Trump Derangement Syndrome - Orange man bad. Read the OP! (ᴛʜɪs ᴛʜʀᴇᴀᴅ ɪs ʟɪᴋᴇ ᴋɪᴡɪ ғᴀʀᴍs ʀᴇᴠɪᴇᴡs ɴᴏᴡ) 🗿🗿🗿🗿

Their inability to accept it like grownups has been their undoing, and it will continue to be as they keep trying to push their message through media and entertainment channels on a populace that increasingly sees them as authoritarian sore losers and tunes out, causing the narrative pushers to turn up the volume, sure the problem is that us proles just don't get how STUPID we are, and the cycle repeats. They won't have any say at all for 2020 at this rate.
 
Their inability to accept it like grownups has been their undoing, and it will continue to be as they keep trying to push their message through media and entertainment channels on a populace that increasingly sees them as authoritarian sore losers and tunes out, causing the narrative pushers to turn up the volume, sure the problem is that us proles just don't get how STUPID we are, and the cycle repeats. They won't have any say at all for 2020 at this rate.

A couple of months ago I would have said that the Republicans being able to amend the Constitution at will would be the Democrats wake up call but now I'm not so sure. They've reached CWC levels of delusional.
 
Donald Trump should have been easy to defeat in 2016, but the Democrats wanted to keep towing the party line and force Hillary Clinton onto the electorate despite her massive unpopularity instead of running Bernie Sanders (who actually had the support of the Democratic base, but wasn't as palatable to the higher-ups at the DNC). Combine Hillary's low approval rating with blatant elitism and SJW pandering, and the Democrats lose the White House, Congress, and the Supreme Court in one fell swoop.

Now Trump is not well-liked by the general public (though he wasn't as thoroughly hated as Hillary and probably still isn't) and so far, his administration is generally incompetent and Trump's mouth wrote some checks his ass couldn't cash while he was on the campaign trail (such as bringing back coal jobs, when the coal industry is essentially dead and any extant coal production is heavily automated), not to mention the whole "Repeal and Replace" fiasco regarding the Affordable Healthcare Act, as nearly every replacement plan offered has been disliked by the general populace and even mainline conservative Republicans are finding it unpalatable. So, theoretically Trump and the Republicans should be easy to beat in 2018 and 2020, right?

Well, the Democrats' heads are so far up their own asses that instead of learning from their past mistakes and taking advantage of what should be easy wins in 2018 and 2020, they double down on the elitism, the SJW nonsense, and the general contempt for the working class (especially the white working class), practically ensuring a Republican-controlled government for the foreseeable future.

@Ruin is correct, the Democratic Party truly has reached CWC levels of delusional idiocy.
 
Bernie Bros are as delusional when it comes to Hillary as the average Democrat is about Trump right now. I gotta address this because 'If only Bernie-san had saved us from Hillary' comes up every 10 fucking pages or so.

Face it, Bernie Sanders was never gonna win. In fact the Democrats were never gonna win because they had no viable candidate to promulgate their ideas, because they genuinely don't even know what they stand for anymore. But specifically, Bernie Sanders was never gonna win the election because he was never gonna win the nomination in the first place. Because he's a terrible candidate.

Even if you removed the superdelegates, Bernie Sanders still loses. Even if you go by raw popular vote, Bernie Sanders still loses. He lost the nomination against a woman who was bar none the worst presidential candidate in history. He was the darling of the Left, they loved him on MSNBC and left-wing hosts and talking heads and newspaper editorials, and he was the toast of the ball in Hollywood. They loved him and couldn't stand her. And he still lost in spite of that because he was a terrible candidate.

The DNC might not have favored him, but they didn't cheat him out of a victory, Democratic voters rejected him. And it's not hard to see why.

He told white middle-class Americans over and over to suck it up and that they'd have to pay more to implement shit like $15 minimum wage, in order to pay for free college tuition, for universal pre-k and other projects, projects that without except do not fix the problems they are trying to fix but are in fact making things worse. His medicare plan alone was gonna raise the prices for 70% of Americans to pay for medicare for everyone. He said there would be "massive" tax increase.

