Security of the Indo-Pacific thread - Discuss the ongoing arming and security pacts of countries in the pacific from Japan to New Zealand.

[Type 10 MBT]

This thread is meant to serve as a small OSINT discussion for those interested in the defense of nations of the Indo-Pacific. In recent years multiple nations have grown concerned with China and the potential threats to security that come with it's proximity. Many Nations from Japan to Australia to South Korea to even the Philippines have been going through extensive revisions and increases to defense budgets aimed at securing trade and upping readiness for a potential conflict in the region. Here we can discuss anything defense related be it policy, laws, budgets, weapons and so on so long as it pertains to the Pacific region and it's defense. This discussion of course can include information about China's actions, technology and so on.

 

[Screamer_2]

 

[Type 10 MBT]

https://youtube.com/watch?v=sgspkxfkS4k

It's not that insane of a thought. Germany's two biggest trading partners before WW1 were Britain and Russia. Before the Soviet Union and Germany went to war, Germany's biggest trade partner was the USSR. Trade today does not negate the possibility of war tomorrow.

 

[Breadbassket]

Bring back the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization?

 

[Lieutenant Rasczak]

Bring back the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization?

Honestly, creating a general Indo-Pacific alliance would be a smart move for the United States. Something like the Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization or IPCO would be a decent name. Not just for South-East Asia but rather the entire region.

Include Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam, and Thailand and include a defense provision for Taiwan, might as well bring India in on the fun while at it.

 

[Bogan]

Include Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam, and Thailand and include a defense provision for Taiwan, might as well bring India in on the fun while at it.

New Zealand is too incompetent now to be allowed in I guess.

 

[Scout Trooper]

New Zealand is too incompetent now to be allowed in I guess.

Only if New Zealand can manage to get their officers placed in command of Chinese warships.

 

[Lieutenant Rasczak]

New Zealand is too incompetent now to be allowed in I guess.

To be honest, I think New Zealand as a country is too sissified (they don't allow nuclear powered warships to dock in their ports) and I've read a few reports that they may possibly be compromised security wise.

 

[Bogan]

they don't allow nuclear powered warships to dock in their ports)

Imagine getting PTSD from the French lmao.

 

[Type 10 MBT]

New Zealand is too incompetent now to be allowed in I guess

Though I've never really covered New Zealand in terms of defense analytics so what little I know comes from just looking at Australia but I honestly think their contribution to a hot conflict would be token at best, neutral at worst. This isn't to say they're incompetent but rather they just don't have anywhere near enough war material to contribute much. They have two Anzac class frigates as their primary surface combat fleet that received recent upgrades but even still aren't on the level of most of it's new contemporaries. They also have 4 patrol vessels, 2 of which are armed with single mount 25mm bushmasters as the primary armament and 2 other inshore vessels with 3 .50 cal HMGs as the primary armament. I think their role in a war, should they actually want to join, would be maintaining a trade lane from Australia to NZ with their fleet and sending Army members in small amounts in joint moves with Australia. They are a defense force for a small nation but overall they aren't looking too hot. They would likely have Australian and American naval assistance though so that is in their favor. They should probably be kept in the loop just not in the inner circle.

 

[Rootless Cosmopolitan]

Allegedly, the Taiwan situation is heating up again as China is launching a giant naval “exercise” right now.

I have wondered for a while whether trade tensions/tariffs might be the thing that finally causes some Asia Happenings.

“Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose” - why hold back when the “punishment” was gonna be the same economic sanctions anyway?

 

[Jewthulhu]

Allegedly, the Taiwan situation is heating up again as China is launching a giant naval “exercise” right now.

Recent trends apparently looks like China prefers a blockade scenario rather than an invasion. And it's focusing on recovering economically before it tries anything.
Source (Archive)

Spoiler: Summary

• The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait.
• Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any military action as unlikely before 2027, citing economic challenges and geopolitical risks.
• Going forward, Beijing will act to normalize blockade tactics around Taiwan and bolster salami-slicing tactics, thus advancing coercive capabilities on a longer timeline.

I've seen so many arguments for why a Taiwan conflict in inevitable but I'm honestly not sure either way. I certainly don't believe the Thucydides trap argument that war is inevitable simply due to power status at least.

