2024 Syrian opposition offensives - The first Syrian rebel offensive against Government forces since March 2020

[A Cardboard Box]

Israel committed genocide.

I personally disagree, and the jury is still out, but I do agree generally that Israel is run by theocratic cunts that generally have no value for human life that isn't Jewish. That has nothing to do with what I said previously though.

I thought self-determination of people was a fundamental rule. So not making some pathway for Pridnestrovia to join Russia is itself a rule violation.

This is a complex issue that genuinely does have nuance and significant evidence for either side, which is to say, any debate here would be both hopelessly off topic and inconclusive. I'm a historian, not a politician. We can simply agree to disagree on the Prednestrovia question.

In other, on topic news:
New statement by HTS, additionally, the head of the Jesuit refugee assistance program in Syria made a statement, and brings a little confidence. He says that the general feeling is one of uncertainty, but that HTS has approved Christmas decorations and nativity scenes in Aleppo, and has assurances from HTS that they will not restrict Christian services, including church bells, or public displays of faith. He said additionally that HTS has sent some fighters to provide security for their food distribution center and have provided sizeable donations of supplies to be handed out.

I remain fairly skeptical, as I'm sure most of us do, but, at least for the moment, Julani seems to be playing ball.

 

[a sniggering niggard]

The Order is obviously not rules based. Israel committed genocide. That is a major "rule" violation.

 

[Fuck Bankers]

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bombing schools, homes, and hospitals, and not letting civilians leave is a genocide. That article was talking about the conservative figures of loss of civilian life.

 

[a sniggering niggard]

bombing schools, homes, and hospitals, and not letting civilians leave is a genocide. That article was talking about the conservative figures of loss of civilian life.

Are we just making shit up now? That's not anywhere in the UN definition of genocide, never mind the fact that Israel targets civilian sites deliberately used by Hamas to launch missiles, which in itself is a war crime. But let's not derail the thread.

 

[Fuck Bankers]

Are we just making shit up now? That's not anywhere in the UN definition of genocide, never mind the fact that Israel targets civilian sites deliberately used by Hamas to launch missiles, which in itself is a war crime. But let's not derail the thread.

you're right let's not derail the thread.

Article II
In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

1. Killing members of the group;
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

This definition from your link doesn't remind me of anyone.

 

[a sniggering niggard]

I encourage anyone who thinks al-Golani or HTS can be reasoned with, to watch this documentary. Sure PBS is normie shit, but you get to see the man speak for himself, as well as some testimonies. He is a straight up Salafist headchopper, blessed with a good survival instinct and a dose of pragmatism, which makes him a lot more dangerous. He's got the Hamas/Hezbo playbook of providing people the most basic necessities and torturing a few here and there to keep them from outright rebelling, but where do you think the rest of the money goes? He doesn't look like the type to enrich himself a la Arafat or Nasrallah, so it's gonna be guns, lots of them.

Also he is not gonna repeat the mistakes that ISIS had made. As soon as ISIS became some semblance of a real regional power, the US (and whoever tagged along for the ride) crushed it like a bug. I would argue that US/Israel are always gonna be his no. 1 targets, once he has the capacity to hit them.

 

[Fuck Bankers]

I encourage anyone who thinks al-Golani or HTS can be reasoned with, to watch this documentary. Sure PBS is normie shit, but you get to see the man speak for himself, as well as some testimonies. He is a straight up Salafist headchopper, blessed with a good survival instinct and a dose of pragmatism, which makes him a lot more dangerous. He's got the Hamas/Hezbo playbook of providing people the most basic necessities and torturing a few here and there to keep them from outright rebelling, but where do you think the rest of the money goes? He doesn't look like the type to enrich himself a la Arafat or Nasrallah, so it's gonna be guns, lots of them.

Also he is not gonna repeat the mistakes that ISIS had made. As soon as ISIS became some semblance of a real regional power, the US (and whoever tagged along for the ride) crushed it like a bug. I would argue that US/Israel are always gonna be his no. 1 targets, once he has the capacity to hit them.

Israel striking those military depots might cause him to double cross them. However Israel taking that land will prevent him from sending weapons to Lebanon. I doubt he will take weapons from Iran. on the other hand, at this point the Shina-Sunni beef might be squashed, who knows what could happen.

