War Syrian rebels say they control the south and are approaching Damascus - Opposition forces say they seized control over Sanamayn and Quneitra, as Assad's troops withdraw to defend Homs and the capital

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An anti-government fighter gestures from inside a vehicle patrolling the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on 6 December 2024 (AFP)

Syrian rebels said they have secured most of the country's south and have started encircling the capital after capturing Sanamayn, a town just 20km from the southern entrance of Damascus.

Across Syria, President Bashar al-Assad's forces have abandoned towns and cities they fought for years to control.

On Friday, Syrian soldiers withdrew from areas of the southern provinces of Daraa and Sweida, with their positions replaced by opposition forces that have risen up since rebels in the north began their shock offensive last week.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based activist group monitoring the war, said on Friday evening that local factions had captured more than 90 percent of Daraa.

In the neighbouring Sweida province, meanwhile, local fighters overtook several checkpoints, prompting senior officials, including the governor and police chief, to vacate their offices, according to local media.

Rebels now say they control Quneitra, a southern province on the border with Israel and the occupied Golan Heights, and Sanamayn, a town on the main highway from Damascus to Jordan.

Rebel forces have also taken control of various areas of Damascus' southern suburbs, including Daraya and Moamadhia. This marked the first time opposition forces had reached the outskirts of the Syrian capital since 2018, when government troops recaptured the area after years of siege.

The Syrian Observatory said government forces have withdrawn from several other areas in the Damascus countryside, including Jermana, Qatana, Artouz, al-Kiswah and sites near al-Mazzeh military airbase and al-Dumayr.

In al-Mazzeh, a resident told Middle East Eye that buses were seen bringing people out of the military airbase.

From al-Midan, a Damascene neighbourhood, another source said: "All the guards are scattered and anxious and there so many police cars are presently stuck in heavy standstill traffic. Its so crowded they're running like ants."

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In Jermana, nearly 10km from the capital's centre, protesters toppled a statue of Assad's late father Hafez in the main square while chanting anti-government slogans, the Observatory reported.

Assad remains in Damascus, Syria's state news agency said.

The Syrian defence ministry denied that the army had fled positions near the capital, saying that government forces are present in all areas of the Damascus countryside.

In eastern Syria, however, around 2,000 Syrian troops are reported to have crossed the border into Iraq and sought refuge, Turki al-Mahlawi, the mayor of al-Qaim border town said.

The soldiers were reportedly marooned in the east and unable to safely join up with the Syrian government forces in Homs.

Advancing on Homs​

Last week, rebel groups led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a shock offensive on Assad's forces in the north, capturing the major cities of Aleppo and Hama in a matter of days. Now they are staging an offensive on Homs, Syria's third-largest city.

On Saturday afternoon, Syrian rebels said they entered Homs from the north and east. A Syrian rebel commander, Hassan Abdul Ghany, said fighters had overrun an army camp and a string of villages around the city of Homs.

In the eastern countryside of Homs, rebels seized Palmyra, an oasis town also known as Tadmur.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on Friday took control of eastern Deir Ezzor city and the key Abu Kamal border crossing with Iraq after Assad's troops withdrew to be repositioned around Homs, Damascus and the ruling family's coastal heartland.

The Syrian military has meanwhile concentrated its efforts on defending the key central city of Homs, with air strikes targeting rebel positions and reinforcements arriving to fortify positions around the city, according to state media.

The military also said it was redeploying and repositioning troops in Daraa, the cradle of the 2011 uprising against Assad's rule, and Sweida.

"Damascus awaits you," said HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in a statement addressed to rebel fighters on Telegram, using his real name instead of his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.

Sharaa also called on rebels to leave captured cities to local police forces to maintain security and focus on new fronts.

Political dialogue​

In Doha, Iran, Russia and the rebels' main foreign supporter, Turkey, discussed the crisis. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said they had agreed there should be an immediate end to the fighting.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said after the meeting with Lavrov and Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan that the parties agreed on the initiation of "political dialogue between the Syrian government and the legitimate opposition groups".

The United Nations special envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, also called for "the start of a process that leads to the realisation of the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people". Speaking in Gaziantep, a southern Turkish city that hosts thousands of Syrian refugees, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed the need to maintain Syria's territorial integrity.

"There is now a new reality in Syria, politically and diplomatically," Erdogan said.

US President-elect Donald Trump meanwhile said the US should not be involved in the conflict and should "let it play out".

