Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

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Myrtle the Turtle dijo:
I recall before Midnight Hammer that there was speculation of will the US or won't the US help out Israel. Turns out we already were locked in, just waiting for the right time. Its a psyop against Iran. Since the admin early on purged traitors and leakers when he first got into office last year, these 'unnamed sources' have been proven wrong every time. Internal opsec in the Admin is the best its been in ages. This is intentional, Trump hints at different things but you have no idea what he's going to do.

Its part of the tactic to keep the world and enemies on alert for him. He could post a funny meme one day, the next day double the tariffs. Its been like this for years now and people still freak out and claim every new event is the end of Orange man because he said X or did Y wrong.
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I'm a never Trumper for sure, but one thing I had to admit during his first term, he knew how to negotiate with Muslims. For the last 80 years America has had a neo-liberal foreign policy which works great when you're dealing with other countries that also have a neo-liberal outlook. If everyone believes that working together is mutually beneficial then everyone works together without problems.

But that didn't work with certain countries that had a neo-realist outlook where every international negotiation is a zero-sum game and someone has to lose in order for them to win. And for the most part, America was strong enough and these countries were irrelevant enough that we could just pretend that they would bow down to the neo-liberal order sooner or later if we kept on being a sterling example of neo-liberalism, but it just never quite worked out.

And Trump was the first president we've had in a long time who doesn't have that liberal, optimistic view of the world, and it's definitely hurting our relations with our other neo-liberal partners who get upset that Trump tries to squeeze every concession that he can out of them, but boy is it a breath of fresh air when we're talking about the assholes, and frankly, on a personal level even the assholes who are finally getting pushback actually seem to appreciate having someone who speaks their language.

I was incredibly skeptical when he announced he was putting his goofy-ass son-in-law in charge of Middle East peace, but he actually accomplished a lot there. I thought that him using a MOAB on ISIS was pointless, and practically speaking it probably didn't offer many tactical benefits, but it showed a certain low-level thuggishness that terrorists actually understood. He isn't someone who ponders Gordian knots.
 
Battlefield2142EU dijo:
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Meanwhile on Pakistani television. Abdul Basit threatens to nuke India if Pakistan gets attacked by the United States during the Iran war.
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Surfin Terf dijo:
For the last 80 years America has had a neo-liberal foreign policy which works great when you're dealing with other countries that also have a neo-liberal outlook. If everyone believes that working together is mutually beneficial then everyone works together without problems.
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Trump also handled North Korea pretty well in his first term.
 
Shovelbird dijo:
Can any expert like goatse guy or someone else tell me how the US cant defend Hormuz Strait laymanlike?

I mean, in today's military satellite strength and weapons ranges I'd expect the USA to simply flatten anyone firing at a ship. Maybe unlike RTS you just cant build turrets in range I guess :D
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They can, it'd just be a royal pain in the ass. Even though the US can easily win tactically, there are also strategic and political factors to consider. Trump and Hegseth don't want the first USN ship sinking due to hostilities since WW2 on their hands. Even if the possibility of that is remote, it's still very real.
 
DumbDude43 dijo:
nuclear retaliation was a real concern with the soviet union because they actually had a massive nuclear arsenal and a large submarine fleet, so in case of nuclear war they could have hidden subs emerge everywhere around america and quickly launch loads of multi-warhead missiles at the US from relatively short range, from all possible directionss,
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Isn't this one of the main reasons for the attempts at controlling Cuba?

Because they would easily be a launch pad for the Commies
 
After some more deletion of Iranian assets along the coast there will be warship escorts unless the war ends first. Tankers aren't going to move in sufficient numbers without one or the other. Achieving sufficient deletion will extend the war past Trump's 4-6 (I believe the very first statements were 4-5) weeks by several weeks
 
draggs dijo:
After some more deletion of Iranian assets along the coast there will be warship escorts unless the war ends first. Tankers aren't going to move in sufficient numbers without one or the other. Achieving sufficient deletion will extend the war past Trump's 4-6 (I believe the very first statements were 4-5) weeks by several weeks
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Remember yesterday when he said they were considering winding down lol
 
Onepumpplumpchump dijo:
What the hell do they mean they're going to target IT sites and Hotels, they've been doing that for the past 3 weeks. They must really be shitting themselves right now if this is there only threat.
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It’s highly speculated there’s a massive disconnect with the government and IRGC. Local cells are likely conducting attacks all on their own choice.
 
Goku 1000000 O dijo:
Option 1: Strike energy infrastructure

Option 2: Seize Kharg Island and the Straits’ chokepoint

Option 1 is being signaled by Trump through that last tweet, and matches some of the talk of starting a draw down of forces. Bombing the infrastructure would probably doom the state, not much more to do at this point if thats the next target.

Option 2 is signaled by marine forces being sent over in recent days. And would align with talk earlier this week about finishing the job.

Trump could be sending out mixed signals to confuse the enemy or keeping his options open.
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We have 2 different Marine expedition craft headed toward Iran at the moment, one coming from Japan, the other departing from the mainland US

While media will often talk about them like the same sort of thing both being "amphibious assault craft" etc the types of ships they are is fairly different and geared more toward different purposes. the USS-Tripoli coming over from Japan is the less likely of the two to actually engage in putting marines on the ground on Kharg if such a thing were to happen. It is an America-class ship which is set up with a greater focus on flight operations and F-35s can operate from it's flight deck while the ship itself completely lacks a well deck which would be used to deploy landing craft.

The second ship coming over from the mainland however is the USS-Boxer which is a Wasp-class and a lot better suited to the task and a lot less useful for other tasks. Technically speaking both could deploy ground troops of course, but one would definitely be the stronger candidate while the other would probably better serve in a support capacity with what we have in the region already.

All this is to say the better suited of the two Marine ships inbound will not be in the area within 48 hours (Trumps deadline stated here) so I don't think it's that kind of feint for him to be blustering about the power plants.

And even putting all of that aside such a Feint would never actually work still because again I think folks need to pull out their maps and remember where Kharg Island is, it's in the gulf, well beyond the straight itself. We aren't moving our warships through the straight and risking them being hit, and even if we were willing to do that, you're not going to pull of a sneak feint with it because Iran would just see the massive warship moving into the area (our Amphibious assault ships are the same size as the French carrier in the region)
 
ThisIsGonnaBeGood dijo:
Iran's big boy response to Trump threatening to destroy their entire energy industry is to threaten to... do what they've pretty much already been doing.
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Ahh. The Old World is bombing itself into abject poverty again. Another American century secured.

ThisIsGonnaBeGood dijo:
"Look, guys, I'm helping."
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RIP Bong submariners. Your government's need to blabber to the world got you all killed.
 
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