All of his ideas were terrible. He wanted to prevent the VA from privatizing, throw some more cash at social security, etc...

Not to mention, he was an old ranting man screaming at a cloud. He knew his mantra of socialism and welfare programs, but when it came to foreign policy (or literally anything else) he was pretty much clueless and never had anything to say aside from the same left-wing cliches on american imperialism, israel bad, etc.. Even when it comes to his own social welfare programs, he's cant debate. He was completely destroyed by Cruz on their 1 on 1 on healthcare debate, it was embarrassing. The Zodiac Killer killed a nigga on national television and he's walking around free

And this is when he was addressing his own base. That's why they showed up and aside from the strong millenial and first-time voter support, most Democrats went 'What? Fuck that shit' and held their nose and voted for Hillary.


You really think that independent or swing voting middle-class Americans are gonna vote for the guy who is saying he's gonna be raising not only their taxes, but their health insurance AND day to day expenses as well? Would vote for a man who openly calls himself a socialist when 60%+ of Americans still rightfully see that as something negative?

It's like this: 50% of Americans would literally rather vote for a gay atheist muslim than someone they see as perfect qualified but calls himself a socialist as a President

Without even being exposed to his ideas, half of America already decided they don't want to vote for him. And remember, the vast majority of people don't pay attention to the primaries so for most people bernie sanders was just a grandpa looking old man. Said primaries where his own party rejected what he was proposing. And that's before Republicans even started tearing into him and turned the spotlight on his personal life like how he used to be a bum and steal from people or never having a job that wasn't with the government in his life (and he was a NEET until he was 40)


So you think that with all of that he would have been able to win the states that Hillary lost when he couldn't even fucking win his own party's nomination?

giphy.gif
 
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Even if you removed the superdelegates, Bernie Sanders still loses. Even if you go by raw popular vote, Bernie Sanders still loses. He lost the nomination again a woman who was bar none the worst presidential candidate in history. He was the darling of the Left, they loved him on MSNBC and left-wing hosts and talking heads and newspaper editorials, and he was the toast of the ball in Hollywood. They loved him and couldn't stand her. And he still lost in spite of that because he was a terrible candidate.
You are probably right, he probably wouldn't have won. But I sure as fuck don't consider cnn or 538 reliable sources of info on this considering their reliability during the actual presidential race.
 
You are probably right, he probably wouldn't have won. But I sure as fuck don't consider cnn or 538 reliable sources of info on this considering their reliability during the actual presidential race.

fivethirtyeight was more candid than most other modeling sites regarding the chances of a trump victory and was constantly shit on for it by people like david rothschild at predictwise. theirs was really the only major model that held the the election to be a toss-up until the eleventh hour, and they were right to do so. furthermore in general the polling was off by numbers well within the margin of error. the data is massively complex and modeling it is even more insanely complex so i don't think it's fair to call fivethirtyeight not reliable. they did the best they had with the data they had and they were off by numbers within the margin of error. the polling errors weren't as massive as some people make it out to be.

if anything proved its uselessness this past year it was betting markets.
 
fivethirtyeight was more candid than most other modeling sites regarding the chances of a trump victory and was constantly shit on for it by people like david rothschild at predictwise. theirs was really the only major model that held the the election to be a toss-up until the eleventh hour, and they were right to do so. furthermore in general the polling was off by numbers well within the margin of error. the data is massively complex and modeling it is even more insanely complex so i don't think it's fair to call fivethirtyeight not reliable. they did the best they had with the data they had and they were off by numbers within the margin of error. the polling errors weren't as massive as some people make it out to be.

if anything proved its uselessness this past year it was betting markets.
I mean, they gave Trump a 29% chance of winning. Fivethrirtyeight was officially a gold medal winning participant at the Special Olympics, which was a great improvement over their "work" prior to the conventions. People kind of forget about Nate writing apologies for not doing data modeling instead of being a bombastic, and oh so wrong, jackass. Also, I forget what the margin of error was, but their 99% declaration of Hillary owning Michigan was one of my favorites.

