Home Buying / Housing Market Griefing Thread - You're going to rent until you die.

[Audit]

How should we read Buffet and co. buying up construction supply chain companies? It could be his usual blue chip approach to stocks. It could also mean that they expect infinite jeets/nigs to shit up the US and that housing demand will explode. I pray it's the former.

Which reminds me, I ran the numbers and buying a house makes absolutely no fiscal sense atm unless you have non-fiscal reasons to do it (wife + kids). Unless you're in some ultra low cost market, between interest rates, property taxes, insurance, and upkeep, I can't make a strong argument to not rent. Most urban markets can get you 2k/month rent in a non-shit neighborhood. 30 year mortgage rates are about 6.5%. Including a generous 25% down payment component, if you take on only $300k of debt for a $400k property, before you pay a penny in principle, you're dropping $19,500 (interest) and $8,000 (2% local property taxes) a year. While that interest column will slowly decrease with time, for the first few years, it's basically the entire annual cost of renting just to get your name on a piece of property. Insurance and regular upkeep can add drastically to this as well depending on location (lmao @ buying coastal flood insurance in Florida).

Which follows, who the hell has, by my safe estimate, at least $40k of post-tax income a year to drop on a "cheap" $400k house with a $100k downpayment? That's basically just people or couples making >>$100k/year. And, remember, a $400k house in most urban markets means the hood or making serious compromises in living standards. It gets you a lot in rural areas but way fewer people make >$100k in a rural area, which is why it's cheaper.

 

[reptile baht spaniard rid]

It's kinda true - unless you already own and are trading up, or are in rural enough areas, the rental side is pulling forward (which means that landlords are unsustainably subsidizing renters, but God forbid you try to point that out).

Unless you're in batshittown where it's never better to buy, buying is really a lifestyle decision, not a financial one.

 

[The Gay Oboma Creature]

I can't make a strong argument to not rent. Most urban markets can get you 2k/month rent in a non-shit neighborhood. 30 year mortgage rates are about 6.5%. Including a generous 25% down payment component, if you take on only $300k of debt for a $400k property, before you pay a penny in principle, you're dropping $19,500 (interest) and $8,000 (2% local property taxes) a year.

I know I will sound like a boomer but two of my friends have done this: You can get a livable-but-not-great house in a passable-if-not-fantastic area for high five to low six figures, and you can learn as you go to fix the things that are important to you to the point that it will turn you a profit. Your math assumes taking on debt, at rates such that the bank will make money off of you.

In a not-too-expensive area where my friend lives, rent is ~$1000 a month = $12,000 a year, and property tax is 2,000 by your metric (I don't know his tax laws, I'll assume 2%). Assuming 10% returns from dropping $100k into the Dow Jones instead, you break even the first year even without accounting for property appreciation and the fact that a White person living in a house will naturally make it substantially more valuable just by fixing the things that bother him from day to day.

---

On a related note, I helped both of them out by gathering up census data and putting together a racial dot map of their areas, along with running some other CSfag analysis that realtors aren't legally allowed to talk about or show you because of anti-discrimination laws. This helps a lot with getting an affordable house in a salvageable area because you avoid boomers trying to pawn off their coontown holdings on you and you also get first dibs on kind-of-shabby houses in alright neighborhoods that most buyers just assume are deep in enemy territory. Is there interest in scaling this out and sharing it with other farmers? I'd be down to chat here or by DM if so.

 

[reptile baht spaniard rid]

Is there interest in scaling this out and sharing it with other farmers?

Someone caught some fire recently on something similar, and it's insanely valuable information that often can only be obtained by becoming personally aquainted with the neighborhoods. Poor white trash is way different than nigtown, and simple racial maps (you're fighting white flight or something) don't always show the nuances necessary - some majority black neighborhoods are great places because it's all old blacks who'd shoot a nigger before you'd even be able to clear leather.

It takes about a year of on/off work to become quasi-general contractor level (learning what you can fix yourself, what you can hire out, and how to hire out). You build a rolodex of contacts and you keep in touch, and you buy a shithole every two or so years and pocket $250-500k tax free every other year if you do it perfectly. But even $100k every 2 years is a salary.

 

[Audit]

the rental side is pulling forward (which means that landlords are unsustainably subsidizing renters, but God forbid you try to point that out).

I think it's because rentals were built decades ago on cheap money or financed during the free money era of covid.

@SmugAutist Are rentals being subsidized with cheap money?

 

[SmugAutist]

@SmugAutist Are rentals being subsidized with cheap money?

It depends on the city, the market you're targeting, and the tenants you're getting. The clearest cheap money subsidizing is all Section 8 stuff, but obviously if you're targeting that as a landlord, you have an extremely high tolerance for the absolute shittiest of tenants. I don't know anyone personally who has their properties in Section 8.