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Who will win this epic climatic struggle that we have been waiting for over a decade to see the conclusion to? Will it be the government or its opposition? Will the "who must go" meme go out of style?
 
That only happens because its allowed to happen. Been wars in that part of the world forever, yet you didn't see Europe getting flooded until recently.
The Mediterranean countries, Turkey, and Russia all want to extract their pound of flesh in concessions by allowing hordes of invaders to 'transit' through their countries.
 
I, for one, can't wait for another million++ subhumans to flood Europe.

That only happens because its allowed to happen. Been wars in that part of the world forever, yet you didn't see Europe getting flooded until recently.

Like I said before, white women voted for this.
Don't help them, let them get "enriched".

If assad does lose and the moderate terrorists take control, it's gonna be comical when they and their Turkish masters start to try and genocide the kurds.
 
So what does this mean? If Assad is taken out is this something that was astroturfed by the US? By Iran? Is the country gonna be taken over by Islamic fundamentalists like the Taliban?
 
Who will win this epic climatic struggle that we have been waiting for over a decade to see the conclusion to? Will it be the government or its opposition? Will the "who must go" meme go out of style?
Looks like it's going to be like Iraq after Saddam was ousted.
20 more years of sand nigger wars.
Millions more muslims for Europe.
 
LMAO Russia is a absolutely fucking worthless ally, get ready to lose your only overseas naval base ziggers, gonna be alot hard for them to supply forces in Africa without it.
 
So what does this mean? If Assad is taken out is this something that was astroturfed by the US? By Iran? Is the country gonna be taken over by Islamic fundamentalists like the Taliban?
More likely Turkey, actually. Sort of. Okay, so for a more effortposty explanation that's going to take a while...

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This is a map of the battle lines in Syria from this morning. (It's already outdated, rebels & rebel supporters have been taking celebratory videos & photos of themselves inside the capital of Damascus, but shit's moved extremely quickly and I digress.) The main rebel factions are the guys in light green, white, aqua, purple and yellow. (Assad is red, black lines indicate ISIS presence/a power vacuum left by Assad's army withdrawing).

White: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allies. The main Islamist coalition. HTS is 'former' al-Qaeda in Syria (deadnames: Jabhat al-Nusra, Jaish al-Fatah). Their leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, is a longtime AQ (and briefly ISIS) emir who was once a prisoner in America's infamous Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and has been fighting in this war since the very beginning, all the way back in 2011. Al-Jolani now claims to have done a face turn, has surprised outside observers by not being headchoppy towards Christians and other religious minorities in his path (in turn they've surrendered to him via negotiations in many places where before they would've fought to the death), and has apparently put in some effort to make his personal emirate in Idlib livable for the people. He's one cunning & slippery bastard to have come this far, he has also buckbroken almost all of the non-ISIS Islamists (including more zealous AQ elements, who called themselves Hurras al-Din and have been destroyed in infighting with HTS) and they're now either HTS vassals or dead.

Light green: Syrian National Army (SNA). Turkish pawns, they're literally on Turkey's payroll. HTS was also helped by Turkey but not as much as these guys, who can't do anything without Turkish help (they have had to pause past offensives against the Kurds while waiting for Turkish air & artillery support). The SNA exists primarily to fight the Kurds in NE Syria and has been prioritizing them over fighting Assad's forces. They are formally allied with HTS and have helped a bit with the current offensive, but component SNA groups have fought HTS (and pretty much always lost) in the past. Ideologically most of them claim to be some variety of Islamist, but they're fundamentally just mercs in Turkish employ at this stage.

Turkey is speculated to have greenlit the initial joint HTS-SNA offensive against Assad due to Assad not willing to give in to any of Erdogan's demands at past peace conferences, but nobody (including the rebels themselves) was expecting this much success. The offensive operation was originally titled 'Deterrence of Aggression' and the rebels' objective was to just push Assad's men back a bit from the Idlib-Aleppo border, not take Aleppo itself (much less blitz all over the rest of the country and toward the capital). Aleppo, Homs and Daraa all survived multi-year sieges in the past and had never before fallen into rebel hands, so there was no reason for anyone to assume that they'd be taken so quickly and easily.

