The only "realistic" extinction level even you could really come up with, would be if you believe the conspiracy theories that aliens are set to glass the earth if we ever leave the solar system, out of fear of our species warlike tendancies, ala Dan Akryod. Even a mass event like a meteor strike or nuclear holocaust (And a lot of the data on nuclear holocausts is infact overblown) we would still have enough survivors that a new, albeit more primitive, civilization would emerge. So short of some other species coming here and fucking us up, or the sun skipping several stages and going kaboom, we'd likely, as a species at least, survive. The main difference between us and other species is our ability to teach each other, and that goes miles twords suitability as a whole.
There are certain things like Quasar beams or migrating black holes and such that could theoretically wipe all life from Earth, but the chances of that happening in the next 4 billion years are very low.
As for Aliens... I think there are 2 possible scenarios.
A- Superpowered aliens
B- Aliens just a little more advanced than us.
In case A, I really doubt they would need to resort to killing us all to contain us. Think about South park, and how they simply put a forcefield around Earth.
I imagine these aliens are so advanced, even if we got into space we would not be a threat to them and they would ignore us if we did not move actively against them.
The only thing I can see these aliens doing is a low key observation of Earth for scientific and or entertainment reasons.
In case B, I imagine we would face an alien race 2-3 centuries ahead of us. However I doubt most of these aliens would be fanatical cannibal killers. I can rather imagine them exploiting and/or enslaving humans.
We also do not know if there is any sort of galactic community out there. It is possible that an advanced alien power would try to discourage lesser ones from wiping each other out.
Though all in all, I am not sure FTL is even possible, and that alien life is rife. The most likely scenario is that aliens are too far and wide in space and time to come to us.
And if they can't do FTL, they would need massive colony ships which would have trouble faring against an entire planet's resources. You also can't easily make intersteller empires without FTL.