2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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heyitsmike dijo:
Who is this source with only 136 followers?

And a domestic violence charge would be state, not federal.

This... something isn't right here.
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If I were to guess, maybe she was picked up by state or local authorities for a domestic violence call and then the Feds met her at the local precinct to bring her in on federal charges.

Assuming this is real and not just a grift, it's quite possible that she's being hammered with both state and federal charges at the same time. The domestic violence would be state level, but other elements could be federal charges depending on the context.
 
Syaoran Li dijo:
If I were to guess, maybe she was picked up by state or local authorities for a domestic violence call and then the Feds met her at the local precinct to bring her in on federal charges.

Assuming this is real and not just a grift, it's quite possible that she's being hammered with both state and federal charges at the same time. The domestic violence would be state level, but other elements could be federal charges depending on the context.
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That's not what the tweet says though. It lists four charges on a federal indictment. Domestic violence on a secret indictment?

And let's say the domestic charges are in fact state and the rest federal. Wouldn't they get arrested on the same day as the domestic violence incident? Unless they beat each other a while back (which I haven't heard), and then went back to living together? If you go back to living together, wouldn't you have the charges dropped?

Lastly, your scenario would mean the feds were just sitting on the indictment, waiting. Waiting for what? So if not for a state charge they wouldn't have dropped theirs?

Yeah, this source's information doesn't feel right to me.
 
It would be nice if Donald Trump carries Washington state this year. This could be promising. Notable that the President wasn't on the primary ballot either (as Washington state had an election specifically for the presidential primary back in March).

A substantial surprise arose in the high-turnout August 4 Washington state primary. The Republicans are making a robust showing. They have pulled ahead in legislative races where they trailed on election night — reversing the usual late surge of liberal votes. One example is the 10th District (Whidbey-Camano-mainland), where Democratic Senate candidate Helen Price Johnson and Rep. Dave Paul have fallen behind their Republican opponents.

Jousting in Facebook posts, Washington State Young Democrats’ President Derek Richards attributes the mini-surge to Republicans making up their minds in the crowded gubernatorial contest. Richards predicts August 4 will be the “high water” mark for Republicans in Washington.

Anecdotal evidence from a long Whidbey weekend suggests another factor: Voters are wary of the street violence in Seattle and uncomfortable with relentless political attacks on Seattle Police, which has now driven popular Police Chief Carmen Best from office. Usually Seattle-bashing has flopped for Republicans. They even ran a TV spot showing the Lenin statue from Fremont, as part of a losing (and massively expensive) bid to hold State Senate control in a special election three years ago. Nor did Madison-bashing work for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in 2018, or Missoula-bashing for foes of Montana Sen. John Tester. But this time, with Seattle pushing the boundaries of progressive politics, voters are hesitant.

Elsewhere, Democratic legislators are trailing for two House seats (10th and 42nd Districts) captured from the GOP in 2018. A prominent Seattle basher, State Rep. Jim Walsh, took 57 percent of the vote in his Southwest Washington district, historic Democratic turf.

Republic, Wash., police chief Loren Culp won the Republican gubernatorial nomination, despite taking less than 10 percent of the vote in King County. He did surprisingly well elsewhere, winning Grays Harbor, Cowlitz, and Wahkaikum Counties in Southwest Washington. Jay Inslee, who has never been a rust belt Democrat, has managed to lose places carried once upon a time by George McGovern.

The Democrats’ marquee candidate for Congress, WSU-Vancouver Prof. Carolyn Long in the 3rd District, is at just 39.72 percent of the vote in her challenge to U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler. Long took more than 47 percent of the vote in 2018.

One factor might be voters seeking a check on Democrats. Washington voters have historically split their tickets. Sen. Warren Magnuson wiped out GOP Gov. Gov. Arthur Langlie in 1956, the year of the Eisenhower sweep when voters also elected Democrat Al Rosellini as Governor. In 1964, as a Lyndon Johnson landslide buried Barry Goldwater, Republican Dan Evans ousted Rosellini. Evans won reelection in 1968 as Hubert Humphrey was winning Washington. Democrat Booth Gardner was elected Governor in 1984 as Ronald Reagan became the last Republican presidential candidate to carry Washington.