 

[A Cardboard Box]

I would argue that US/Israel are always gonna be his no. 1 targets, once he has the capacity to hit them.

Extraordinarily doubtful, for all of the reasons I've mentioned previously. He is a hardcore Salafist, but the entire reason he split from AQ and immediately fought a war against ISIS is specifically because of his opinion that Israel and the US are just distractions from the real enemy of Iran and Iran's proxies.

Israel striking those military depots might cause him to double cross them. However Israel taking that land will prevent him from sending weapons to Lebanon. I doubt he will take weapons from Iran. on the other hand, at this point the Shina-Sunni beef might be squashed, who knows what could happen.

Julani hates Iran so, so fucking much. He absolutely is not going to arm Hezbollah and he's not going to take handouts from Iran.

 

[Abowaffen]

I am cautiously optimistic about this new technocrat prime minister, Mohammed Al-Bashir. Seems like he really is an experienced technocrat reformist.

You can rate me , but I have a good feeling. We will just have to wait and see.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

I am cautiously optimistic about this new technocrat prime minister, Mohammed Al-Bashir. Seems like he really is an experienced technocrat reformist.

These guys have been running their own government separate from Assad for several years now (over a decade in the earliest rebel-held areas) and that makes a big difference especially if they don't go nuts purging the existing Assad infrastructure. This situation will turn out much better than Libya, that's one thing I'll say for sure.

 

[A Cardboard Box]

I am cautiously optimistic about this new technocrat prime minister, Mohammed Al-Bashir. Seems like he really is an experienced technocrat reformist.
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You can rate me , but I have a good feeling. We will just have to wait and see.

Same. Al-Bashir is a good compromise candidate in my opinion. People focus on the fact that he has a degree in Sharia Law, but his actual career is in electrical engineering. It's my opinion that he picked someone with a Sharia Law degree to appeal to his Salafist base. More importantly, the guy is not a soldier, which I think says more than anything else. If you look at other countries that became failed states after a civil war or revolution, the first thing after the rebels win is instal either a religious leader or a soldier of some kind, whereas Julani explicitly picked someone with no military background and no ties to religious leadership.

Again, I am still reserved, but I, too, am cautiously optimistic. The outreach to the Christians, the cabinet picks, and the announcement of election planning has me really, genuinely hoping that they stay the course and can build something better.

ETA: I think the US has a lot of leverage here right now, and can make a significant impact in the formation of the new government. I think it's very reasonable that the US could, in exchange for security and human rights guarantees, remove the terrorist designation and, over time, release funds originally owned by the Assad government but frozen during the war. Additionally, removing the terrorist designation would allow for American and European investment and allow the access to low interest rebuilding and development loans. Most importantly, however, it would allow Syrian oil to be sold on the open market, which would be a boon to both Syria and the West.

I should be clear though, this should be done in stages, and only after HTS provides guarantees and meets commitments.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Actually it reminds me of a passage I read in a book where a presumed Jewish elder boasts about the stupidity and short sightedness of the goyim. Its a famous pamphlet. The connection is thematic, not causative.

So this your theory. Israel and Turkey orchestrated a perfect GlowOp. The Russians were okay with this GlowOp, and convinced Assad to just give up.

Your source is? Oh yeah.



And the last three pages of this thread have been people assailing your bastion of faith based upon your fantasies and random telegram posts by other similarly deranged individuals. What a shocking waste of time.

 

[Ishtar]

Wasn't there a similar appointment of technocrats and initial pitches at unity and rejuvenation in Libya and Sudan as well?

Jolani is clearly media savvy-either due to his own intellect, or his handlers cleaning him up for the camera. He's saying all the right things, hitting all the right notes, and knows clearly what western audiences are most convinced by.

Every other Arab Spring country-has ended overall in failure. I see no reason why this pattern should change. Even if Syrian jihadists are much more conscious of international PR than they were six or ten years ago.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

Same. Al-Bashir is a good compromise candidate in my opinion. People focus on the fact that he has a degree in Sharia Law, but his actual career is in electrical engineering. It's my opinion that he picked someone with a Sharia Law degree to appeal to his Salafist base.