I've followed Nate's work since he was making a name for himself in baseball analytics and I'll say this for the guy, he's one hell of a self promoter. He also one of the very few I know doing data modeling with an undergrad degree, so being Fivethirtyeight's EIC with an undergrad is a real accomplishment.
 
I mean, they gave Trump a 29% chance of winning. Fivethrirtyeight was officially a gold medal winning participant at the Special Olympics, which was a great improvement over their "work" prior to the conventions. People kind of forget about Nate writing apologies for not doing data modeling instead of being a bombastic, and oh so wrong, jackass. Also, I forget what the margin of error was, but their 99% declaration of Hillary owning Michigan was one of my favorites.

I've followed Nate's work since he was making a name for himself in baseball analytics and I'll say this for the guy, he's one hell of a self promoter. He also one of the very few I know doing data modeling with an undergrad degree, so being Fivethirtyeight's EIC with an undergrad is a real accomplishment.

oh wow i wasn't really aware of his education. i just assumed he had a masters or something. call me a sucker for being sold on his self-promotion! i guess it is pretty easy to just shave 10 or so percent on either side of your model just in case you're wrong so you can claim to be "less wrong" after the fact. gotta keep the clicks coming! (for contrast, predictwise went radio silent for months, aside from a writeup on how to better model stuff next time.)
 
Bernie Bros are as delusional when it comes to Hillary as the average Democrat is about Trump right now. I gotta address this because 'If only Bernie-san had saved us from Hillary' comes up every 10 fucking pages or so.

Face it, Bernie Sanders was never gonna win. In fact the Democrats were never gonna win because they had no viable candidate to promulgate their ideas, because they genuinely don't even know what they stand for anymore. But specifically, Bernie Sanders was never gonna win the election because he was never gonna win the nomination in the first place. Because he's a terrible candidate.

Even if you removed the superdelegates, Bernie Sanders still loses. Even if you go by raw popular vote, Bernie Sanders still loses. He lost the nomination against a woman who was bar none the worst presidential candidate in history. He was the darling of the Left, they loved him on MSNBC and left-wing hosts and talking heads and newspaper editorials, and he was the toast of the ball in Hollywood. They loved him and couldn't stand her. And he still lost in spite of that because he was a terrible candidate.

The DNC might not have favored him, but they didn't cheat him out of a victory, Democratic voters rejected him. And it's not hard to see why.

He told white middle-class Americans over and over to suck it up and that they'd have to pay more to implement shit like $15 minimum wage, in order to pay for free college tuition, for universal pre-k and other projects, projects that without except do not fix the problems they are trying to fix but are in fact making things worse. His medicare plan alone was gonna raise the prices for 70% of Americans to pay for medicare for everyone. He said there would be "massive" tax increase.

All of his ideas were terrible. He wanted to prevent the VA from privatizing, throw some more cash at social security, etc...

Not to mention, he was an old ranting man screaming at a cloud. He knew his mantra of socialism and welfare programs, but when it came to foreign policy (or literally anything else) he was pretty much clueless and never had anything to say aside from the same left-wing cliches on american imperialism, israel bad, etc.. Even when it comes to his own social welfare programs, he's cant debate. He was completely destroyed by Cruz on their 1 on 1 on healthcare debate, it was embarrassing. The Zodiac Killer killed a nigga on national television and he's walking around free

And this is when he was addressing his own base. That's why they showed up and aside from the strong millenial and first-time voter support, most Democrats went 'What? Fuck that shit' and held their nose and voted for Hillary.


You really think that independent or swing voting middle-class Americans are gonna vote for the guy who is saying he's gonna be raising not only their taxes, but their health insurance AND day to day expenses as well? Would vote for a man who openly calls himself a socialist when 60%+ of Americans still rightfully see that as something negative?