State Rep. Norma Smith, R-Langley, used that theme of the need to check a dominant party in winning in 2018 after trailing in the primary. (Smith is not running this year.) Washington has experienced years of split control in the Legislature. We had special session after special session, and budget negotiations into late June. But the voters didn’t seem all that dissatisfied. Meanwhile, Gov. Inslee has won strong marks for his serious, science-rooted response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Inslee has, in words of one joke, put his goofiness in blind trust.

But that good feeling could be eroding, especially as Inslee seeks to be only our second governor (Dan Evans was the first) elected to three consecutive terms. Inslee spent much of last year out of state, campaigning for another job. He quit the presidential race and quickly shoved aside potential Democratic challengers.

His gubernatorial opponent is Loren Culp, a symbol of resistance who has refused to enforce I-1639, the gun safety measure passed by Washington voters in 2018. Culp held a largely mask-less rally in Plain, north of Leavenworth, on election night. So did Tim Eyman, given a sound drubbing on the first time he put his name onto the ballot.

Seattle is not an attractive model for unchecked, one-party rule these days. The city has experienced non-stop demonstrations. Motorists approaching downtown on I-5 became used to the Saturday night warnings of freeway closures occasioned by protesters on the roadway. We experienced the Capitol Hill occupied zone, with shootings and thuggery and mistreatment of small business owners.

The protests over the George Floyd murder have been overwhelmingly peaceful. But there has been violence. The city’s left political activists (mainly white) have refused to denounce the violent few, and have heaped abuse on the Seattle Police. A trio of Democratic district organizations have passed wacko-bird resolutions calling for removal of Mayor Jenny Durkan.

The City Council has stumbled in its efforts to cut the Seattle Police Department, demonstrating lack of focus and inexperience. One folly was cutting the salary of a police chief who is African American, who is among the most popular figures in politics today and has just quit in apparent frustration. Another dubious move: eliminating navigation teams assigned to coax homeless from their tent encampments.

O.K., we could still see a Democratic sweep in November. A huge King County majority should sustain Inslee and Biden, just as a half-million-vote county victory carried the day for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

But the rest of the state was cool to Democrats four years ago. And there’s at least some reason to think that the Republicans are strengthening their holds on the regions not directly visible from atop the Space Needle.
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Trump once said "they aren't sending their best, folks."

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I'm starting to worry that they are.


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Basically, there's a small Kansas region where some leftypol troll that masturbates himself to sleep at night watching Breadtube might win a DNC primary and, whoops, the GOP didn't even fucking bother to show up, meaning Kansas might have to put up with a leftypol shithead in their house. Might make for some good campaign ads in the region.
 
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JongleJingle dijo:
So, on the off chance that Biden dies before the election, would Kamala Harris take his place? Or would the dems have to scrable for a new electee?
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Someone made a post about this ealier in the thread. Pretty much. Unless Biden somehow dies in the half hour between when the electoral college votes and Congress unlocks the box to count the electoral votes. But that is uncharted territory.

Bass dijo:
It all depends on what stage of the election cycle he dies in.

Scenario no. 1:
If he were to do right now, before the convention, all the Biden delegates still go to the convention pledged to Biden. Technically they take the vote and, well, oops we can't nominate a dead man. (They could skip this step, nobody would cry foul, but according to the DNC bylaws no delegates are unbound until after the first vote,. Not even the Superdelegates.) So it goes to a second round with all the Biden delegates "unbound", meaning they can vote for whoever they want, but in reality they are being wrangled by the state leafers, and we have the much vaunted brokered election, where it could be anybody. Much horse trading and backroom stuff.