Another thing to keep in mind is Sharia already had substantial influence on family law in Syria. Keep in mind this can cover a lot of different areas including inheritance, marriage, child custody and so on - it really is a very comprehensive legal system and one Muslims in Syria are already familiar with.

They're not going to remove that element of the legal system when it's already built in and widely accepted, so having someone with that background is very helpful.

 

[Ishtar]

So this your theory. Israel and Turkey orchestrated a perfect GlowOp. The Russians were okay with this GlowOp, and convinced Assad to just give up.

Your source is? Oh yeah.

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And the last three pages of this thread have been people assailing your bastion of faith based upon your fantasies and random telegram posts by other similarly deranged individuals. What a shocking waste of time.

That's literally not what I said. At all.

Bad faith.

There is clearly a concerted effort to browbeat the public into uncritically cheering for the Syrian opposition. On twitter and on fora such as this one. I'm not sure what's fantastical about anything I've said.

Maybe it really just is mass conformity and herd behavior, or maybe NGO spooks are engaging in information warfare on this thread.

I've noted none of the people arguing with me, have said anything substantive. Just attacking me for referring to an Iranian telegram channel, and for...saying the Jews are profiting from the situation. No argument, just attempted ostracization and Alinskyite isolation tactics.

 

[mindlessobserver]

That's literally not what I said. At all.

Bad faith.

There is clearly a concerted effort to browbeat the public into uncritically cheering for the Syrian opposition. On twitter and on fora such as this one. I'm not sure what's fantastical about anything I've said.

Maybe it really just is mass conformity and herd behavior, or maybe NGO spooks are engaging in information warfare on this thread.

I've noted none of the people arguing with me, have said anything substantive. Just attacking me for referring to an Iranian telegram channel, and for...saying the Jews are profiting from the situation. No argument, just attempted ostracization and Alinskyite isolation tactics.

How is it bad faith? You are on here literally arguing what happened in Syria is a Joo plot. Israel taking advantage of Syria's collapse is not surprising. They would be idiots not too, but you need to do better then just say "this is just like the protocols of the Elders of Zion and some pamphlet I red about a Rabbi mocking Goyim". To make this conspiracy theory that everything in Syria is going according to Netenyahu's plots after he wrote Assads name in the Death Note.

That works on /pol/ where threads are populated by Anons and die after a couple of hours. Everyone here in this thread are Pseudanons, with User Handles. This thread will also persist forever. You've made some really bold claims. But you are not backing them up with anything.

 

[Fuck Bankers]

That's literally not what I said. At all.

Bad faith.

There is clearly a concerted effort to browbeat the public into uncritically cheering for the Syrian opposition. On twitter and on fora such as this one. I'm not sure what's fantastical about anything I've said.

Maybe it really just is mass conformity and herd behavior, or maybe NGO spooks are engaging in information warfare on this thread.

I've noted none of the people arguing with me, have said anything substantive. Just attacking me for referring to an Iranian telegram channel, and for...saying the Jews are profiting from the situation. No argument, just attempted ostracization and Alinskyite isolation tactics.

To be fair, @a sniggering niggard seems to be both pro-Israel and anti-Julani.

@mindlessobserver
It does seem like Israeli Jews and NATO powers including but not limited to the US and Turkey are funding and promoting Al-Julani.

 

[Ishtar]

How is it bad faith? You are on here literally arguing what happened in Syria is a Joo plot. Israel taking advantage of Syria's collapse is not surprising. They would be idiots not too, but you need to do better then just say "this is just like the protocols of the Elders of Zion and some pamphlet I red about a Rabbi mocking Goyim" to make this conspiracy theory of Everything that happened in Syria is going according to Netenyahu's plots after he wrote Assads name in the Death Note.

I never claimed it was a Jew plot you fucking retard-I said the infighting and short sightedness reminded me of the Protocols and other such literature-"you know I'm reminded of antisemitic conspiracy literature where Jews say the goyim are stupid and short sighted, given the Syrian rebels seem to lack any desire or wherewithal to oppose Israel occupying their country kinda shows that literature was saying something true"-its making a connection, not claiming a conspiracy. Reminded, REMINDED being the damned key word.

