Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

[Historical Strelkov]

but it's not and you would have to ignore the entire ideology of the Islamic revolution in order to think this way.

The legitimacy of their entire ideology and mission is dependent on their assertion and existence as a serious state and regional center of power, it's why they completely sperg out any time they aren't "taken seriously" in their eyes and they would never tolerate being relegated to simply being a stateless ISIS like entity.

The more they are made to crumble and be made to look useless outside of being an islamist temper tantrum the more their entire asserted identity is undermined and de-legitimized. They are more comparable to an islamic Israel who's claim to relevancy is giving a "homeland" to their particular brand of theology if you de-legitimize them as a state than their entire mission has failed.

To be fair any time someone claims "The Islamic State" they are being ideological about it. There's a distinction between the "caliphate" type states that are mujahideen running around claiming the Islamic state anywhere they can which is what Al-Qaeda and ISIL or ISIS or whatever you want to call it did.

Then there are ethnic enclave states that proclaim themselves "An Islamic State" which is how you get a Saudi Arabia. It's also what existed before the Ba'athists did a socialism. The middle east used to be tribal kingdoms. Then it was arab socialists, now it is wrestling with itself because of technology and ideology becoming almost too much to control.

The distinction with Iran is that they are the Shiite version of the Islamic State, but also they're Persian so they're ethnically distinct from arabs. They have to fulfill several different obligations to different people at once. Whereas Bahrain or Qatar just has to stop their own populations from rebelling against them and creating a Mujahideen state.

Really though this is the problem with Islam in general. No one is ever "doing an islam" enough. that's why the gulf states send their jihadists outward to do their shit because they don't want another Ikhwan revolt or an attack on mecca, or the houthis invading, etc.

Islam is a revolutionary ideology, this is directly antithetical to establishing a state that has a perennial control. Muhammad only ruled over Medina for like 10 years. Everyone else after him had to replicate that somehow, and thats how you get the Islamic Courts System. Therefore Iran has to always be revolutionary in spirit, and religiously oriented but has the same ethnic enclave tribal basis as Saudis. It's an inherently unstable apparatus because its all about Muhammadism.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ikhwan_revolt

 

[ThisIsGonnaBeGood]

Trump does some more shitting on the EU for being a bunch of wishy-washy pussies who don't deserve shit

0:52

 

[autistic dog]

Why would NATO countries get involved? This was supposed to be a decapitation strike into a leadership change by Israel and the United States. It did not work and now the two countries that caused this mess need to figure out how to get out of it.

The U.S. and Israel are bombing the entire country. Unless you want to do a land invasion with the entirety of NATO, what else can they do?

America is already "out of it" the other countries are running into a problem of the neighbor also attacking them. America was being a good friend and blocking the shots but they don't have to open up the straight its not their problem per say.

In fact I will go further and say this is a hostage situation and its in America and the worlds best interest not to negotiate with terrorist.

 

[IAmNotAlpharius]

I’m wondering if the UK actually does have some issue where the new (likely) dead ayatollah has more than just properties in the UK. UK has a ton of foreign investment and beyond Charles being a Muslim, they might actually be afraid of the local muzzies getting pissed.

I’m starting to buy into some of the schizophrenic theories that the British deep state was intertwined with Iran and used it to manipulate shipping, insurance, and as a tool for insider trading.

 

[CIS White Droid]

This is completely asymmetric warfare and is pretty much unprecedented. I remember there was some US army general or something who did a war game based on asymmetric warfare and the US lost heavily in it.

I assume you're talking about the wargame where a (iirc) USMC general used fast boats to take out a carrier group by loading them with so much explosives and tech that they'd have sunk from the added weight and the carrier group was forced to run effectively blind. Using US wargames as an accurate measure of our capabilities is incredibly retarded, we intentionally gimp our forces to test absolutely worst case scenarios.

