At best it'll contribute to a few .% points. The vast majority of W10 systems will stay on W10, some will slowly move to W11, and if anyone's gonna be jumping off of the MS ship, it's going to be either Apple or mobile. The only thing Steve knows about Linux is that it's not Windows and that he hates Windows. So does most of his audience and the people that watch that video. You don't want these sorts of people using Linux just to see a market share percentage go up. Besides, a lot of these refurbs meet the criteria for Windows 11 and come with OEM licenses for it so if you don't have a Canonical representative forcing Ubuntu down people's throats like a certain Canonical employee then they will be running Windows 11 just fine, so W10 EOL won't affect those machines. Not to mention that millions of machines will stay on W10 and the drop-off will be even slower than with 7 or XP due to how close 10 and 11 are to each other.
Remember: the only reality where Linux takes over Windows in the StatCounter market share is the one where you are outright banned from using Windows. No matter how shit Windows gets, it won't lose market share the way you think it will. Plus, the market share is in no way a thing anyone should ever care. It's in no way a sign of which OS is "better" (Makitas and Milwaukees put holes in walls the same way) It's just anecdotal trivia. Android still thwarts desktop on those statistics and they never account whether or not people are moving away from desktops towards smartphones. It's all e-peen measuring contest bullshit.