There was certainly a lot of financing in the 2010s, which was in hindsight a golden age of real estate investing. Homes were cheap as fuck due to excess supply and you had insanely low interest rates. Don't expect those days to come back anytime soon, and supply is no longer keeping with demand in the most prime areas. The only way you get those deals is if you look at the marginal areas. Those are not bad houses, either, but they're probably for retirement since they're so far away from city centers and services.

There's a lot of government push to bring back construction so there's definitely a lot of government cheap money if you look hard enough, but the constant fuckery since COVID (lockdowns, inflation, supply chain disruption, construction material price hikes, etc.) has meant the end of a lot of small and mid sized developers that would be making residential properties and single family homes.

Besides that, our own investments are largely shifting away from residential and into commercial, and we've never done single family homes.

 

[The Gay Oboma Creature]

Someone caught some fire recently on something similar, and it's insanely valuable information that often can only be obtained by becoming personally aquainted with the neighborhoods.

I think there's a difference between exact information and reasonable expectations derived from aggregates. Your life can be improved immensely by making proper use of the latter, especially seeing as larger players are legally forbidden from doing so.

some majority black neighborhoods are great places because it's all old blacks who'd shoot a nigger before you'd even be able to clear leather.

I've seen instances of this, but firstly I wouldn't want to be an imposition/foreign presence in even an amenable neighborhood, and secondly what do you think is going to move in when Uncle Ruckus ages out.

It takes about a year of on/off work to become quasi-general contractor level (learning what you can fix yourself, what you can hire out, and how to hire out). You build a rolodex of contacts and you keep in touch, and you buy a shithole every two or so years and pocket $250-500k tax free every other year if you do it perfectly. But even $100k every 2 years is a salary.

Might be a bit optimistic, since that entails a number of rarely-cohabitant skills, from finance to tradesmanship to the CS/data science work necessary to identify desirable properties. It is the sort of thing that would be very lucrative if a group of White lads organized around it, though.

 

[reptile baht spaniard rid]

Are rentals being subsidized with cheap money?

Rentals are being subsidized by idiots because they can't (or won't) treat a rental like a true business and fudge the numbers (often unintentionally) and think they're coming out way ahead when they're just acting as a bad arbitrage agent.

Example. Some wigger bought a house in fucktown during the low interest rape boom, just before COVID made everything go insane. For ease, we'll say $300k loan at 3% or some shit. Make it CA to bring prop 13 in, too. They live in the house and mosey along with life. Mortgage payment with insurance and property tax is something like $2200/mo. Property was $400k or so when bought.

Come last year they want to move, but interest rapes are up at like 6 or 7%, house prices are up a fuckton (let's say $650k). They really don't want to "give away" their 3% loan so they get the bright idea to rent it and then buy another house to live in. They clear rent at $2500 (a bit optimistic, but let's be nice) which is more than their $2200/mo payment, so they're thinking they're netting $300 a month, or $3,600 a year. Great! Awesome! Amazing!

Except they fucked up the math hard. First, by not selling the original house and putting the (tax free bisch!) proceeds towards the new one, they're effectively earning $3,600 a year on the equity (let's just say $250k) - that's a shitass return of 1.4%, or let's be fair and say 2% if they net $200k. But in addition, they had to take a larger loan on the new house, which means they're paying that 6 or 7% on $200-250k that they didn't have to, to earn 2%. But since it's in different "buckets" they don't account for it.

And this is all before they learn that the mortgage, insurance, and property tax isn't all the expenses of maintaining a house. When they were living it, they were just things that happened, now each one is a noted expense and fucking annoying as hell.

(There's a bit of additional "savings" they will be arbitraging away because in CA the property tax would be lower than it would be if the property was sold at $650k).

They don't do the math above, or even close, let alone truly track everything, they just say "I bought a house at $400k and now it's worth $650k I'm a financial genius."

 

[BeardedWall]

I got taken for a ride by my own parents. They got into massive debt, so they wanted to sell their house and move to a cheaper state, but they hadn’t done any maintenance on the house in the 10 years they owned it. They had no money to hire anyone, so I spent the last year and a half — and went $24k into debt — fixing up the house with the promise that they would pay me back for what I put into it when they sold it. Not even labor, just the money I spent on repairs and materials.

24k is a chunk of change... but it's cheap for the lesson. Never ever do business, contracting, or engineering for someone who used to wipe your ass.

Imagine if you covered their mortgage payments or did "rent to own" and then they fucked you.

Even in the best case if you did get paid they would criticize how you spent it.. knowing they gave it to you.

Worse case, they bitch about the quality, or the timing, or how much effort you put in.

Worst case they just stiff you entirely.

You wont get that money back and any effort you expend from this point on is just a sunk cost fallacy. Just consider it an investment for when they eventually die and you inherit whatever they have left. Which they will write you out of if you keep bitching.

Edit: I also just realized you said they "got into massive debt" so you know they suck with money.. you should have known better.

 

[Audit]

For those wondering about housing prices....

Interesting little chart I'm going to drop.