 

[Rootless Cosmopolitan]

Recent trends apparently looks like China prefers a blockade scenario rather than an invasion. And it's focusing on recovering economically before it tries anything.
Source (Archive)

Spoiler: Summary

• The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait.
• Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any military action as unlikely before 2027, citing economic challenges and geopolitical risks.
• Going forward, Beijing will act to normalize blockade tactics around Taiwan and bolster salami-slicing tactics, thus advancing coercive capabilities on a longer timeline.

I've seen so many arguments for why a Taiwan conflict in inevitable but I'm honestly not sure either way. I certainly don't believe the Thucydides trap argument that war is inevitable simply due to power status at least.

I believe war is something that just kind of happens in when people feel in a war mood. The justifications often come post hoc. I think the same thing about economic crashes.

The same is true about most fights in relationships as well.

 

[Jewthulhu]

I believe war is something that just kind of happens in when people feel in a war mood. The justifications often come post hoc. I think the same thing about economic crashes.

The same is true about most fights in relationships as well.

I disagree, though perhaps a debate on the cause of war is outside the scope of this thread.

Either way, I think the question of if/how/when the China-Taiwan conflict turns hot depends a lot on how ideologically fanatical the Chinese government is. Do they still hold to the old-school communist idea that victory against "imperialists" is a given? Are they rabid enough ultranationalists who think fucking up their society is worth a bit of worthless land and prestige? Do they truly believe that western deterrence is noncredible? Are they willing enough to continue to play the long game?

 

[Rootless Cosmopolitan]

I disagree, though perhaps a debate on the cause of war is outside the scope of this thread.

Either way, I think the question of if/how/when the China-Taiwan conflict turns hot depends a lot on how ideologically fanatical the Chinese government is. Do they still hold to the old-school communist idea that victory against "imperialists" is a given? Are they rabid enough ultranationalists who think fucking up their society is worth a bit of worthless land and prestige? Do they truly believe that western deterrence is noncredible? Are they willing enough to continue to play the long game?

Hmm. I guess I’ll rephrase my statement to say that I believe that the likelihood that China will escalate is directly related to the amount of social unrest they have at home. A high level of social unrest domestically could overcome the barriers that you cited.

I do think it’s interesting that economic sanctions were a credible deterrent pre Ukraine, but they seem to have totally lost their teeth. That goes into your point about the world losing faith in the power of western deterrence overall… which I believe is why so many people are so desperate to pour money and weapons into Ukraine. It’s to preserve what’s left of that credibility.

I think that a cessation of western involvement in Ukraine could do the trick.

 

[jalopy]

I was writing a comment in the LDP election debate thread but remembered this thread existed.

Considering the economic pressure created by the American Tariffs and the comparative hawkishness + explicit pro public spending of the new Japanese PM is there a world where the $550 billion can be spent on American manufacturing in Japan? Until the Russo Ukraine War Patriot missiles were only made in the United States and Japan.

In foreign relations Takaichi's strong nationalist attitude may expose Japan to another shit flinging contest with South Korea as Worst Korean politics remain primed to restart Moon/Abe feud over whether Japan is responsible for South Korea not distributing reparations to Comfort Women in the 70s. Consider that Vietnam told Myung to turn down the faggotry about war crimes performed by South Korean soldiers during the Vietnam War. Also, that Myung has repeatadly referred to Japan using Imperialist language.

I can't find much as to Thailand, Phillipines, and 'Stralia. In reality it looks like Takaichi's greatest issue is the political situation within Japan but I wanted to necro this thread.

 

[Type 10 MBT]

Considering the economic pressure created by the American Tariffs and the comparative hawkishness + explicit pro public spending of the new Japanese PM is there a world where the $550 billion can be spent on American manufacturing in Japan? Until the Russo Ukraine War Patriot missiles were only made in the United States and Japan.

It's possible some of the funds end up flowing back to Japan especially in regards to patriots as the US likes Japan's patriots just fine. Japan's patriots aren't US manufacturing as they're made by MHI, It would be more likely that a defense procurement agreement is made with Japan then the money is spent and Patriots are made then exported to the US. With Japan closing the recent improved Mogami deal with Australia, anything export related is more or less possible now. Australia is happy with Japan and Aussie public opinion is very positive as some of the ships will be made in Australia which they see as a means to get ship manufacturing capabilities back, which is true and good for them.

As for Thailand and the Philippines they seem fine with Takaichi's coming to power so long as she doesn't stop the Philippines from acquiring retired JMSDF ships. Thai boomers still talk about Japan a lot and the Philippines hate China so there's a shared interest as of the moment.