There's also the business of the VP. Since right now Biden hasn't announced his VP choice yet, this also would probably be settled duing the bargaining phase of the brokered convention. I'll throw my states votes your way for a VP spot. That kind of thing. This stays true even if Bid n had announced a pick. The VP has to be voted on and nominated by the convention just lik the president, so an announced pick pre convention probably wouldn't hold up. Too many deals to be made.

Scenario no. 2:

Biden made it to the convention, got nominated, a VP pick was made, and then he died.
This one really sucks for the VP.

At this point the ballot in November is going to say Joe Biden for president no matter what, but the VP is going to have to do all the campaigning by themselves. Let's say somehow the Democrats win the general election. It goes to the electoral college as usual. The vote happens as usual. Now it all depends on if the DNC has their shit together or not. If they do have I together, they've made it clear to the Biden electors to all vote for the same person. If they do, good whoever gets the most votes is the president elect. If they don't, and you have enough random votes that go every where then whoever got the most votes is president elect...which would be Trump. Then repeat the process for VP as usual.

This sucks for the VP pick because there is no guarantee for them that the DNC would give the order to elect the VP vote to the president vote. There's not even a guarantee that they'd keep the VP pick as VP. There's also there is also a possibility that if they don't keep it together that you end up with Pence remaining VP to a democratic president. They don't open the ballot box there you see, and there's no do overs. The box stays locked until a joint session of Congress unlocks it and counts the votes. All that matters is who gets the most votes in the box for each office.

Scenario 3:

Biden lives long enough to win the general election, but dies before the Electoral college meets:

Same as scenario 2, but the VP is probably in a better position to "move up a spot" due to the optics involved

Scenario 4:

Joe Biden somehow dies in the half hour between when the electoral college votes and Congress unlocks the box:

This is the only spot where a constitutional crisis would occur. My best guess would be that Congress pretends like they didn't hear anything and we proceed to scenario 5. Otherwise the supreme Court is going to have to sort this one out. Since Biden won the EC, but Trump is the highest vote getting living candidate, but the Dem VP is VP elect. Either way Pence is out of a job.

Scenario 5:

Biden dies between the Congressional vote count and the inauguration:

This one is simple. At this point the VP has the magic word "elect", and this makes all the difference. The VP elect would become president elect, and we proceed as normal, with the VP spot vacant until the new president submits a name to the Senate for approval. The VP is vacant until the Senate says yes.

Note: in this case Biden isn't posthumously inaugurated or anything like that. No asterisks or the like the VP elect goes straight to the White House.

Also in every scenario expect like a bazillion court challenges, but this is the way it should pan out, barring a retarded Hawaiian judge getting involved or something like that.
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There are more swing states that some here realize. There's not as many as there were in 2016, but still quite a bit. Keep in mind I consider swing states as those that have a shot of voting either blue or red this year.

These are the swing states,

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Maine at large
Maine 2nd Congressional District
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska 2nd Congressional District
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin

Previous swing states Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, and Iowa are no longer as such. Colorado and New Mexico have too many liberals and Hispanics to turn the tide for this election, especially with Gary Johnson no longer around. Likewise, I expect Ohio and Iowa to become reliable red states in the future. Anyone expecting Texas to turn blue is delusional as there are still enough Hispanics voting Republican there to turn the tide. That means both Trump and Biden have more safe states than last election. This year has no new swing states.

Trump needs to defend Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maine's 2nd Congressional District, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, and North Carolina. Fortunately, I am optimistic that most of the will stay red this election. Trump is polling well in North Carolina, Georgia, and Maine's 2nd Congressional District and I think he'll keep Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District too. The real concerns are Arizona and Florida.

