Is Harris Good for Israel?
Forget everything you think you know about Kamala Harris and Israel.
Shmuel Rosner
July 24, 2024
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris gives remarks on conflict-related sexual violence at an event in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on June 17, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Forget everything you think you know about Kamala Harris and Israel. Because what you know, you don’t really know. I mean, you know, but you don’t know if what you know is what you think you know. Put simply: Until last Sunday Kamala Harris was not Kamala Harris. She was Joe Biden. She was a vice president, who is committed to what the president decides. Every statement she made was weighed against the president’s position, coordinated with the president’s people, and was part of the president’s set of messages. If she spoke softly about Israel, it could be that she did so at the request of the president. If she spoke harshly about Israel, it is possible that she also did this at the request of the president.
Vice presidents have no policy. And if they do, the president is always quick to straighten them out. Vice presidents like Kamala Harris — who serves under a much more experienced president and wants one day to succeed him — certainly had no policy. Even Vice Presidents much more experienced than her — for example: George H.W. Bush — make sure to remain within the parameters set by their boss policy. In Bush’s case, it was Ronald Reagan, whose policies did not always match Bush’s positions. In Al Gore’s case, it was Bill Clinton, whose antics in the White House often drove Gore crazy, but he still had to keep his mouth shut. Some VP’s were more involved in decision-making, some were excluded from decision-making almost entirely. But in recent decades there has not been a vice president who connived against their president.
Since the start of the war in Gaza, Kamala Harris made some statements that were unpleasant to Israeli ears. She opposed Israel’s entry into Rafah. She said an immediate ceasefire was required. There will be Israelis who will recognize in these statements a sentiment less sympathetic to Israel than Biden’s, or Trump’s. That would be an error. Not because Harris sympathizes with Israel as much as Biden does. She probably sympathizes with Israel less. She belongs to a different generation of Americans, and the Israel she knows is not the Israel that shaped Biden’s sentiment. He — an American born in the 1940s — shaped his attitudes toward Israel under the impression of Holocaust and Independence. She — an American born in the 1960s — shaped her attitudes toward Israel under the impression of the Lebanon war, the intifadas and Oslo.
It is easy for Israelis to assume that in America the new generation is a diminished version of past generations. They used to love us more, today they love us less. As if there is no reason for this other than the general decline of America, or the Democratic Party. The truth is a bit more complex. Americans have changed — and so have we Israelis. Harris is not Biden, and Netanyahu is not Menachem Begin. Her Democratic Party is not Biden’s Democratic Party. His Likud Party is not Yitzhak Shamir’s Likud Party.
And as mentioned, everything we think we know about Harris and Israel is nothing more than an illusion. It looks like Harris but is the product of Biden. Until she joined him, Harris rarely engaged with issues that have anything to do with Israel (other than marrying a Jew, assuming that counts). Her positions on the Middle East were formulated mainly during her time as a candidate and VP. Biden led, she learned and echoed what she was asked to echo. Unlike Dick Cheney under George W Bush, she did not play a key role in shaping foreign policy.Americans have changed – and so have we Israelis. Harris is not Biden, and Netanyahu is not Menachem Begin. Her Democratic Party is not Biden’s Democratic Party. His Likud Party is not Yitzhak Shamir’s Likud Party.
All this does not mean that Harris is a good choice from Israel’s perspective. All this does not mean that Harris is a bad choice from Israel’s perspective. If she is not a candidate (small chance), or not elected president (higher chance), her positions on Israel will not be particularly important. A stinging loss of the nomination, or an expected loss to Donald Trump, will be the signal to a new generation of Democratic leaders come to the fore. Harris is a one-shot leader. If she beats Trump, she will be president and the leader of her camp. If she loses, she will be sidelined the way Biden has been sidelined now.
And what are relations with Israel going to look like? Israelis have a tendency to prefer Republican presidents. An understandable tendency, given the prevailing sentiments in the Democratic Party. Israelis also have a known tendency to misjudge the expected policies of a new American administration. Yitzhak Rabin was suspicious of Bill Clinton, and learned to love him. LBJ — without anyone quite expecting it — was perhaps the friendliest president to Israel ever.
But you always must take into account the circumstances: what the president feels and thinks is important. What Israel says and does is important. And most important is what happens. Because of circumstances Carter was able to usher in a historic peace agreement with Egypt and had to contend with revolution in Iran. Bush the father had to deal with the fall of the Berlin Wall, his son with the fall of the Twin Towers. Reality dictates a priority and a policy. And this will be as true for Harris as it is for every other candidate.
How could you say something else? Maybe if/when she becomes the president, she’s going to change people’s minds…
Something I wrote in Hebrew
Here’s what I wrote about exaggerated expectations concerning the role of an investigative committee for the Oct. 7 calamity:A state commission of inquiry that would try to replace the long process of historical inquiry would be a foregone disappointment. The framing of the scope and nature of the investigation will dictate the conclusions — and the victims will immediately understand that a different framing would have dictated other conclusions. They will claim, quite rightly, that the outcome is pre-written. They will argue, with some justice, that the circle was drawn around the arrow.
All polls predict that if/when a new party is formed that includes former PM Naftali Bennett, former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, former minister Gideon Sa’ar and former head of Mossad Yossi Cohen – it would be Israel’s largest party by a significant margin.
A reader’s response:
Tanya wrote: “Bibi should have cancelled his speech; he will get no attention this week.” My response: 1. The attention he needs is in Israel. 2. He shouldn’t have scheduled this visit to begin with. 3. I’m writing this before the speech, so maybe I’ll have to eat my hat…Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.