That works on /pol/ where threads are populated by Anonsm die after a couple of hours, and fall into a black hole. Everyone here in this thread are Pseudanons, with User Handles. This thread will also persist forever. You've made some really bold claims. But you are not backing them up with anything.

I have stated elsewhere in this thread, what seems to have caused the rebel victory.

Assad's patrons weakened
Rot in the SAA
Rebels got training and new gear
demoralization

Not once did I say "jews caused this"

Anyone can go back the last five pages and confirm that for themselves.

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

you're right let's not derail the thread.

Article II
In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

1. Killing members of the group;
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

This definition from your link doesn't remind me of anyone.

Palestinians aren't a unique ethnic group. They're Arabs. What the Turks are doing to the Kurds will fill point 3. Also, the Israelis haven't made it their mission to destroy all of Palestine despite what people online and some right-wing retards might say. At worst, you can say the Israelis' are incompetent, which, sure, is a case to be made, but it does not make it a genocide. If that were the case, there would be no Arabs in Israel proper despite their having a robust culture and free status within Israeli society. Remember, article 2 was all done to prevent the holocaust from happening again.

1. Killing members of the group; - Death camps and esnegroupen
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; Death camps, Jewish ghettos which were done to separate Jews from their fellow citizens, also kristalnach
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part - Destroying Synaugags and other Jewish institutions to prevent them from praying. also outlawing their ability to practice religion
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;- Forced sterlization of Jews
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group. -This didn't happen as much with the Jews (because they were killed) but it happened with Poles and Russians.

No one is stopping the people living in Gaza from practicing their religion; no one is burning their Qurans or killing Palestinians for being Palestinian. No one is destorying their mosques because they are just mosques. No one is forcing their children away from them. But you know who does all these things you claim to care about? The Palestinians. against the Jews and all non Muslims.

1. Killing members of the group; - They promote killing Jews wherever they are
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; They hold hostages and torture them, these hostages are only their because they are Jewish. They also kill Christians because they don't practice islam
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part - Destroying Synagogs in the west bank, the Gaza strip, destorying churches or using them as military bases. Banning all Jewish and Christian holidays
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; - Denying Christians health care and prioritizing Muslim births.
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group. - Hamas did this with some children captured on Oct 7th; they also forced the hostages to live with nonmilitants and have been known to do this to Christian Arabs.

If you care so much about genocide why aren't you crying about the Christian one?

 

[A Cardboard Box]

Every other Arab Spring country-has ended overall in failure

Nigger you what? This is a lie, point blank. The Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia was widely hailed as a total success. Similarly, the Moroccan constitutional reforms of 2012 were massively successful. In Bahrain the government established the BICI which wrote an absolutely scathing review of the government and its repression of civil rights, to which the government responded by implementing the vast majority of their recommendations. In Kuwait, the protesters managed to get the corrupt PM to resign and the holding of snap elections. Even in Jordan, the Arab Spring led to the king appointing Abdullah Ensour as PM, who served for four years, 2012-2016, and under him the economy did very well, with economic growth never dropping below two percent and reaching as high as four percent in 2014.

The whole "Arab Spring was a failure" line is a meme. The three losers were Iraq, Libya, and Syria, and the collapse of Iraq and Syria can be primarily attributed to Iranian meddling.

Syrian jihadists

You know what I'm going to say, and yet I know you won't address the point, just like every time before. "Jihadist" is a blanket term used by retards that don't understand granularity. It is a box you put people in that way you don't have to actually spend brain power understanding them. HTS is not Hezbollah. HTS is not ISIS. HTS is not AQ.

It does seem like Israeli Jews and NATO powers including but not limited to the US and Turkey are funding and promoting Al-Julani.

Absolutely fucking not. The only NATO member supporting HTS is Turkey. Again, as of right now, as we sit here, HTS is a terror organization designed by the United States and if you tried to give them money you would go to fucking prison for providing material aid to a foreign terror organization. There is literally no evidence that the US or Israel is supporting Julani beyond people saying "The Jews did this," with absolutely no evidence whatsoever.

the Syrian rebels

Which of the hundreds of rebel groups are you referring to?