enemies

Ok that sounds good, but you are abstracting things out of context of the totality. You can't do this while remaining the world reserve currency status. Corporations have no incentive to invest here when it's more profitable abroad, and it will always be more profitable abroad if we are the reserve world currency. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

That just turns the argument into: "You have to maintain reserve currency status by forever weakening your currency and flooding the world with it, because if you don't, you might not maintain reserve currency status."

Weakening the dollar will hasten the rest of the world to de-dollarize and flee to other currencies, which will cause domestic inflation (or hyper-inflation). But yea, I think you are maybe getting it. Maybe no single country should have the world reserve currency status because it causes a bunch of damn problems, which we are experiencing right now. Maybe there should be a new system.

 

[Tetra]

Just because your elephant hunt in the Berkshire mountains was a fail, doesn't mean going on an elephant hunt in the Arizona desert is a good idea

How do you know it's not a good idea? You're having a lot of set beliefs that you take for granted that many of us just flat out don't agree with. You're asking us to keep hunting in the berkshire mountains after all. Or worse, keep taking advice from the person who told us to hunt in the berkshire mountain.

BTW Triffin is proven right. His goal is to analyze, not to convince everyone to do what he says to become economically prosperous. His analysis explains our current economic conditions and how they have transpired since the Bretton Woods agreement.

>If you follow me this will happen
>people follow him
>this happens

Woah hes was right everything he said would happen.

Hey If I give you $5 I'll be $5 poorer and you'll be $5 richer
Everything I said so far happened, so if you give me $10, you'll be $100 richer

You can't do this while remaining the world reserve currency status. Corporations have no incentive to invest here when it's more profitable abroad, and it will always be more profitable abroad if we are the reserve world currency. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Meaningless statements. you can't do x, you can't do y. You don't know any of this until we try.

Best of all is that these retarded economists talking points are always abstract. Heres something that may throw a wrench in this wheel, a lot of countries are extremely unstable and prone to revolution or war, America for better or worse has remained relatively stable for a very long time, whereas Egypt had a revolution as recently as 2011. Companies miscalculate all the time and are not perfect agents, you want an incentive? Safety and tariff free production.

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

You don't know any of this until we try.

That's where you are making the fatal error

Proper economics is a hard science discipline like physics
There are laws and dynamics that are always valid at all times, and every attempt to go against them will come crashing down on you
With proper economic theory, you can make certain judgment calls on whether a proposed policy will lead to its intended result
For instance, the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises gave a theoretical explanation of why socialism cannot possibly achieve the results it proclaims - and he did it in 1922, before millions of people were killed in socialist experiments, and the arguments he made have not been refuted to this day

 

[Tetra]

Proper economics is a hard science discipline like physics

Economics is not, and will never be a hard science.

edit, anyway I've said what I wanted to say about all of this.

 

[LilypaCastsUpper]

Meaningless statements. you can't do x, you can't do y. You don't know any of this until we try.

Try sitting in a chair and also burn it for heat it at the same time. Tell me how it goes.

 

[LilypaCastsUpper]

That's where you are making the fatal error

Proper economics is a hard science discipline like physics
There are laws and dynamics that are always valid at all times, and every attempt to go against them will come crashing down on you
With proper economic theory, you can make certain judgment calls on whether a proposed policy will lead to its intended result
For instance, the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises gave a theoretical explanation of why socialism cannot possibly achieve the results it proclaims - and he did it in 1922, before millions of people were killed in socialist experiments, and the arguments he made have not been refuted to this day

[sorry for the double post]
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but as far as I know, followers of the Austrian School like Ron Paul also think the U.S. as World Reserve Currency system is problematic.

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

[sorry for the double post]
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but as far as I know, followers of the Austrian School like Ron Paul also think the U.S. as World Reserve Currency is problematic.

The Austrian School take is that fiat currency and legal tender laws are always bad, and the US Dollar is a fiat currency.
For the case of fiat currency, you want as many currencies as possible, as little centralization as possible.
The opposite is the case if the money is a market money, in that case there are pretty much only upsides to a global currency (e.g. a global gold currency)

 

[Fapcop]

What everyone seems to forget, is that the USD as a reserve currency is over and done with already.

That process have started already and is irreversible. Now the good news is that it’s a slow process that can be delayed and the USD will never be totally irrelevant. See the Dmark/Euro or Pound that isn’t a real reserve currency anymore, but still plays a role in trade.

One of the ways the USD can remain relevant for longer, is by reindustrializing.

 

[Yamaha YM2612]

There's the strategic value of not being reliant on others and potential enemies whenever a disaster, conflict, or downturn happens...the economist's perfectly optimized "competitive advantage" world also means the most fragile supply chains possible.

There's also the value of having actual productive jobs here that support a healthy working & middle class, which obviously a lot of ((economists)), ((bankers)), and ((international financiers)) oppose.

Nailed it

As usual, trumps critics are playing tiddlywinks while Trump is playing chess