Aqua: Revolutionary Commando Army in the southeastern desert. American pawns, until yesterday they were about 500 strong and basically did nothing for years except chill around the Al-Tanf base on the border with Jordan/Iraq. When the SAA (Assad's army) started imploding, they jumped into action and captured Palmyra to prevent it from being destroyed (even more) by ISIS and also swung hard to the west. They've moved unopposed through the empty eastern deserts and are now cutting highways & driving into neighborhoods north of Damascus. Ideologically they claim to be moderate and are controlled pretty tightly by Uncle Sam due to their small numbers/weakness up till now.

Purple: Southern Front/Southern Operations Room. Last known large-scale remnants of the original Free Syrian Army, which is to say, the actual moderate rebels from 2011. They weren't whackjob Islamists in the areas they used to administer, had a generally positive reputation and achieved success against both ISIS and Assad in the far south (they used to control the southern half of Daraa, a southern provincial capital and the city where the Syrian Revolution of 2011 started). They seemed to have been destroyed in 2018 when Assad + Hezbollah + Russia threw their full strength into the south and their constituent groups then started signing 'reconciliation' (surrender) agreements with Assad, but it turns out they were just biding their time underground and rose back from the dead in the last 4 days or so to rapidly overrun all of the southern provinces and attack Damascus from behind while everyone's eyes were on the HTS vs. Assad confrontation in Homs to the north. Ideologically they're actually moderate, they were formerly sponsored by the US & Jordan but all such aid was ended in 2017-18 so they've been on their own since, and it's to their credit that they managed to make such a comeback without outside aid (seriously, everyone thought these guys were dead & buried until this past week).

Yellow: Syrian Democratic Forces/Autonomous Administration of North & East Syria. An American-backed coalition of Kurds, Assyrian Christians and other minorities in the northeast of Syria. They claim to be fighting for autonomy rather than independence and were the USA's favored partner against ISIS in Syria. However, a lot of the Kurds involved are Communists or Communist sympathizers, specifically of the PKK - a Kurdish secessionist & commie group loathed by Turkey. Also doesn't help that a bunch of Western Antifaggot types formed a sort of international brigade to help them when the fight against ISIS was peaking, and after it was over they brought the war home (taking part in the 2020 Summer of Love & shit). Turkey really, really wants to wipe these guys off the map as a result and are using the SNA as a tool to do so (with indirect and sometimes direct aid from the Turkish military across the border). Interestingly, while the SNA is certainly aggressively hostile to them, HTS has not been and has generally stayed out of their way to focus on fighting Assad.

HTS is by far the strongest rebel faction, the one that started this avalanche ten days ago, and the one which will almost certainly form most of any new Syrian government. 'Moderating' from being literally al-Qaeda is not a high bar to clear, so don't expect HTS to establish a liberal democracy with guaranteed human rights for non-Muslims, queers, etc. and full cooperation with globohomo. (It mustn't be forgotten that Al-Jolani has spent almost his entire adult life fighting the US and that his nickname is a reference to the Golan Heights, held by Israel but regarded by Syria to still be its rightful territory - that's where his family came from.) Nobody else can hope to defeat them alone: SNA are the worst fighters out of the five above and can't do anything without Turkish help, Revolutionary Commandos are still tiny in number and barely tested in battle (although they have done well in the past 3 days or so), Southern Front only just came back from the dead and probably does not have the resources/organization to defeat HTS (it would be nice if they were the ones to take over instead of HTS but that's not realistic post-2018 ), SDF doesn't have the numbers or firepower (unless aided by USAF) either and has been handing areas like Aleppo's airport over to HTS to avoid conflict where necessary.

However. The other groups are strong enough to make Al-Jolani's life hell if he insists on being a stubborn jihadi retard to the end and impose a caliphate with no room for any of them at the table. Al-Jolani in turn has demonstrated that he is anything but a tard, if he were that he'd have died a long time ago; in just this campaign he's managed to avoid large-scale conflict with both the SDF and SNA despite their mutually exclusive agendas, and allied with the Southern Front to topple Assad. He's also certainly not failed to notice how Hezbollah fighting Israel with Hamas resulted in Israel crippling them, which gave him the window of opportunity to start this blitz in the first place. So a conservative Islamic dictatorship under HTS (with Southern Front elements moderating Al-Jolani's worst impulses and an autonomous region for the Kurds) that's at least smart enough to not attack everyone around it is not only almost likely, it is the best possible outcome for a Syria under Al-Jolani (the worse outcome being that he reveals he never actually stopped being AQ and will use Syria as a base for jihad against his neighbors). Something between Saudi Arabia and Jordan rather than the Taliban's Afghanistan basically, but with the added complexity of substantial armed religious & ethnic minorities that HTS can't afford to get rid of right now. At the very least, even that conservative dictatorship would be able to stop the bleeding and give everyone from Turkey westward an excuse to start deporting Syrian rapefugees back to Syria (where they can play ball under Al-Jolani's rules or he will put their heads on spikes as he's already done to the even more insane jihadis who couldn't play nice).

