2016 US Presidential Election Thread 2 - Always Darkest before Don

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What does he mean? I know Wilson is on McMillan's side...does he have some fresh dirt on Trump?
 
Null dijo:
If she does win the self-satisfied smug emanating from the Clinton drones will be disgusting. I can't even stomach the people on the forum who get giddy with excitement reading Nate Silver's latest self-aggrandizing bowel movement. I can't even trust a win from her because they've already found evidence of electronic tampering in Maryland and Illinois, but nothing is going to come out of it, just like how nothing came out of her foundation, her murders, her involvement in the middle east, and her handling of classified information.
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Cry me a river, bitch.

If it wasn't for you Trumptards foaming for the one candidate ruhtarded enough to lose to the least lïkable Democrat of the last one hundred years, she would've lost to the GOP going against Mr. Grainsiloes.

Null dijo:
Obama is a fucking moron intentionally sabotaging the country at this point by handing ICANN over to the United Nations and Clinton will continue to ruin things in that sense. I've decided if she does win I am moving the server over to Iceland and changing our domain permanently to .is, because I don't want anything to do with this country. I'll also probably move again. Seeing a chance at a Trump America helped me put my boots to the ground and start looking for work in the country because a faint flicker of hope and optimistic burned in me for a fraction of a second.
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Optimism.

For an info-warrior who believes vaccines cause autism.

Optimism.

For a trust-fund baby whose every business venture ends in failure even when the government legally prohibits competition.

Optimism.

For a Ba'athist sympathiser who didn't know Russia annex'd Crimea and invaded the Ukraine.

Optimism.

Not even once.

Null dijo:
I think that's the most disappointing thing of all seeing people like the autistic communist gloating about polls. I'm not pro-Trump because I love his fucking hair. I see him as a way to challenge the status quo which has involved us in constant war since I was old enough to understand what war was. I see him as a way of keeping people I quite like in the services alive until they can get out. I see him as a way to improve an economy which has never benefited me; the only job I've had in the US involved french fries and every real dollar came from overseas. I see him as a way to feel good about being who I am.
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Trump has repeatedly advocated for setting up a neo-colonial operation to take Iraqi oil. The military cost of such a venture would be extensive and perpetual. He's advocated for an extensive web of protectionism in the name of protecting jobs that have been renderd redundant for decades, even though cheap goods is the one thing keeping any kind of life in our nation's economy.

You were better off believing in your birthday candles.

Null dijo:
My entire life I've been told I can't say the word nigger and I owe shit to black people and I needn't use the word "fag" because someone might be offended and the entire world is slant against women and I have it so easy because of my cock. I just can't understand things because I'm a straight white man living in America, and all Americans are stupid, especially those without a degree.
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Nigga, your faggotry is gonna give you AIDS from masturbation at this rate.

Null dijo:
I caught less flak with a Nazi avatar openly quoting Hitler and Rommel than I did earnestly supporting Trump. I don't even know why. I don't support him because I hate Mexicans or some shit. People who like Trump more often than not just like their country and want to see good things come of it. They're willing to take a risk because they feel like they're staking something worth nothing for the chance of immense returns. We know what we'll get with Hillary and it's nothing good. Trump might be neo-Hitler or he might be the best president in recent memory. Maybe he'll flounder and get nothing done. There's a chance that he'll do good and there's not the faintest fucking hope that Clinton will do anything anyone will appreciate besides her owners.
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Of course you caught less flack.

Hitler could've actually won against Hillbot.
 
*Asterisk* dijo:
Cry me a river, bitch.

If it wasn't for you Trumptards foaming for the one candidate ruhtarded enough to lose to the least lïkable Democrat of the last one hundred years, she would've lost to the GOP going against Mr. Grainsiloes.


Optimism.

For an info-warrior who believes vaccines cause autism.

Optimism.

For a trust-fund baby whose every business venture ends in failure even when the government legally prohibits competition.

Optimism.

For a Ba'athist sympathiser who didn't know Russia annex'd Crimea and invaded the Ukraine.

Optimism.

Not even once.


Trump has repeatedly advocated for setting up a neo-colonial operation to take Iraqi oil. The military cost of such a venture would be extensive and perpetual. He's advocated for an extensive web of protectionism in the name of protecting jobs that have been renderd redundant for decades, even though cheap goods is the one thing keeping any kind of life in our nation's economy.

You were better off believing in your birthday candles.


Nigga, your faggotry is gonna give you AIDS from masturbation at this rate.


Of course you caught less flack.

Hitler could've actually won against Hillbot.
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I disagree with this.
 
I admit my past comment on this noise was pretty stupid as all fucking hell. Besides...
...Why the fucking hell would Hillary ever even want to go to war with these people???
 
Null dijo:
@*Asterisk*, you're on a mental level lower than TrippinKahula without any of the Forest Gump charm. I'm not going to read some huge wall of text from the forum champion of foreskins.
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Posts like this are the reason E&N needs "Optimistic" back, nigga.

Dynastia dijo:
I disagree with this.
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If he wasn't enough of a sped to think a man who can't spend less time on Twitter than Brianna Wu should have nuclear weapons, Dear Leader could learn from you.
 
Its happened again- The republican early vote has collapsed, this time in Florida

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/25/early-voting-in-florida-day-one.html
Democrats entered the day down after about 2 weeks of vote by mail returns (and about 1.2 million ballots) about 20,000 votes. This 1.7% GOP advantage compares to a GOP advantage of 5% in 2012.

Then early voting happened.

First, not all counties have reported yet (17 yet to report, most are small), but when all said and done, over 300,000 will have voted on day one. Just to put into scale, 1.2 million voted by mail in the first two weeks.