It's rather remarkable that the majority of the US population has been funneled into urban areas while mass importing foreigners. It doesn't matter if the US is big if everyone is being stuffed into a small handful of places.

 

[SOLDIER OF WALES]

Some fucking retards next door with the exact same house model sold their house for what I bought it 2 years ago and now my valuation is all fucked up.

Why is my life suffering nigga? I can’t spend another day in this town. I don’t have to leave for a couple years but the sooner the better. I technically am breaking even right now but that’s gonna change when it plummets by 15k.

They did try to sell for my zestimate but got knocked down 5k then another 10k on top of that.

If anyone can feed me cope that’d be greatly appreciated.

 

[Diver Down]

[...] I bought it 2 years ago [...] zestimate [...]

Get a look at this Double Nigger.
You are part of the problem, suffah faggot.

 

[Never Scored]

Some fucking retards next door with the exact same house model sold their house for what I bought it 2 years ago and now my valuation is all fucked up.

Fuck, I hope my house drops in price. It's literally only beneficial for your house to shoot up in price after you buy if you intend to sell or if you intend to leverage your equity to take on more debt. If you don't intend to do either, all your home value going up does is drive up your property taxes.

 

[Aero the Alcoholic Bat]

Fuck, I hope my house drops in price. It's literally only beneficial for your house to shoot up in price after you buy if you intend to sell or if you intend to leverage your equity to take on more debt. If you don't intend to do either, all your home value going up does is drive up your property taxes.

It's so irritating that no one talks about the fact that if house prices were to go down, the only people who could possibly be hurt by it are those who hoard real estate.

 

[Queen Aleena]

It's so irritating that no one talks about the fact that if house prices were to go down, the only people who could possibly be hurt by it are those who hoard real estate.

I use the metric of car manufacturers. Those were bailed out by the government many times when they were about to fail which means the American government believes their power is reliant to some degree on those car manufacturers. If your part of the economic sector is as large or larger than car manufacturers, you won't be allowed to die.

Owning property affects way more financial firms and even some ordinary baby boomers whose net worth is overall way larger than domestic car manufacturers. This means the government will use their tricks to prop up the housing market indefinitely just like in 2008.

 

[SOLDIER OF WALES]

Get a look at this Double Nigger.
You are part of the problem, suffah faggot.

I didn't buy this shit as an investment, I just want to leave because theres no actual jobs here.

 

[reptile baht spaniard rid]

For those wondering about housing prices....

Interesting little chart I'm going to drop.
Ver archivo adjunto 9098221

It's rather remarkable that the majority of the US population has been funneled into urban areas while mass importing foreigners. It doesn't matter if the US is big if everyone is being stuffed into a small handful of places.

is this "us census" rural vs urban? b'cause that shit's fucked - basically, if you can get to a stoplight within five minutes or so, you're urban,

 

[Audit]

is this "us census" rural vs urban? b'cause that shit's fucked - basically, if you can get to a stoplight within five minutes or so, you're urban,

Not sure. Without getting too mucked up in the details though, you can look at urban vs. town vs. rural school attendance to confirm the mass redistribution of the population away from rural areas. Something weird happened in the mid 2000's, and I'm betting its mass importation of beaners or they redefined rural.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0013161X231159922

Taking the data at face value, there is some weird shit in the data. Where the hell did almost 8 million new rural students come from between 2003 and 2007? It's because the Census Bureau redefined the definition of rural, suburban, and urban in 1998 and 2005. Look at the sudden 8 million collapse in suburban students in the same time period. Ignoring the gap between these years, and you'll see a trend downward with time in rural areas but upward everywhere else.

	Rural Students	Suburban Students	Urban Students
1999	4,636,507	23,202,305	12,974,462
2003	4,475,753	24,915,764	13,971,998
2007	12,046,403	16,812,011	13,023,628
2011	13,433,238	16,215,457	14,152,564
2015	9,238,284	19,400,265	14,938,083
2017	9,544,311	20,082,857	15,235,699

I'd argue this is pretty much the easiest explanation for why housing prices have exploded. Look at the mass influx of people from rural to suburban and urban areas. Land is a finite commodity. Stuffing more and more people into the same place will cause single family, detached home prices in particular to explode. You can't live in the white picket fence suburb because you city has 4x the number of people living in it now.

 

[BeardedWall]

I didn't buy this shit as an investment, I just want to leave because theres no actual jobs here.

Your property is one of the best investments you can make... why buy a house otherwise? You love maintenance?

Why did you buy a house if you wanted to leave within a decade?

Only reason I can think is to lock the 3% mortgage rate. But then you can never leave.

 

[SOLDIER OF WALES]

Your property is one of the best investments you can make... why buy a house otherwise? You love maintenance?

Why did you buy a house if you wanted to leave within a decade?

Only reason I can think is to lock the 3% mortgage rate. But then you can never leave.

I got out of the military and my dad sperged the fuck out about how I need a brand new house ASAP so I can pay the mortgage down before 55 and I believed him lol