Source: El Debate (Spanish) Sunday, 7th July, 2024, 20:17
France raised its voice at the polls and the echo of its votes exploded in the ears of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen. Political godmother and godson cannot celebrate the victory they dreamed of. The National Rally (RN) wanted everything and that everything, for them, was an absolute majority, a demonstration that they could cut the cordon sanitaire of the left, which was sewn up with the centre and with that traditional right that looks at them and wants to see them as outcasts. They ended up in a frustrating third position.
It was not to be, according to the first exit polls, the renewed party of the old Jean Marie Le Pen will not be able to form a government and place Emmanuel Macron between the sword of his victory and the wall that would have forced him to resign after seeing his prime minister, Gabriel Attal, leave through the same door he came in. The cohabitation between water and oil did not seem to have a future with a Macron who has choked on his own medicine by calling early legislative elections.
Pending the official results, the outlook in France is expected to be as follows: the New Popular Front would win between 172 and 215 seats, followed by Macron's ruling alliance with between 150 and 180 and the National Rally (RN) and its allies between 115 and 155 seats. The absolute majority in the National Assembly is 289 seats (a total of 577); 76 were awarded in the first round so the distribution in this round was 501.
It is too early to do an exact count of the seats won today and those awarded directly in the first round a couple of weeks ago, but the order of winners and losers does not seem susceptible to alterations. Nor does the course of a European Union where Brussels was crossing its fingers. It is one thing to deal with Georgia Meloni and even with Viktor Orban and another to have in front of you the government of the second economy of the EU willing to threaten its very existence. The shadow of a French-style Brexit - although they have recently denied that possibility - did not fully clear until the polls closed.
Macron's blunder
To understand how we got to this point and what was at stake, we must remember the government's European election fiasco. Macron's response was to double down and go all out by calling these early legislative elections. A Gallic version of what Pedro Sánchez did last year.
The plan has not worked out well for him and now he will have to negotiate and put up with the toads and snakes of allies who, strictly speaking, are not on his side and do not share his ideological menu. His only consolation is, after launching this challenge, having avoided having the young Bardella as prime minister and Marine Le Pen warming up her muscles to try to get on the podium of the presidency before time.
The stampede withdrawal of more than two hundred candidates from the New National Front and to a lesser extent from Macronism, in order not to disperse the vote and block the way for RN, seems to have largely achieved its purpose. The decision, similar to the one unsuccessfully considered in Spain between the PP and Vox, to avoid a Frankenstein government, can be said to have worked.
Without these "withdrawals" things would probably be different in the ranks of Bardella and Le Pen. In any case, the young politician has established himself as the best example of a meteoric career.
At 28, Jordan Bardella cannot bring to the table any academic merit of his own, but he does have a golden tongue and an image of a seductive, kind, right-wing man, empathetic to the working classes and without prejudices to put together a story of a moving past due to his family roots, although a bit fantastical.
The sanitary cordon and the vaccine
With these results, pending official confirmation, the toxic cordon sanitaire that sought to put a noose around RN's neck is being broken.
The French have voted because Macron decided it and in that meeting they have chosen to vaccinate themselves against the centre, against moderation, against the extreme left and against those who pretend to be left-wing.
In Macron's France it is too late to cry over spilt milk, in Le Pen and Bardella's, despite everything, they toast with champagne.
France raised its voice at the polls and the echo of its votes exploded in the ears of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen. Political godmother and godson cannot celebrate the victory they dreamed of. The National Rally (RN) wanted everything and that everything, for them, was an absolute majority, a demonstration that they could cut the cordon sanitaire of the left, which was sewn up with the centre and with that traditional right that looks at them and wants to see them as outcasts. They ended up in a frustrating third position.
It was not to be, according to the first exit polls, the renewed party of the old Jean Marie Le Pen will not be able to form a government and place Emmanuel Macron between the sword of his victory and the wall that would have forced him to resign after seeing his prime minister, Gabriel Attal, leave through the same door he came in. The cohabitation between water and oil did not seem to have a future with a Macron who has choked on his own medicine by calling early legislative elections.
Pending the official results, the outlook in France is expected to be as follows: the New Popular Front would win between 172 and 215 seats, followed by Macron's ruling alliance with between 150 and 180 and the National Rally (RN) and its allies between 115 and 155 seats. The absolute majority in the National Assembly is 289 seats (a total of 577); 76 were awarded in the first round so the distribution in this round was 501.
It is too early to do an exact count of the seats won today and those awarded directly in the first round a couple of weeks ago, but the order of winners and losers does not seem susceptible to alterations. Nor does the course of a European Union where Brussels was crossing its fingers. It is one thing to deal with Georgia Meloni and even with Viktor Orban and another to have in front of you the government of the second economy of the EU willing to threaten its very existence. The shadow of a French-style Brexit - although they have recently denied that possibility - did not fully clear until the polls closed.
Macron's blunder
To understand how we got to this point and what was at stake, we must remember the government's European election fiasco. Macron's response was to double down and go all out by calling these early legislative elections. A Gallic version of what Pedro Sánchez did last year.
The plan has not worked out well for him and now he will have to negotiate and put up with the toads and snakes of allies who, strictly speaking, are not on his side and do not share his ideological menu. His only consolation is, after launching this challenge, having avoided having the young Bardella as prime minister and Marine Le Pen warming up her muscles to try to get on the podium of the presidency before time.
The stampede withdrawal of more than two hundred candidates from the New National Front and to a lesser extent from Macronism, in order not to disperse the vote and block the way for RN, seems to have largely achieved its purpose. The decision, similar to the one unsuccessfully considered in Spain between the PP and Vox, to avoid a Frankenstein government, can be said to have worked.
Without these "withdrawals" things would probably be different in the ranks of Bardella and Le Pen. In any case, the young politician has established himself as the best example of a meteoric career.
At 28, Jordan Bardella cannot bring to the table any academic merit of his own, but he does have a golden tongue and an image of a seductive, kind, right-wing man, empathetic to the working classes and without prejudices to put together a story of a moving past due to his family roots, although a bit fantastical.
The sanitary cordon and the vaccine
With these results, pending official confirmation, the toxic cordon sanitaire that sought to put a noose around RN's neck is being broken.
The French have voted because Macron decided it and in that meeting they have chosen to vaccinate themselves against the centre, against moderation, against the extreme left and against those who pretend to be left-wing.
In Macron's France it is too late to cry over spilt milk, in Le Pen and Bardella's, despite everything, they toast with champagne.