It's like this: 50% of Americans would literally rather vote for a gay atheist muslim than someone they see as perfect qualified but calls himself a socialist as a President

Without even being exposed to his ideas, half of America already decided they don't want to vote for him. And remember, the vast majority of people don't pay attention to the primaries so for most people bernie sanders was just a grandpa looking old man. Said primaries where his own party rejected what he was proposing. And that's before Republicans even started tearing into him and turned the spotlight on his personal life like how he used to be a bum and steal from people or never having a job that wasn't with the government in his life (and he was a NEET until he was 40)


So you think that with all of that he would have been able to win the states that Hillary lost when he couldn't even fucking win his own party's nomination?

giphy.gif

I still think Trump would have probably won even if Bernie got the nomination, but I do think he would have fared better than Hillary, which isn't saying as much. And even when you take his socialist policies into account, he still wouldn't have alienated nearly as many voters as Hillary and probably would've done less damage to the Democratic Party than Hillary did.

Even the people who hated the idea of a socialist president did concede that Bernie was more honest and trustworthy than Hillary (again, that isn't saying much), even stalwart conservative Glenn Beck was one of these people. He did not support Bernie Sanders in any way, obviously, but he admitted that Hillary was the worse of the two.

Again, this is my opinion and nothing more. While I do agree that Trump would have most likely won the election anyway, I don't think Bernie was more toxic of a candidate than Hillary and I think Hillary Clinton getting the nomination was the beginning of a massive ongoing downward spiral that the Democrats have gotten themselves into.
 
fivethirtyeight was more candid than most other modeling sites regarding the chances of a trump victory and was constantly shit on for it by people like david rothschild at predictwise. theirs was really the only major model that held the the election to be a toss-up until the eleventh hour, and they were right to do so. furthermore in general the polling was off by numbers well within the margin of error. the data is massively complex and modeling it is even more insanely complex so i don't think it's fair to call fivethirtyeight not reliable. they did the best they had with the data they had and they were off by numbers within the margin of error. the polling errors weren't as massive as some people make it out to be.

if anything proved its uselessness this past year it was betting markets.
You're right, I was letting my judgement of cnn cloud my memory of 538's record, which did have some flaws, but was definitely better t
I still think Trump would have probably won even if Bernie got the nomination, but I do think he would have fared better than Hillary, which isn't saying as much. And even when you take his socialist policies into account, he still wouldn't have alienated nearly as many voters as Hillary and probably would've done less damage to the Democratic Party than Hillary did
And it's really really difficult to judge how the election would have played out if the DNC had done their job properly and promoted all candidates instead of just going all in with Hillary. It wasn't just the super delegates, campaign funds that were supposed to be shared by all DNC candidates in all races were plundered to fund Hillary, which practically guaranteed the Republican gang rape that followed. Of course, no one in the msm talked about that at all until the campaign was over, which no doubt contributed to the one sided narrative they were pushing.
 
Bernie Bros are as delusional when it comes to Hillary as the average Democrat is about Trump right now. I gotta address this because 'If only Bernie-san had saved us from Hillary' comes up every 10 fucking pages or so.

Face it, Bernie Sanders was never gonna win. In fact the Democrats were never gonna win because they had no viable candidate to promulgate their ideas, because they genuinely don't even know what they stand for anymore. But specifically, Bernie Sanders was never gonna win the election because he was never gonna win the nomination in the first place. Because he's a terrible candidate.

Even if you removed the superdelegates, Bernie Sanders still loses. Even if you go by raw popular vote, Bernie Sanders still loses. He lost the nomination against a woman who was bar none the worst presidential candidate in history. He was the darling of the Left, they loved him on MSNBC and left-wing hosts and talking heads and newspaper editorials, and he was the toast of the ball in Hollywood. They loved him and couldn't stand her. And he still lost in spite of that because he was a terrible candidate.

