the different candidates mean we'll be able to see how many people really prefer the pro-israel pick to the freepalestine one. our best example might be the NYC primary, where the one guy that didn't suck off israel ended up getting the nomination and winning in a landslide both in the primary and election. i could easily see that scenario happen again in the dnc primary. 4 old suits who's views are too similar split the vote and a young minority wins.
another thing to point out is that by the numbers i think its about 3/4ths of democrats don't support israel, so trying to run as a Webb style moderate will be a bad idea. the '28 election will be ripe for extremists, some status quo person going "israel are our greatest allies, and epstein did nothing wrong" will be vaporized.
I'd say the "Israel or Palestine" question, or hell, even the "Israel support, yes or no" question in general is secondary. Part of the reason Mamdani won is the guy ACTUALLY put forth a message of "here's how I'll change things so you can buy a home, can afford groceries, can travel without worry, etc.". Whether he actually meant it or could even get them done is a different matter; but he pushed a message that people wanted to hear.
Meanwhile, Cuomo kept on going "Israel is our greatest ally", with no actual messaging on making things like rent or gas or groceries cheaper. And I don't care how pro-Israel you are, short of being either a jew who's about to get on a plane to Tel Aviv or Ben Shapiro, you are gonna be more interested in supporting the guy who is promising to make things better, and that was basically Mamdani.
This was basically shown by the Minneapolis election that voted in Frey over that somali guy, that most people didn't pay attention to because Mamdani vs Cuomo was more interesting. One of the things Frey did right is he didn't fixate on Israel like Cuomo did, but rather argued his opponent's points and talked about making buying a house cheaper. And because of that, he beat the guy, despite being pro-Israel.
When it comes to 2028, short of some giant, sudden action no one could imagine, I think the issue won't so much better upon whether the US will support Israel or Palestine more. The bigger question will be who can serve the people more and improve the economic and socio-cultural stability of the nation; and honestly, if tomorrow, you get Rabbi Shlomo BenGviristein who's a doctor, has a lawyer wife, wears a Star of David on his cap, and has a giant nose come in front of the people and at least make them think that he will focus on economic benefits of the American people first and foremost, he may come out with a decent chance to win.
The thing is, though...in current time, it really doesn't seem like any of the pro-Israel side can actually do that. Even Trump's current shit makes him look like if he had to choose between Israel and America, he might choose Israel 50% of the time.
