The current troop build-up just isn't there.
I just said that so I don't see what the issue is.
Any invasion of Iran, at current, is going to be using the Iranians as the ground forces so there's no need to move ground assets.
Iran simply put lacks the ability to do harm to an alert US CSG unless the US commander is Black Sea Fleet levels of incompetent.
Can someone tell me what the fuck is the point of US bases in Saudi, Qatar and UAE if we're not allowed to use them for landbased aircraft?
We can use them for logistics. We can't launch strikes on Iran from them because the steadfastness of our Middle Eastern allies is only surpassed by our European ones, but we can land and service craft on them before rebasing. We can store munitions and personnel. The bases also act as alternate/recovery bases incase strike craft have problems.
Additionally at some point in the future if IT HAPPENS we have bases and infrastructure there.
The monarchists overestimate their support base. Ethnic minorities prefer Khamenei over Pahlavi. Azeris, Balochis and Kurds will attempt to secede from Iran if Pahlavi gets any control
I think you are correct, partly. But you're also underestimating the Shah's support.
I don't think, at this moment, the Shah-bros are misjudging anything. No one likes the mullahs except the IRGC and the ineptness of their corruption is become apparent even to their natural allies. The Shah is a rallying figure.
Being they are all sand niggers they haven't thought through what comes after. And I think you've covered what happens if the Shah takes power: the Kurds will want a Kurdistan, the Azeris will start wildin' especially with a resurgent Turkish-backed Azerbaijan, and Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan - or at least their border minorities - are goign to start aggitating for new borders or at least more unification of their ethnic enclaves.
But I've posted in this thread before: right now that's all he is. A figure. He doesn't have any generals, or even Colonels, defecting and pledging themselves to his cause. No Brigadiers are ordering their troops to join the potestors. Not a single governor, mayor, or head of government agency has defected and offered to join the shadow government.
He has the support of the people, but no method to turn that support into any sort of governance, and no method to retain power once the mobs decide they aren't happy that he hasn't magically fixed everything.
Maybe that will change when the bombs start falling.
Going back to the minorities:
Your point about the Druze is apples to oranges. The Druze have been getting induced by Mossad for.... well, ever but heavily since the civil war started. They would not be trying to split if the Eternal Jew wasn't in their ear offering them support and safe haven. Israel is doing this because they want to leverage the moment to either annex territory or at the very least create a friendly Druze state to buffer them with Syria. They haven't forgotten nearly 80 years of Syria being one of the top Anti-Israel agitators.
I'll disagree with you on the Kurds; in Iraq the Kurds have been happy to accept State-within-a-state status given inducements (i.e. oil revenue) and assurances from the US. I can see the Kurds in Iran likewise being bought off cheaply, especially given they can see how well its worked for their Iraqi cousins.
I'll also challenge you on the Azeris; potentially.
The Azeris are going to whatever Turkey wants them to do. And right now, Turkey has taken the tack "What is bad for Iran is good for Israel so we need to stop that", so I think Turkey tells Azerbaijan that their people better sit still and shut up, and they will. But that's subject to change based on E-dog's whims. He might very well decide if the Ayatollah has fallen, Monarchist Iran is more likely to be an Israeli ally and thus take the Azeris off the chain.
In what fucking parallel universe?
Like I understand and agree "yeah a ground war in Iran would be dumb and a waste of time and money" but lmao what's the logical procession of events that results in the destruction of the US
He multipolaring until he BROOOCS.Russia is utterly depleting itself in Ukraine to the point of its sphere imploding and Russia is helpless to do anything about it. Due to retards brainwashing him (or his handlers paying him), he is assuming the US is just as ratfucking stupid as his gay crush Putin. He is no-gag-reflex swallowing useful idiot stories from Kremlin agents on /pol/ about how much Iraq/Afghanistan harmed US force readiness.
Basically the side that let Syria and now Venezuela and soon Iran collapse because of utter inability is trying to claim that's the same as the US opting to simply accelerate its pull out of Afghanistan and not bail out the inept and corrupt regime.
They're an entrenched authoritarian regime, of course they've killed some protestors, just not at the exaggerated scale the Holden Bloodfeasts claim.
