War Analysis suggests US was responsible for deadly strike on Iranian elementary school

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/middleeast/iran-minab-elementary-school-investigation-us-strike-intl
https://archive.is/Gship

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The United States military was likely responsible for the strike on an elementary school in southern Iran that killed scores of children, the deadliest incident of civilian casualties in the US and Israel’s almost week-long war with Iran, according to CNN and expert analysis of evidence.
Satellite imagery, geolocated videos, public statements from US officials and the assessment of munitions experts suggest that the Shajare Tayyiba elementary school in Minab was hit on February 28 at around the same time as an attack that American forces likely carried out on a neighboring Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval base.

The White House has not ruled out that US military personnel carried out the strike that, according to Iranian state media, killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman said at a briefing Friday that he was “not aware of any IDF activity in the area.” Both countries stressed that they do not target civilians.

When assessing which military is responsible for a particular strike – in any conflict – CNN typically obtains images of the remnants of the weapons used in the attack and provides these to munitions experts so that their provenance can be assessed.
With Iran’s internet blackout, images and footage from the ground are limited. CNN has not been able to examine such evidence in this case, so any assessment cannot be conclusive.
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However, other evidence points toward US responsibility for the strike, which occurred Saturday morning – the first day of the working and school week in Iran. Videos geolocated by CNN show that the school was struck at or around the same time as the naval base, with one showing smoke billowing both from the IRGC facility and the school building.

Satellite imagery from 2013 showed that the school and the IRGC base were once part of the same compound. But images from 2016 revealed that a fence had been erected to separate the school from the rest of the base, and that a separate entrance to the school had been built. In December 2025, imagery showed dozens of people in the school’s courtyard, apparently playing in what appears to be a court for ballgames.

School and adjacent Iranian military base hit by several strikes​

Satellite imagery from March 3 shows extensive damage to several buildings at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval base adjacent to the Shajarah Tayyebeh girls’ school in Minab. More than 100 students were killed in the school strike, according to the Iranian government.​

N.R. Jenzen-Jones, a munitions expert and the director of Armament Research Services (ARES), told CNN that the satellite imagery and videos “paint a picture of multiple simultaneous or near-simultaneous strikes” hitting both the IRGC compound and the school.

Initially, speculation swirled online that the blast at the school could have been caused by misfiring Iranian air defenses, as the IRGC tried to repel incoming air strikes.
But Jenzen-Jones said that explanation was unlikely, since recent imagery of the naval base showed the buildings had sustained significant damage, suggesting they had been struck with air-delivered precision-guided munitions, rather than “air defense missiles that have gone awry.”

“We’re seeing targeted strikes that look like they’re intended to disable those buildings. That’s the most likely outcome,” he added.

Jenzen-Jones also said that military bases such as the one at Minab would often be among the “pre-planned targets” to be struck in the opening exchanges of a conflict.

US officials have confirmed that the US has struck military targets in southern Iran. In a briefing Wednesday, Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, presented a map that plotted American and Israeli strikes on Iran over the first 100 hours of the war. He said Israel had mostly struck northern Iran while the US had targeted the south.

Caine said that along Iran’s “southern axis,” the US has “continued to provide pressure from the sea, along the southeastern side of the coast, and has been attriting naval capability all along the Strait and up into the Arabian Gulf at a size and scale sufficiently to address the targets required.”

The most likely explanation for the school strike, Jenzen-Jones said, is that the US inadvertently struck the facility while it was carrying out the attack on the naval base, not realizing that the school was no longer part of the IRGC compound, or having failed to update its targeting officers.

“It’s probably a targeting failure,” he said. “Somewhere in the target cycle, an intelligence failure meant that the target set wasn’t updated, or a decision was made later in the cycle that resulted in the wrong target being hit.”

Asked for comment on the incident, the US Defense Department referred CNN to Central Command (CENTCOM). CNN has asked CENTCOM for comment.

US officials have neither confirmed nor denied responsibility. Central Command said earlier that it was “aware of reports concerning civilian harm resulting from ongoing military operations” and was “looking into them.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that an investigation had been launched.

Although the probe is ongoing and a conclusion has not yet been reached, Reuters reported Friday that US military investigators believe it is likely that US forces were responsible for the strike on the school.

Volker Türk, the United Nations human rights chief, said Friday that the UN has “significant concerns” about whether the strikes complied with international humanitarian law.

Ravina Shamdasani, a UN spokeswoman, told CNN the strike “must not become just another horrific incident that leaves the headlines and is no longer a priority. There needs to be accountability.”

President Trump and SecDef Hegseth comment:
 
You mean Middle East Muslim Doomsday cultists are perfectly fine putting military targets next to civilian targets so that civilians will die in strikes? I'm fucking shocked. Also, if I recall my various "laws of war," doing shit like that, if there's collateral damage, is the fault of the country doing it. Because everyone who isn't a leftist shithead knows why you put schools next to military targets.
 
