Why does everyone keep saying this is a big win for Israel?
Assad was both ineffective and hated, and he needed propping up by both Russia and Iran, just to survive. Now they've got Turkey-backed """former""" ISIS as neighbors instead. Sure, maybe al-Golani himself is not ISIS, but what about his horde of headchoppers? They are already posting shit about moving on to Jerusalem. Also what does a man who comes from the Golan and used al-Golani as his nom de guerre really think about Israel occupying to Golan heights?
The Kurds are supposed to be an ally in this shit cauldron, and now they are getting raped by Turkey and the rebels. Deir ez-Zor was retaken in what, 3 days? Kobani looks like it's next. Once the rebels are done there, where are they gonna turn next?
Sure, there's no more land corridor for Iran to supply Hezbollah, but those guys are pretty fucking dead already.
Looks like Russia is gonna keep their port, and all that without having to deal with a fucking retard in Assad.
Is a mountain next to Damascus, no matter how strategic, worth all this shit?
The biggest winner here is Turkey. I am unable to describe just how massive of a win this is for the Turkroach especially since the new powers that be in Syria have turned on SDF. Just completely roach domination.
The next big winner is Israel.
So here's what Israel is getting out of this.
For DECADES Syria has been a constant thorn in Israel's side. The last Israeli aircraft loss was due to Syrian SAMs. There were a threat Israel couldn't do anything about because - even if we ignore all the other issues of one country invading another - Turkey wouldn't stand for it, and Iraq wouldn't either. Assad was also not the worst neighbor, in that his highly paranoid and rabid security apparatus kept any "third parties" from appearing.
Syria was allied with Iran, funder & armorer of most of Israel's least favorite Arab social clubs. Assad was also a Baathist and had to give at minimum lip-service to pan-Arab nationalism. But Iran used Syria as a safe staging ground for command and control of the terrorist groups they controlled, primarily Hamas & Hezbollah. Becasue Iran would send guys to Syria on official diplomatic missions to secretly meet with Palestinians, Israel was limited in being able to hit the Iranians.
Syria used to own some mountains, the Golan, that possession gave them ability to rain artillery down on Israel. Israel took highest part the Golan Heights in the 1967 6-days war and defended them fiercely in 1971 Yom Kippur war. But while there is a UN-watched buffer zone between the two countries' forces, Syria has mountainous territory that could be used to attack an area that is vital for Israel's security.
There's some shit to add about the USSR and the Mideast security situation in the 70s and 80s but I'll skip because the details aren't important anymore, but what this all adds up to was Assad had small state he governed with an iron first, and said small state had strategic weapons well outside of its size or global importance.
This was tolerated by Israel because anyone who replaced him was certain to be worse. Better the Lawful Evil devil yo know, etc.
Anyway, that's the background.
So here is how Israel comes out as the #2 winner.
First, They have taken even more terrority in the Golan. Not just one mountain (though that got some headlines) They have taken a bunch of other key security areas in the Golan. This means Israel's hold on the Golan is more secure.
Some of these areas also control mountain backroads into/out of Lebanon. These were used heavily by Iran to supply Hamas/Hezbollah, and now they are gone or reduced.
Second, the new guys are Sunni and HATE Iran. They view Iran as directly responsible for Assad being in power. Iran isn't going to be able to Syria as a staging or meeting ground anymore. They can't just meet with their pet terrorists with official cover anymore. This is going be massive, especially with Hezbollah's comms being rat fucked to ridiculous levels due to how deep Israel was inside their org.
Now, there is some question as if the new Syrian leaders will run as tight of a ship as Assad did (spoiler: unlikely) so Iran will likely still be able to use Syrian territory, but its going to be much, much harder with much greater consequences if they are caught.
Third, they have removed nearly all of Syria's stategic weapons. They couldn't do this before because paranoid Assad would have chimped out if they were hit and might have done something very rash. But with him leaving the country there was no more hand near the button. This means even if Allie Joe decides "Actually I was kidding, Assad was right about the Jews, Fuck the Jews for ever" and nothing else actually changes, there no more ballistic missiles (which might or might not be armed with chemical warheads) that will come raining down into Israel, and no Mach 2.5 capable fighterbombers that could maybe suicide run Jerusalem.
Fourth, the new powers that be at Turkroach puppets, but they have said they want to be a Islamic global player. They don't want to be a pariah, they want international aid, world bank loans, the whole thing. This means that Israel has a neighbor they can just control via money. Let the Turks worry about actual security, Israel can buy businessmen and politicians.
I think the biggest factor there is Israel beating the absolute shit out of Hezbollah in the last year. There is never going to be the same level of preparedness and organization, Iran arms shipments or not. The weirdos in Israel do want southern Lebanon to get back the Kingdom of David borders, but if Israel really set their mind on it, Hezbollah was always gonna be just an inconvenience post-2024.
Also don't forget Soleimani getting ice'd on his way to the airport in 2020. That put Iran off balance and up the chain of events that lead to Hezbollah getting all their dicks blown off by explosive pagers.
of such a statement.
