This is one of the most striking demographic controversies in Latin America. Here's how the figures compare:
The "official" picture (Cuban government + UN/World Bank):
Around 2020, official figures put Cuba at roughly 11.3 million residents. Cuba's population peaked in 2012 at 11.3 million and has been declining since. International bodies like the UN and World Bank, which largely rely on Cuban government data, currently place the island at around 10.9–11.2 million — a modest decline.
The independent estimate (then vs. now):
The picture painted by independent researchers is far more alarming. A study by renowned Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos estimates that by end of 2024 there were only 8,025,624 people living on the island — significantly lower than the 9,748,532 reflected in official Cuban statistics. Albizu-Campos warns that a population contraction of this magnitude "has only been observed in contexts of armed conflict," and suggests the need to analyze the situation not as a demographic crisis but as a full-blown systemic crisis.
Why the gap is so large:
The report estimates that 545,011 people left the island in 2024 alone — double the official figure recognized by the government, which only accounts for migrants heading to the United States and overlooks those departing for other countries.
The Cuban government refuses to give concrete figures on the massive outflow of citizens, claiming that until they have been out of the country for two years, they are still considered residents. This accounting trick artificially inflates their population count.
In summary:
| Source | ~2020 estimate | ~2024–2025 estimate |
|---|
| Cuban government / UN | ~11.3 million | ~9.7–10.9 million |
| Independent researchers | ~10–11 million | ~8 million |
The gap between official and independent figures is now roughly
2 million people — an extraordinary divergence that reflects both the scale of the emigration crisis and the Cuban government's systematic undercounting of it.