When you add in the mail ballots from yesterday, 22% of all the ballots cast in Florida were cast in person yesterday. That is a remarkable number.

In total, Democrats reduced the Republican advantage of 1.7% going into yesterday to around 0.5% after day one (still counties reporting, so this number will move around).
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Here are some interesting places on day one:

Won Duval County by 1,700 votes. Duval hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since Carter, and is one of those places where Trump really needs to run up the score. Dems also won the day in Polk County, an I-4 county that also hasn't voted for a Democrat since Carter.

Won Volusia County by several hundred, again a place that Trump was hoping to build on the gains of Romney in 2012.

And in bellwether county Hillsborough, the only place in Florida to vote for Bush twice and Obama twice, Democrats won by almost 3,000 votes, or roughly 14 points (49-35). By comparison, Democrats have a 7 point advantage in registration.
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In fact, Democrats won every county along I-4, plus Pinellas -- including both Republican strongholds Polk and Seminole. The total I-4 vote was 48-33D. Seminole County hasn't voted Democrat in a Presidential election since Truman.

Base turnout was also very encouraging.

In Orange County, Democrats won a robust day 53-27%

In Broward County, Democrats won a record day 63-20%

In Palm Beach, a county which improved for Romney in 2012, Dems won 53-27%

In Alachua, where the University of Florida is, it was 65-22% Dems.

And in Dade County, 10,000 more voters showed up on the first day of early voting than 2012. Of the 35,000 who cast a ballot, Democrats won the day 53-27%.
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These gains are so large they come across as ridiculous so the author did an investigation.
Two points: First, even if that's all they did, Clinton would almost surely win Florida. Republicans need to expand the electorate to win.

But, that isn't what is happening. Over 28% of Democratic vote by mail returnees as of yesterday were either first time voters, or rare voters (voted in 1 of last 3), compared to 20% for Republicans. Other way of looking at it: 80% of GOP vote by mail returns are from the most likely voters, compared to 72% of Democrats. That is voter expansion.
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Última edición por un moderador:
For the poll unskewers:
Early voting data in NC and FL is suggesting that polls substantially undersampled democrats and Clinton's true lead is larger than indicated.

The reason polls take hugely pro-D samples is that among likely voters, there are way more Ds than Rs. R turnout is being depressed by their candidate while traditionally low-voting cohorts like Hispanics have been turning out in huge numbers.

Relative to 2012 numbers, Dems are up .3% on Rs in NC. That may seem tiny but 15 out of 16 polling places in the most heavily Dem region (Guilford) are closed due to the Republican state government. When they open up in less than a week the trickle will become a flood.

This is gonna be a down ballot massacre.

My predictions right now: Dem president, 51-53 Dems in the Senate, 208+ Dems in the House.
 
Another prediction: the Dems are going to nuke the filibuster. I think it has breathed its last. It's not in the Constitution, it's a dumb procedural trick, and I'm happy to see it gone. This also means that the next time Republicans are in power in the Senate, probably in 2018, they'll be able to pass whatever they want (Obamacare repeal after Obamacare repeal, most likely), and I think this is good as well. Government exists to govern. A government that cannot govern is broken.
 
The Great Goatse dijo:
For the poll unskewers:
Early voting data in NC and FL is suggesting that polls substantially undersampled democrats and Clinton's true lead is larger than indicated.

The reason polls take hugely pro-D samples is that among likely voters, there are way more Ds than Rs. R turnout is being depressed by their candidate while traditionally low-voting cohorts like Hispanics have been turning out in huge numbers.

Relative to 2012 numbers, Dems are up .3% on Rs in NC. That may seem tiny but 15 out of 16 polling places in the most heavily Dem region (Guilford) are closed due to the Republican state government. When they open up in less than a week the trickle will become a flood.

This is gonna be a down ballot massacre.

My predictions right now: Dem president, 51-53 Dems in the Senate, 208+ Dems in the House.
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The GOP was warned from the start. Now they can all go down together. Pence is going to Utah to try and stem the bleeding to McMillian...let that sink in.
 
Legatus Lanius dijo:
They predicted the same thing with Catholics and Mormons and were proven wrong. Our Cuban, Dominicans, and Mexican immigrants are a large chunk of our population now (and before them it was Spainiards, Irishmen, Poles, and Italians),but I have yet to see bishops and cardinals intimidate governments to adopt Church friendly legislation.

Most cultures (like familial primacy or thrift) are effectivly beaten out by the second or third generation. I'm a second generation Italian-American, but I don't intend on having a massive family, nor did my parents or grandparents. My great grandparents were a different story.

Also, Trump has just managed to dig himself a little bit deeper.

Its like he wants to be seen as if he has no empathy.
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Well you are surely an exceptional pizza. You can not compare a very pacifistic religion to a very violent one in conduct.
 
Mike Pence is a lunatic evangelical but if he was on top of the ticket I think the race would be within 1%. He wouldn't be winning, though.
One thing that people really discount is that, in general, the demographics of this country really, really favor Democrats. In order to win, a Republican (any Republican) must completely run the table on swing states. Virginia is a blue state now, as is Pennsylvania, despite the bold predictions of talking heads; it's like Lucy with the football, yanking it away every year. Colorado likewise. Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio are the real battlegrounds, and those are getting less favorable every year. Republicans have won the national popular vote one time in the last 6 elections, and that was by less than three percent. That's why they really need to appeal to Latinos.
If the Republicans take on a nationalist-populist tone they can make Ohio perma-red and make a play for Pennsylvania, but... the fastest growing demographic groups in Michigan and Pennsylvania are not white, and white population growth there is stagnant. If they can't make it a multiracial-populist stance then they're doomed, especially since that nationalism is pushing Florida and Nevada further and further into the blue column and opening up Arizona as a swing state.
 
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