2025 US and Venezuela Conflict - Operation Just Cause 2: 2 Just 2 Cause

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MV Ocean Trader and USS Lake Erie are leaving Port of Ponce, PR. MV Ocean Trader is a SpecOps mothership.

Steve is live:

Anyone have any idea if there are any X accounts that report on when B-2s take off from their bases? If they're striking tonight they should be taking off soon.
 
I don't think anything will happen before the aircraft carrier arrives
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lurker7274519 dijo:
I don't think anything will happen before the aircraft carrier arrives
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If this was some shithole in the Middle East then I'd agree with you. But Venezuela isn't that far from the US so an aircraft carrier isn't really necessary. This is the same administration that duped all of us in June when they had us following tankers over the Pacific thinking they were escorting B-2s when they had launched the B-2s hours before and flying over the Atlantic. The markets just closed and Trump doesn't want to upset the markets so an attack tonight seems more likely than not.
 
Mr. Racewar1488 dijo:
If this was some shithole in the Middle East then I'd agree with you. But Venezuela isn't that far from the US so an aircraft carrier isn't really necessary. This is the same administration that duped all of us in June when they had us following tankers over the Pacific thinking they were escorting B-2s when they had launched the B-2s hours before and flying over the Atlantic. The markets just closed and Trump doesn't want to upset the markets so an attack tonight seems more likely than not.
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Something interesting with all this is the difference between "doing something" and "something happens". Ultimately, "Nothing Ever Happens" is "The Status Quo doesn't shift". Trump is disturbingly consistent with taking drastic action without causing drastic fallout, at least so far.

Is Trump about to attack them? Probably.

Will it result in a change to the status quo for me and you? Probably not. At least not without a third party getting involved.
 
Background:
In 2018 there was a near-coup against Maduro and several military officials proved less than reliable. No one actually went against Maduro but several generals basically refused to deploy troops in support.

Anyway, in light of this Maduro had a sufficient freak out and since has contracted his personal security detail to Wagner Group, a Russian Private Military Corporation (read: mercenaries)

Tuesday a Il-76 transport aircraft (read: Russian 747/Airbus A380) used by Wagner landed in Venezuela.

Este contenido es privado.

Does this mean that Wagner saw the bounty on Maduro's head and wanted to make sure they had enough plane to to fly it back to Russia without needing to make two trips? I guess we might find out.

Gloria The Glorious dijo:
Is Trump about to attack them? Probably.

Will it result in a change to the status quo for me and you? Probably not. At least not without a third party getting involved.
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This right here. There is almost certainly going to be some shit blown up, if not this weekend then very soon, unless Maduro actually moves against the Nacros (read: his own generals, so pretty much impossible). This doesn't mean there will be any actual change in power.

draggs dijo:
The military has no pressure to churro Maduro, and is afraid of getting purged (again) and of having to fight a civil war against the Chavismos in the slums if it did churro him

If the choice becomes get buttblasted by American bombs and missiles, or churro him and fight a civil war against the Chavismos in the slums... they'll probably choose get buttblasted tbh
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The other thing is if there is some sort of civil that kicks off, it will be very short or very gay. Columbia is currently run by a commie, Lulu in Brazil is a pink commie, so the only cross-border place any rebels will have to operate from is Guyana's side - and thye are also a bunch of socialists so may chase them out for fear of also getting toppled.

not william stenchever dijo:
And yet he cries out in fear to allies that will not heed his call. He is an invincible fool.
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He knows he cannot be churroed, but fears being mired in an eternal civilwar.

Anyway, I hope you all have a better weekend than either Juan Gaydildo or Edmundo Gonzalez. Both those niggas sitting in Madrid, wide awake and sweating , realizing there is a non-zero chance that Maduro gets toppled and they will have to leave Madrid and actually run Venezuela instead of living that sweet "Government in exile" life.
 
WelperHelper99 dijo:
Those fighters are getting shot down within the next few hours
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Yeah, there is honestly not much Venezuela can do. To give them credit, they are slightly better armed than the average South American country (they would 'mog' Guyana for example unless they get British support) but compared to powerhouses like Brazil, Chile, and Argentina, they're a joke. They can't even really rely on a Volksturm-like milita since their own people hate them and would rather turn tail than fight to the bitter end, plus also have conflicting loyalties with transnational gangs and cartels.

This is going to be like Panama again.
 
Paintrick S Canlinson dijo:
Just wanted to thank @Mr. Racewar1488 for helping me keep my Trinidadian buddy informed. He's calling for TVN and gets a lot of joy out of every drug boat sank and wants all the refugees out of his home country
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Does he use Telegram? I can send you some invites to the channels I follow.
 
Historical Strelkov dijo:
Are people forgetting we just smacked Iran with no pushback?
What the fuck is Venezuela going to do if a B-2 bomber decides to trick or treat?
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This is a 100% Pr war, most of the army will break before any actual combat starts. But you have to remember that these niggers are evil and must have prepared a long list of plans to dissuade could be invaders, as I mentioned before.
A Cardboard Box dijo:
Venezuela's strengths are asymmetric. Their deterrence options are primarily centered on being able to make a ton of problems for the region. They have spent the last two decades building a network of communist guerillas and making inroads with narco terrorists.
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Besides, their own specialized teams setting the country ablaze to cause as much PR damage to the US and mental damage to the civilian population. There is a shiton of narcoguerrillas occupying the slums and jungles, that will not go down quietly because they simply have no option to do so, I am actually curious about what would happen to them if there is an actual change of administration.

TLDR: Communism is a narcissistic girl with BPD, if you try to leave her she will selfharm as much as she can to try to get the breakup to be hard and painful
 
lurker7274519 dijo:
I am actually curious about what would happen to them if there is an actual change of administration.
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Who the fuck knows. One of the biggest parts of post WWII interventionist theory is "you break it you bought it," essentially meaning that if you destabilize or regime change a country through military action that you are responsible for assisting in government transition. This is what makes forays like Afghanistan and Iraq so expensive and politically contentious. The alternative is to create an anarchic power vacuum and just not give a fuck about who takes over. I have no doubt that Trump has less than zero interest in state building, so I'm quite concerned about just how bad things can get if we do manage to just Maduro and just refuse to do anything to prop up allies in the aftermath.

Venezuela is a shithole, but it is a shithole with an authoritarian regime which is more concerned with internal stability and keeping their own people beaten down than causing problems regionally, beyond some narco fuckery which, frankly, pales in comparison to Ecuador and Mexico. It can get worse, and as you and I have pointed out, their nuclear option is just self immolating so hard that it destabilizes the region and causes a massive humanitarian crisis that we're forced to deal with one way or another.
 
I doubt the government could do much to "destabilize the region" Venezuela itself ? Sure, I no doubt believe that if the US actually does any meaningful move they will send every shitty branch of the police (we have like a thousand, they all do nothing anyways), the militia and their hood nigger death squads (with cuban forces to boot) to kill civilians and overall cause unrest, then obviously pin the blame on the US and make a shit show, but in all honesty who cares outside of Venezuelans ? No one, at most countries would be annoyed at the new influx of immigrants and the humanitarian issues it causes.

But then again, consult the graph, nothing happened during the 2012 elections, nothing happened during the massive protests of 2014 and then 2017 and as expected (by anyone with a brain with neurons) nothing happened during the 2024 elections, not only are civilians scared shitless due to a complete lack of weapons, there is no real opposition on the political sense, just a bunch of fakes coasting on other countries by being the so called "opposition".

TLDR: Nothing has happened and nothing will happen, oh and the "opposition" should be executed as the traitors they are.
 
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