Such is the nature of war. It is retarded to pretend to have the moral high guard on this. Infact it's more evil to pretend to be moral while you're doing heinous things than to just admit you love doing it. But, I am ready to hear the 4d chess cope on how all these kids were actually gone by the time the strike happened by some divine miracle and how all casualties are simply fake news. The circus is in town, and the performers are ready to dance, and I am their trumpeter.
 
You mean Middle East Muslim Doomsday cultists are perfectly fine putting military targets next to civilian targets so that civilians will die in strikes? I'm fucking shocked. Also, if I recall my various "laws of war," doing shit like that, if there's collateral damage, is the fault of the country doing it. Because everyone who isn't a leftist shithead knows why you put schools next to military targets.
During Gulf War I and II there were documented cases of AAA guns being put in the courtyards of schools or the roofs of mosques in the hopes they would be targeted and the inevitable collateral damage could be blamed on America being a bunch of butchers and vandals.
 
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Such is the nature of war. It is retarded to pretend to have the moral high guard on this. Infact it's more evil to pretend to be moral while you're doing heinous things than to just admit you love doing it. But, I am ready to hear the 4d chess cope on how all these kids were actually gone by the time the strike happened by some divine miracle and how all casualties are simply fake news. The circus is in town, and the performers are ready to dance, and I am their trumpeter.
What are you even talking about? Nobody on either side has said the casualties are fake news. The question was whose missile did it which is honestly pointless to worry about. You dont spend decades funding terror groups, threatening more powerful countries, and then put a fucking school next to a legit military target for no reason. It's horrible that those children died. Just as horrible as all of those young protesters(possibly in the thousands) who were killed in the street by the government
 
What are you even talking about? Nobody on either side has said the casualties are fake news. The question was whose missile did it which is honestly pointless to worry about. You dont spend decades funding terror groups, threatening more powerful countries, and then put a fucking school next to a legit military target for no reason. It's horrible that those children died. Just as horrible as all of those young protesters(possibly in the thousands) who were killed in the street by the government
You would be surprised at how news like this gets dismissed as either being fake or a hoax, but yes the Iranian government is also a piece of shit too.
 
a fence had been erected to separate the school from the rest of the base,
Thanks god there was a fence between a military base and a school to properly separate them.
Initially, speculation swirled online that the blast at the school could have been caused by misfiring Iranian air defenses, as the IRGC tried to repel incoming air strikes.
But Jenzen-Jones said that explanation was unlikely, since recent imagery of the naval base showed the buildings had sustained significant damage, suggesting they had been struck with air-delivered precision-guided munitions, rather than “air defense missiles that have gone awry.”
So the evidence is basically non existent and relies on you automatically blaming USA/Israel for everything.
Volker Türk, the United Nations human rights chief, said Friday that the UN has “significant concerns” about whether the strikes complied with international humanitarian law.
Putting a school next to an army base is somehow not deserving of such concerns.
Ravina Shamdasani, a UN spokeswoman, told CNN the strike “must not become just another horrific incident that leaves the headlines and is no longer a priority. There needs to be accountability.”
Unless it is a case of UN soldiers raping the local citizens.
 
The best way to protect civilians during military operations is ironically to bomb these targets into the ground even harder than normal. Make it known to the enemy that even if they put civilians in the way, we will attack even harder.

Do everything you can to dissuade your enemies from continuing to use civilians as a human shield. Because it wasn't the US or Israel who really killed them (if they did at all), it was the Iranian government by using them as shields.

It sucks, but Iraq and Afghanistan are proof that "hearts and minds" doesn't fucking work and in fact only makes things worse for civilians as they are repeatedly used and abused as human shields by their own military.
 
I wish I could believe anything CNN ever publishes.

Also their link to expert analysis seems to have no authoritative expert.
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N.R. Jenzen-Jones is a technical intelligence specialist and arms historian.
I see nothing fleshing out his 'technical intelligence specialist' status.

He seems to have a well established resume as an arms historian but this just seems like the conjecture of a layman.
 
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we all saw the rocket hit the school

i am not going to deny my lying eyes for the "experts"

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."
 
The best way to protect civilians during military operations is ironically to bomb these targets into the ground even harder than normal. Make it known to the enemy that even if they put civilians in the way, we will attack even harder.

Do everything you can to dissuade your enemies from continuing to use civilians as a human shield. Because it wasn't the US or Israel who really killed them (if they did at all), it was the Iranian government by using them as shields.

It sucks, but Iraq and Afghanistan are proof that "hearts and minds" doesn't fucking work and in fact only makes things worse for civilians as they are repeatedly used and abused as human shields by their own military.
The civillians getting killed often have no idea about world politics and "msgs being sent." The exception being Gaza where the country is too small to not know.
 
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