The DNC might not have favored him, but they didn't cheat him out of a victory, Democratic voters rejected him. And it's not hard to see why.

He told white middle-class Americans over and over to suck it up and that they'd have to pay more to implement shit like $15 minimum wage, in order to pay for free college tuition, for universal pre-k and other projects, projects that without except do not fix the problems they are trying to fix but are in fact making things worse. His medicare plan alone was gonna raise the prices for 70% of Americans to pay for medicare for everyone. He said there would be "massive" tax increase.

All of his ideas were terrible. He wanted to prevent the VA from privatizing, throw some more cash at social security, etc...

Not to mention, he was an old ranting man screaming at a cloud. He knew his mantra of socialism and welfare programs, but when it came to foreign policy (or literally anything else) he was pretty much clueless and never had anything to say aside from the same left-wing cliches on american imperialism, israel bad, etc.. Even when it comes to his own social welfare programs, he's cant debate. He was completely destroyed by Cruz on their 1 on 1 on healthcare debate, it was embarrassing. The Zodiac Killer killed a nigga on national television and he's walking around free

And this is when he was addressing his own base. That's why they showed up and aside from the strong millenial and first-time voter support, most Democrats went 'What? Fuck that shit' and held their nose and voted for Hillary.


You really think that independent or swing voting middle-class Americans are gonna vote for the guy who is saying he's gonna be raising not only their taxes, but their health insurance AND day to day expenses as well? Would vote for a man who openly calls himself a socialist when 60%+ of Americans still rightfully see that as something negative?

It's like this: 50% of Americans would literally rather vote for a gay atheist muslim than someone they see as perfect qualified but calls himself a socialist as a President

Without even being exposed to his ideas, half of America already decided they don't want to vote for him. And remember, the vast majority of people don't pay attention to the primaries so for most people bernie sanders was just a grandpa looking old man. Said primaries where his own party rejected what he was proposing. And that's before Republicans even started tearing into him and turned the spotlight on his personal life like how he used to be a bum and steal from people or never having a job that wasn't with the government in his life (and he was a NEET until he was 40)


So you think that with all of that he would have been able to win the states that Hillary lost when he couldn't even fucking win his own party's nomination?

giphy.gif
lol Bernie is a retarded manchild who never figured out how finances work. Excellent post. Standing ovation.
 
I mean, they gave Trump a 29% chance of winning. Fivethrirtyeight was officially a gold medal winning participant at the Special Olympics, which was a great improvement over their "work" prior to the conventions. People kind of forget about Nate writing apologies for not doing data modeling instead of being a bombastic, and oh so wrong, jackass. Also, I forget what the margin of error was, but their 99% declaration of Hillary owning Michigan was one of my favorites.

I've followed Nate's work since he was making a name for himself in baseball analytics and I'll say this for the guy, he's one hell of a self promoter. He also one of the very few I know doing data modeling with an undergrad degree, so being Fivethirtyeight's EIC with an undergrad is a real accomplishment.

FiveThirtyEight was doing the same shady stuff the others were. They typically misrepresented the top line of any poll in order to pimp Clinton as that's all the clueless morons in the Mainstream Media would parrot. Just like everybody else. 538 just tended to give themselves greater margins of error for when the sheet hit the fan.

I remember a great example of this from one of the late ABC/WaPo polls out of Michigan. It predicted Hillary by 4 points. But if you actually drilled down into the data. Their sample was something like 490 Republican likely voters and 680 Democrats. In a district that had a near perfect 50/50 split of Registered Dems and Republicans. So with a 20%+ favorable oversampling their preferred candidate was only gaining a 4 point rise? Yeah that poll didn't mean what they claimed it meant. To any one with even a minimal undergrad analysis skills it clearly showed Trump was winning and Clinton had lost 20%+ of the Dem base in the area (which is what happened in reality). But NOPE top line says Clinton +4, gotta pimp the narrative.
 
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