 

[Goofy Logic]

Putin really has the power to do something hilarious and well deserved.Ver archivo adjunto 8709310

I believe the Soviet Union agreed to dismantle those to end the crisis

 

[Tactical Wizard]

This is completely asymmetric warfare and is pretty much unprecedented. I remember there was some US army general or something who did a war game based on asymmetric warfare and the US lost heavily in it.

General Van Riper and he was a retired Marine. What he did was have the simulated Iranians use motorcycle couriers to hand off written orders so as to avoid US signals intelligence and used a swarm of suicide speed boats to overwhelm American point defense. And it worked! In the exercise, he was able to sink an aircraft carrier.

However the Iranians were played by a 140 IQ giga chad who took the initiative and unleashed hell before the American side in the exercise was able to cut out his command and control Ala Desert Storm. And Iran did take notes. They have A LOT of small boats but they’re a state actor and state actors need to implement command and control to do any of this ballsy shit. Guess what we blew up on the first day?

 

[Demonslayer1776]

America is already "out of it" the other countries are running into a problem of the neighbor also attacking them. America was being a good friend and blocking the shots but they don't have to open up the straight its not their problem per say.

In fact I will go further and say this is a hostage situation and its in America and the worlds best interest not to negotiate with terrorist.

The gulf states have been hurt by this more than others and have been generally solid business partners. When this is over its highly likely that they will play a pivotal role in reshaping the region to be more US friendly, so abandoning them is a poor idea. Its important to ensure that any sacrifices they make are not without reward, and that we show that loyal allies arent left out to dry.

 

[namelesstacotruck]

America is already "out of it" the other countries are running into a problem of the neighbor also attacking them. America was being a good friend and blocking the shots but they don't have to open up the straight its not their problem per say.

In fact I will go further and say this is a hostage situation and its in America and the worlds best interest not to negotiate with terrorist.

Does Iran even have someone who can issue a stand down order?

 

[genericwhitemale]

It's interesting to see what people consider a "win" condition here.

I think there is a disconnect here that is vast and people assuming if the US just fucks off that things will be fine and dandy and the fact that like more than half the world is economically and resource-wise totally fucked won't have any impact on America.

IMHO a win can only really exist if they get new leadership to take over Iran which I don't think is going to happen. The US and "allies" in the region are driving through their resources to try and defend against Iran's very cheap and very effective drone army and in the interim the instability caused to the world stage by the Strait being closed will have severe ramifications on the US.

I agree that anything other than a regime change and the conflict being over by at least April will be considered a loss, both in international reputation and domestic reputation. My thought the day the bombing began was this was a plan to distract Iran so the protesters could successfully topple the Khameni regime, but the fact that they carpet bombed him and his successors is proof that they want to get their hands dirty changing the regime, and I can't imagine that would sit well with even the most outspoken Iranian. Imo that was their biggest mistake. If America had been coy, allowed Israel to go in first, drop a couple bombs, waited for Iran to respond and then help Israel, it certainly wouldn't sit well with a lot of people but it would at least be seen as more understandable. But jumping straight to the nuclear option of killing the supreme leader was definitely jumping the gun.
Having said that, pulling out and leaving the current regime in place but severely weakened could and probably will still ultimately result in its collapse. I'm still pretty sceptical this'll all pay off, though.

 

[Ghostse]

Why would NATO countries get involved?

Because the strait being close fucks with their oil supplies, not the US or Jews.

He should do it.

Eh, maybe once they can secure the shore.

Regime change is not feasible anymore according to Israel.

Ver archivo adjunto 8709164

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-890043

Israel: No, we're not going to invade and put a guy on the throne and have to support him for 20 years. If the Iranian people want to do that after we're doen tearing apart the state control aparatatus they can.
Retards: ISRAEL SAYS REGIME CHANGE IS IMPOSSIBLE

Nowhere in the article you posted does it say that regime change is "not feasible anymore", just that it isn't the IDF's current goal.

If you'd been paying attention you would know that's the point of these strikes, to weaken the regime enough that the Iranians themselves can overthrow it.