It is also possible that the factions can't agree on what to do in the day after Assad and start trying to kill each other. In fact the SDF and SNA are already fighting. However, in that case, because we're down to about five largely consolidated rebel groupings instead of the literal dozens of fractious & constantly feuding small groups in 2013-14, a Libya-style conflict is not likely. (Arguably Syria has already had its Libya phase between 2013 and 2020) Instead you'd have a more conventional, straightforward and probably actually quite quick war between the big rebel blocs. Just about everyone, even Al-Jolani, is war-weary at this point; the original Libyan Civil War that killed Gaddafi left about 30k dead and was over within a year, the Syrian Civil War has killed 600,000 and been going on for 13 years. Nobody, including HTS, has the will & resources to fight a long war either against themselves or an outside power like Israel any time soon, and will certainly fall apart if they try; Assad himself didn't despite having the biggest army & most resources on paper, and look what just happened to him now.

Speaking of which, as for how Assad fell in less than two weeks when he seemed to have all but won the civil war between 2020 and now, that will surely be studied in the years to come. But as far as I can tell it basically boiled down to him & the SAA (Syrian Arab Army, again this is the government army) getting extremely complacent, wasting all their time & energy on becoming a drug (especially captagon) cartel, and letting their fighting skills & equipment atrophy under the belief that Russia/Iran/Hezbollah would always have their backs. Huge numbers of SAA soldiers were demobilized in earlier years, officially due to the ceasefire with HTS in Idlib in place, but also because the Syrian government literally didn't have enough money to pay their salaries (that drug money went into the pockets of Assad & his generals, as was standard with corrupt Mideastern dictatorships). He's also failed to reconstruct destroyed cities which he had recaptured over the years, and to generally give the Syrians under his rule reason to believe that things would get better instead of just stagnating as a corrupt hellhole forever. This popular demoralization + all of his foreign allies becoming busy or crippled recently + Al-Jolani doing the opposite of what he did and actually trying to build a better army & government in Idlib while he still had time seem to be the main reasons for his sudden and unexpected downfall.
 
If they actually manage to oust Assad, the following government will be even worse, if they even manage to get a compromise between the jihadis, the tribals and the NATO bitches.
You would think the Syrian people have suffered enough, but moloch demands blood.
 
If they actually manage to oust Assad, the following government will be even worse, if they even manage to get a compromise between the jihadis, the tribals and the NATO bitches.
You would think the Syrian people have suffered enough, but moloch demands blood.
Assuming there even is a government - most Mideastern countries' boundaries have nothing to do with historical/religious/ethnic lines so unless one of the rebel factions can somehow install a strongman who becomes Assad 2.0 without Russian or Iranian support, the most likely outcome is a 'government' that only controls a small portion of the country's territory with the rest of the land being controlled by some combination of breakaway states and ISIS/Al-Qaeda (I know those two are opponents but from the perspective of outside powers except maybe Turkey, they are both equally dangerous and unacceptable).

This is more or less what happened to Somalia starting in the 1990s and it is not a story Syria wants to replicate - for a while the Somali government was fighting for control of its own capital and even today the least volatile part of the country is the unrecognized breakaway Somaliland region in the north. And this is in a country with much less intervention from foreign powers than Syria - if you think Russia and Iran will take the loss of their patron/ally lying down I don't know what to tell you.
 
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Going, going...

Apparently the Syrian Republican Guard (Assad's personal Praetorians) has fucked off and the rebels are now beginning to enter his palace in Damascus. Their rather raggedy appearance would suggest these are Southern Front & other FSA friends, not the more professional-looking HTS of today with their uniforms & high production values. (Oh how things have changed, it was the opposite in 2014-18! I guess it's hard to look your best for the camera after 6 years of hiding in wait across the far southern Syrian countryside.)

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Bros...I think it's finally officially Bashover. (Or almost officially at least, if you're waiting for Al-Jolani to deliver a speech from said palace.)
...Gone.
 
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