Both have a high Hispanic population and Arizona's Hispanics for the most part don't vote Republican. Florida has a higher percentage of Hispanic Republican but that is because of the Cuban population which are currently swing voters. My gut feeling says Arizona will stay red though that might be because Biden is not too far up in the polls (ahead 2.0 as of August 14th on RealClearPolitics). Trump needs to do whatever he can to keep these states because if he loses even one of these states, it will be nearly impossible to make ground up. If he loses Florida, the curtain has closed on his administration. In fact, I would argue that it will be the tipping point state that decides the election because 29 electoral votes is a significant amount.

From there, if Trump can successfully defend all of these states, he has to then defend one of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. All of these are trending blue this election and I would not be shocked if all of them went blue to be honest. If he wins even one, he wins the election. If he loses one, then he has to pick up a state with ten electoral votes or higher.

Potential pick-ups for Trump are Maine at-large, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. The thing is, Maine at-large, New Hampshire, and Virginia are not likely at all to turn red. Both Maine at-large and Virginia poll double digit leads and New Hampshire is close to it too. The only reason Virginia has a shot is because of its governor trying to strip away the right to bear arms but don't hold your breathe for it and even if it does, it will only be a one-time thing. I've heard Nevada had record registrations among GOP but we'll see if that amounts to anything. Right now, I think it will turn blue but my prediction might change once we see more polling.

But I think Minnesota has a decent shot of turning red. The riots have damaged Minneapolis's economy for years to come. When Minnesotan voters turn out to vote, do you think the riots and violent protests will get swing voters to think "Yeah, we need a man with dementia and a authoritarian Californian prosecutor in office"? No. Some might decide to sit out, but it will not convince people to vote blue. Not to mention the state has been trending progressively redder since last decade. Clinton won the state by less than 2%, but the disastrous effects of the riots might be what pushes it over. I think it will be the one state Trump manages to flip, and it's the one I want to see flip the most. Minnesota has been the state the most consistently voted Democratic in presidential election since 1960, voting only for Nixon in 1972. The Republicans have an opportunity to turn the state into a reddish-purple state while people are willing to listen to alternative options and they would be wise to do so.

Trump needs to go all in on Arizona, Florida, and Minnesota. The first two are needed to win the election and the latter is a potential Republican-leaning state like Ohio and Iowa are turning out to be. From there, defending either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania or picking up Nevada will also help Trump since you can bet there will be unfaithful electoral voters who will try to throw him out of office. 2020 is down to the wire and for once, we can say this could decide the course of America going forward.

Here is my current prediction map,

2020-08-15 (3).png


Should note that Florida should really be a toss-up state since unlike Arizona or Minnesota, I can't say I lean either way with that state. The "Lean Red" is purely out of my bias. I give it 50/50 on Florida. Arizona and Minnesota are more like 60% Trump, 40% Biden.
legalkochi dijo:
It would be nice if Donald Trump carries Washington state this year. This could be promising. Notable that the President wasn't on the primary ballot either (as Washington state had an election specifically for the presidential primary back in March).
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He won't carry Washington this year, that's for sure. We could, however, see both Washington and Oregon turn redder this year as a result of the riot, but we won't see flips from either states. The only state that could potentially flip red because is Minnesota and that's because Trump got pretty close to getting it last time. I'd say Virginia but that's also unlikely and if it does flip, it will be because of what happened when the governor tried to take all of the guns away. Plus I'm not recalling any riots that happened in the city but I also don't have the list of riots on hand.

In fact, I can see the coastal Western states - even California (given Harris's record in representing them will turn some of them off) - all vote redder this year but none of them will result in a flip. If that happens, it means Trump has less room to lose in the popular vote and still win the Electoral College.
 
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heyitsmike dijo:
Who is this source with only 136 followers?

And a domestic violence charge would be state, not federal.

This... something isn't right here.
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That guy said he called Portage Sheriff department.
No idea who he is but after I saw it I called. Both her and her husband are there.

annoyingfuck dijo:
RE: Millie Weaver. Domestic violence doesn't always mean husband on wife/wife on husband. It might not even be family related, although labelling it 'domestic' would be unusual I'd think.
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Here’s the thing: there’s no distinction on who’s charged with what. Police wouldn’t confirm. They only said they’re both there, these are the charges, it will be unsealed at arraignment. They don’t even know the details
 
Someone Awful dijo:
There are more swing states that some here realize. There's not as many as there were in 2016, but still quite a bit. Keep in mind I consider swing states as those that have a shot of voting either blue or red this year.

