Future of geopolitics

[Corpun]

I've been thinking of the future of geopolitics and international powers recently and wondered what people think here. In a post US led world that looks to be creeping on us as the power of the US dwindles from it's world police LARP what will the new powerhouses be? Obviously barring total collapse of the US it will still be a major player, but where will the new centers of power be?

Will Europe as the EU take lead or will China complete it's domination, or will we return to more regional hegemons like we had in the 19th century, IE Turkey projecting over the ME in conflict with Israel and Iran or Europe shoving it's influence where it can and maybe some major African players?

 

[Chilson]

Regional alliances fighting proxy wars in independent third world shitholes, because no one is willing to declare actual war because nukes. I am in full support of the US not being world police anymore, all that ever did was fuck over America and its people. let the other nations now shoulder the cost of active full time militaries and then they can talk about funding absurd social programs.

The EU will never be able to unite the disparate European peoples unless they go fully 1984 dictatorship, which they don't have the support or manpower to do. It will either collapse and most European nations will join a more traditional alliance (or just stay in NATO), or lose most of its power to the point where it might as well not exist (like the UN).

China is a paper dragon that everyone hates. The only reason they have gotten as far as they have is due to the absurdly cheap slave labor they offer to other nations. I wouldn't be surprised if the world lets them have Taiwan back, but If China tries to do anything more the rest of the world is not going to have it. It won't be outright war, just proxy conflicts to destabilize and expend CCP resources.

 

[The Mass Shooter Ron Soye]

USA vs. China, will unironically be called Cold War II in the history books. Rivalry with China will improve a stagnant USA.

 

[gang weeder]

I for one eagerly await the triumph of our incoming Chinese overlords.

 

[ItCouldBeWorse]

The EU will never be able to unite the disparate European peoples unless they go fully 1984 dictatorship, which they don't have the support or manpower to do. It will either collapse and most European nations will join a more traditional alliance (or just stay in NATO), or lose most of its power to the point where it might as well not exist (like the UN).

This. I believe the EU will inevitably collapse, most likely during the looming economic crisis. The EU almost went bust in 2008, but America bailed them out of it. I don't think most rulers actually like the EU, but simply tolerate it in exchange for eurogibs, once shit goes down and the gibs stop, a lot more politicians will campaign for lowering EU influence. I simply can't see states like Hungary or Poland staying, they will either leave on their own merit or get kicked out.

The Ukrainian conflict has short term boosted the EU when it comes to popularity polls of the union, but once the economic whiplash from the war sets in, some shit is gonna go down. I can 100% see pro-euro parties scaring voters by fear mongering about a ruskie invasion,

 

[Jewthulhu]

Militarily, economically, or politically? Because either way, I disagree that things are shifting away from US domination.

Militarily, it's really no contest. The US has no major threats to its air superiority, leads the world in managing military logistics, has military bases around the world, has combat experience, a flexible command structure, and is far ahead of its near-peers not only in military technology, but the necessary training to use it. The best example of this is looking at our closest rival, Russia, and how it's managing the war in Ukraine. They are struggling to maintain air superiority, completely fucked logistically, running clunky, inflexible operations, and seemingly lack GPS, optics, NODs, effective precision-guided munitions (theirs are seemingly much less effective than the US'), and drone support.

Economically, I have to admit I'm really not an expert on the matter. China seems to be a strong rival economically, and there's some talk in the Middle East about hedging their bets on China over the US; though from what I understand China's economy is a house of cards and seems to be slowing down. Either way though, the US still has enough economic weight to not really have to worry about its influence completely collapsing (I don't think).

Politically, most of what's going on seems to be strengthening the US' power. Russia's bullshit in Ukraine basically scared every Eastern European country not already part of NATO (or run by a Russian puppet) to start considering NATO membership. China's bullshit in general has basically scared all of it's neighbors into a closer relationship with each other and the US against China. I think the one place we're starting to lose some political footing in is the Middle East, though we still have a good relationship with the main military and economic powerhouses there.

I wouldn't be surprised if the world lets them have Taiwan back

Given that Taiwan is responsible for something like 98% of the world's semiconductor production and most of the world hates China, I doubt we'd just let China take Taiwan. Also, I think a lot of China's neighbors have a defense pact with Taiwan. They at the very least have a vested interest in not seeing the CCP grow any stronger.
Also, Taiwan is the remnants of pre-communist China, so it's not really the CCP's to take "back."

 

[gang weeder]

Given that Taiwan is responsible for something like 98% of the world's semiconductor production and most of the world hates China, I doubt we'd just let China take Taiwan. Also, I think a lot of China's neighbors have a defense pact with Taiwan. They at the very least have a vested interest in not seeing the CCP grow any stronger.

The transnational elite doesn't care about that. They have already stated openly that more expensive gas is a good thing bc muh climate. Why would other resources be any different? I think what you need to understand is that the US ruling class is more concerned with keeping its own people under the bootheel rather than any kind of threat with Chyna. They feel far more threatened by Drumpf than Xi. And with good reason, many of them are in bed with China six ways from Sunday already.

Also, Taiwan is the remnants of pre-communist China, so it's not really the CCP's to take "back."

Okay and try telling the CCP that see how well that one goes over.

 

[Jewthulhu]

The transnational elite doesn't care about that. They have already stated openly that more expensive gas is a good thing bc muh climate. Why would other resources be any different? I think what you need to understand is that the US ruling class is more concerned with keeping its own people under the bootheel rather than any kind of threat with Chyna. They feel far more threatened by Drumpf than Xi. And with good reason, many of them are in bed with China six ways from Sunday already.

I don't think you understand how important semiconductors are. They're literally in everything. If the "US ruling class" wants to stay in power and keep people under its bootheel, you're damn sure they're going to make sure nothing happens to the semiconductor supply, especially given the number of powerful people in big tech (which is fucked if anything messes with semiconductor production). If China manages to take Taiwan, not only will semiconductor production be globally fucked for however long the war goes on plus the time it takes to rebuild (Taiwan accounts for 50% of global semiconductor production, and you can be sure China's going to make it's part in the supply chain difficult for allies of Taiwan), not only is there a question whether China will be willing and/or able to pick up semiconductor production from where Taiwan left off, but now the world suddenly gifted control of one of the most important aspects of the modern economy to an essentially hostile power and there becomes massive questions as to what China will do with that.

And if you want to know the "US ruling class'" stance on Taiwan, just ask Joe Biden.

Okay and try telling the CCP that see how well that one goes over.

It's just the history. Hell, up until the 70s or 80s the official stated goal of Taiwan's army was to "retake the mainland"

 

[gang weeder]

I don't think you understand how important semiconductors are. They're literally in everything. If the "US ruling class" wants to stay in power and keep people under its bootheel, you're damn sure they're going to make sure nothing happens to the semiconductor supply, especially given the number of powerful people in big tech (which is fucked if anything messes with semiconductor production).

If they don't care about restricting access to oil or energy more broadly, then what else is there? Food I guess? It doesn't get much more essential than that. I'm sure the World Economic Forum would love to restrict personal ownership and use of complex electronics like computers. If our governments actually thought it was that important they'd be taking steps to start making semiconductors, y'know, here, rather than just leaving it all in Taiwan.

And if you want to know the "US ruling class'" stance on Taiwan, just ask Joe Biden.

Mmhmm I'm gonna totally trust and believe whatever Joe fucking Biden the senile pedo-puppet says.

It's just the history. Hell, up until the 70s or 80s the official stated goal of Taiwan's army was to "retake the mainland"

Okay and try telling the CCP that and see if it stops them from invading Taiwan.