See the problem with your post is assuming they've been paying attention to anything but what their KGB & CCP handlers tell them to chimp out about

It's honestly surprising that there hasn't been more resistance internally against the regime.

> Shah tells protestors to stay inside and wait for bombing to complete
> US tells protestors to stay inside and wait for bombing to complete
> Jews tell protestors to stay inside and wait for bombing to complete
> These statements telling protestors to stay inside and wait for the bombing to complete are referenced repeatedly in this very thread.

An absolute retard with zero IQ or awareness: Man why aren't there protests against the regime?

Nigger you post like your balls never dropped. Your posting could be confused for someone who was involved in the world'd first brain transplant as the donor. You seem to be on the mental level of someoen who goes to a diddy party, has a condom fall out of their ass hole, and wonder what you ate last night.

I think people have the wrong frame of mind about all of this.

I think you are a low information, lower-IQ retard and wish you'd stop allowing your idiocy to drip out of fingers and fag up this thread.

we win... "for now". All this does is kick the can for another 10 years maybe. Unless Israel goes full agro after we leave to glass the place completely. Which, if history tells us anything, they will come crawling for help the first time they encounter a retaliatory death.

Depends. With no airdefense and Israel proven to have free reign over the country, they can just come back and bomb the fuck out of them again.

but it's not and you would have to ignore the entire ideology of the Islamic revolution in order to think this way.

"Ignoring everything" is what that poster is doing.

but also they're Persian so they're ethnically distinct from arabs.

Everyone keeps saying this and I've never seen any proof anyone who isn't Persian can tell the difference.

Its very apparent thay the EU doesnt know how to play real politics. They're so trapped in their beurocratic mindset that they cant commit to any future vision. Spain is my go-to example here. The US and EU got in a bit disagreement a month ago over Greenland, fundamentally rooted in US doubts about whether Europe could be relied on for use of their military bases. They insisted that the US did not need Greenland because they already have access due fo existing agreements. Weeks later, in their infinite wisdom, Spain blocks the US from using their bases during the Iran conflict.

I forgot about the Greenland and basing issue. This is really feeding right into that.

 

[BiC Lighter]

Trump does some more shitting on the EU for being a bunch of wishy-washy pussies who don't deserve shit
ssstwitter.com_1773680653724.mp4

Nigger the EU could have pulled a Suez Crisis on you by refusing access to NATO bases, have fun getting bombed to shit trying to refuel from Prince Sultan Air Base or whatever the fuck.

 

[The Great Ducktator]

I believe the Soviet Union agreed to dismantle those to end the crisis

Correct, the Soviets got some of the missiles stationed in Europe (or Turkey?) dismantled in return.

 

[Zoobles]

Does Iran even have someone who can issue a stand down order?

Yes. Mojtaba can if he is alive. If he is dead or incapacitated, the Interim Leadership Council are probably running the show behind the scenes and they have the legal capacity to just declare him out of service and issue the order themselves. The likeliness of them doing that is a whole different question.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Depends. With no airdefense and Israel proven to have free reign over the country, they can just come back and bomb the fuck out of them again.

Missiles aren't the only way to kill Jews in a holy war. A dirka dirka dirt nap explosive vest blown in a Jewish city will get the tears of Bibi rolling, even if Iran's air defense grid is down.

 

[Historical Strelkov]

Nigger the EU

Nigger the EU can't even rape and murder their own people fast enough for their quotas.

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

People don't quite get just how weak Iran is internally because they spend all their effort projecting to the world how badass and untouchable they are. If we didn't drop one more bomb starting this moment, they could maybe survive another year or two if they beg Russia and China for help, but you can't leverage your way out of destroying your water supply and pissing off a majority of your 90 million strong population.