These are the swing states,

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Maine at large
Maine 2nd Congressional District
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska 2nd Congressional District
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin

Previous swing states Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, and Iowa are no longer as such. Colorado and New Mexico have too many liberals and Hispanics to turn the tide for this election, especially with Gary Johnson no longer around. Likewise, I expect Ohio and Iowa to become reliable red states in the future. Anyone expecting Texas to turn blue is delusional as there are still enough Hispanics voting Republican there to turn the tide. That means both Trump and Biden have more safe states than last election. This year has no new swing states.

Trump needs to defend Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maine's 2nd Congressional District, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, and North Carolina. Fortunately, I am optimistic that most of the will stay red this election. Trump is polling well in North Carolina, Georgia, and Maine's 2nd Congressional District and I think he'll keep Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District too. The real concerns are Arizona and Florida.

Both have a high Hispanic population and Arizona's Hispanics for the most part don't vote Republican. Florida has a higher percentage of Hispanic Republican but that is because of the Cuban population which are currently swing voters. My gut feeling says Arizona will stay red though that might be because Biden is not too far up in the polls (ahead 2.0 as of August 14th on RealClearPolitics). Trump needs to do whatever he can to keep these states because if he loses even one of these states, it will be nearly impossible to make ground up. If he loses Florida, the curtain has closed on his administration. In fact, I would argue that it will be the tipping point state that decides the election because 29 electoral votes is a significant amount.

From there, if Trump can successfully defend all of these states, he has to then defend one of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. All of these are trending blue this election and I would not be shocked if all of them went blue to be honest. If he wins even one, he wins the election. If he loses one, then he has to pick up a state with ten electoral votes or higher.

Potential pick-ups for Trump are Maine at-large, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. The thing is, Maine at-large, New Hampshire, and Virginia are not likely at all to turn red. Both Maine at-large and Virginia poll double digit leads and New Hampshire is close to it too. The only reason Virginia has a shot is because of its governor trying to strip away the right to bear arms but don't hold your breathe for it and even if it does, it will only be a one-time thing. I've heard Nevada had record registrations among GOP but we'll see if that amounts to anything. Right now, I think it will turn blue but my prediction might change once we see more polling.

But I think Minnesota has a decent shot of turning red. The riots have damaged Minneapolis's economy for years to come. When Minnesotan voters turn out to vote, do you think the riots and violent protests will get swing voters to think "Yeah, we need a man with dementia and a authoritarian Californian prosecutor in office"? No. Some might decide to sit out, but it will not convince people to vote blue. Not to mention the state has been trending progressively redder since last decade. Clinton won the state by less than 2%, but the disastrous effects of the riots might be what pushes it over. I think it will be the one state Trump manages to flip, and it's the one I want to see flip the most. Minnesota has been the state the most consistently voted Democratic in presidential election since 1960, voting only for Nixon in 1972. The Republicans have an opportunity to turn the state into a reddish-purple state while people are willing to listen to alternative options and they would be wise to do so.

Trump needs to go all in on Arizona, Florida, and Minnesota. The first two are needed to win the election and the latter is a potential Republican-leaning state like Ohio and Iowa are turning out to be. From there, defending either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania or picking up Nevada will also help Trump since you can bet there will be unfaithful electoral voters who will try to throw him out of office. 2020 is down to the wire and for once, we can say this could decide the course of America going forward.

Here is my current prediction map,

Ver archivo adjunto 1521661He won't carry Washington this year, that's for sure. We could, however, see both Washington and Oregon turn redder this year as a result of the riot, but we won't see flips from either states. The only state that could potentially flip red because is Minnesota and that's because Trump got pretty close to getting it last time. I'd say Virginia but that's also unlikely and if it does flip, it will be because of what happened when the governor tried to take all of the guns away. Plus I'm not recalling any riots that happened in the city but I also don't have the list of riots on hand.

In fact, I can see the coastal Western states - even California (given Harris's record in representing them will turn some of them off) - all vote redder this year but none of them will result in a flip. If that happens, it means Trump has less room to lose in the popular vote and still win the Electoral College.
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I expect WI and MI to go red this year. They have large white working class populations like OH and MI and they have a large Blue Dog Democratic base, which is more in line with Trump and whatever he's doing than Biden, despite him being form a white working class background. You have to remember that Biden was one of the people that screwed over the Blue Dogs in the 80s and his running mate (who people know there's a real possibility of being president seeing that he has obvious problems with dementia) isn't white, which frankly is a minus for people of this background. That's one of the reasons why I say Buttigieg would have been a better VP (despite still objectively being shit). At least he could of ran on his policies to some degree and he's not a bad debater, just gay and unenthusiastic. Plus, he manages to shit on the GOP for not caring about the debt and things people of a more fiscally conservative background would like. Kamala only has the lack of enthusiasm of Buttboy . In fact, if there's one thing I'm certain of, it's that Trump has basically given the Republicans the Rustbelt (or rather the Democrats have by their lack of attention to working class issues during the Obama administration. The whole region was going redder from '08 to '12, meaning there's something of a shift in the alliances of the white working class in America.)
 
heyitsmike dijo:
The thing about Pennsylvania is that the feeling of betrayal is a powerful motivator and one of the few things that can instantly kill people's decades long sense of loyalty and good will.

Biden is originally from Pennsylvania. If Trump can successfully point at all the closed down and boarded up mills and factories and say, "Your native son was responsible for these places closing down with the trade deals he supported. Those steel mills went to China in exchange for money for his crackhead son. He's gonna do it again with your fracking jobs. He betrayed you once, he'll betray you twice."

How many people do you think know someone whose life fell apart when they lost their jobs after their steel mill closed?
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The reason why Trump won PA n 2016 is because of the Clinton campaign adopting Obama's plan about decimating jobs in favor of going green. "Those jobs aren't coming back," Obama said. Clinton showed her full support of this. Trump talked about wanting those jobs to come back.

If this were a less insane year, I'd say that Trump would have PA again. However, without a real ground game, all bets are off.
 
StarkRavingMad dijo:
The reason why Trump won PA n 2016 is because of the Clinton campaign adopting Obama's plan about decimating jobs in favor of going green. "Those jobs aren't coming back," Obama said. Clinton showed her full support of this. Trump talked about wanting those jobs to come back.

If this were a less insane year, I'd say that Trump would have PA again. However, without a real ground game, all bets are off.
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Actually, if what's going on right now in Michigan is any indication, the GOP is the only party with a ground game at the moment. The Dems seem to be focused on online stuff instead. https://www.mlive.com/public-intere...oor-as-polls-show-biden-with-strong-lead.html

I'd say that the Repubs will probably do this in Pennsylvania as well, but I don't know that for sure.
 
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Balion dijo:
Ver archivo adjunto 1521849
Imo, I think this result is a bit more realistic, although I'm not certainly sure about Oregon and Pennsylvania.
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Oregon has a couple factors that may tip it red, that being the current effort to recall the Governor and the shit storm that Portland has created.
Getting rid of the Governor has engergized the Republicans in Oregon, whether or not the recall goes through and becomes a special election or gets put on the November ballot will be a big factor it where the state goes.
Then portland has burned its last bridge with the moderate and right leaning parts of the state, support for the local governments handling of it is plummeting.

Then the Democratic Party of Oregon is so far left that the choice of Biden/Harris is going to depress some turnout, but not much because of the vote blue no matter who mentality that California has transplanted to the state.
 
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