Their banks are also collapsed

General Van Riper and he was a retired Marine. What he did was have the simulated Iranians use motorcycle couriers to hand off written orders so as to avoid US signals intelligence and used a swarm of suicide speed boats to overwhelm American point defense. And it worked! In the exercise, he was able to sink an aircraft carrier.

those motorcycle couriers were going at lightspeed and the suicide speed boats were carrying antiship missiles twice their size

Van Riper played his game correctly but it's not translatable to real life. Iran has invested a ton into suicide speedboats with antiship missiles that did actually fit and they've been able to do nothing with them

 

[Ghostse]

I assume you're talking about the wargame where a (iirc) USMC general used fast boats to take out a carrier group by loading them with so much explosives and tech that they'd have sunk from the added weight and the carrier group was forced to run effectively blind. Using US wargames as an accurate measure of our capabilities is incredibly retarded, we intentionally gimp our forces to test absolutely worst case scenarios.

General Van Riper and he was a retired Marine. What he did was have the simulated Iranians use motorcycle couriers to hand off written orders so as to avoid US signals intelligence and used a swarm of suicide speed boats to overwhelm American point defense. And it worked! In the exercise, he was able to sink an aircraft carrier.

However the Iranians were played by a 140 IQ giga chad who took the initiative and unleashed hell before the American side in the exercise was able to cut out his command and control Ala Desert Storm. And Iran did take notes. They have A LOT of small boats but they’re a state actor and state actors need to implement command and control to do any of this ballsy shit. Guess what we blew up on the first day?

My brain has sanded off the finer details but:

The war game being played was to simulate the US performing a landing in Iran. They wanted to simulate what a ground invasion would look like so there were a bunch of things set up to basically assume "US forces on the beach are a done deal, go".

The admiral playing the Iranians launched a bunch of speedboats with explosives on the US landing force who were forced to land at specific beaches by the rules. Now, to be completely fair the the OpFor guy, the commander playing the US was also being a fucking sped by "I'm going to practically beach my ships so I can offload my forces faster ".

So the guy in charge canceled the game and reset it because both commanders were being faggots and not helping them simulate the thing he was trying to simulate. he forbade speedboat bombs but also forces the US commander to keep his ships at a reasonable distance (this is always omitted in retellings)

The OpFor commander had a beef with the guy running the game and didn't want to be there, and thus made it his goal to fuck with the running and ensure it was a shit show.

The motorcycle couriers, however, WAS a legit 300 IQ move EXCEPT the war game rules weren't set to take transit time of orders in to consideration. That is, the Iranian commander's orders traveled on motorcycle couriers traveling at the speed of light and had no allowance for those couriers being intercepted, killed, or otherwise delayed/detained/disabled.
Future versions of the US war game were build to incorporate modeling for "physical comms".

tl;dr: The OpFor commander was more interested in trying to break the wargame's rules than helping them simulate an invasion out of personal vendetta.

Missiles aren't the only way to kill Jews in a holy war. A dirka dirka dirt nap explosive vest blown in a Jewish city will get the tears of Bibi rolling, even if Iran's air defense grid is down.

You aren't wrong, however that is why Israel is leveing Lebanon r/n.

 

[autistic dog]

The gulf states have been hurt by this more than others and have been generally solid business partners. When this is over its highly likely that they will play a pivotal role in reshaping the region to be more US friendly, so abandoning them is a poor idea. Its important to ensure that any sacrifices they make are not without reward, and that we show that loyal allies arent left out to dry.

I agree with this but the problem currently is the rest of the world holding the US back. They are being told to open the straight but play by rules in which asymmetrical drone warfare is allowed to continue. The US can take and keep territory for good and use it to make profit years from now. They can authorize their allied nations to take Iranian territory and even arm them to do this. They could even completely glass Iran which would instantly reopen the straight and leave its oil unharmed for later harvesting.

The US is playing nice currently and allowing Iran to continue to sell oil. I suspect Trump asking for help is a precursor to blowing up khrag island or taking it over.

 

[Pelican Bones]

War games are played where you handicap your team and turn on unlimited ammo for the opponents so that you can stress test your shit and see where it breaks. If you "win" your war games you are fucking up.