China's Taiwan strategy is not a straight up military invasion. Instead, they're aiming for finlandization of Taiwan through a campaign of pressure and intimidation.
The end goal is to force Taiwan to accept a "one country two systems" solution similar to the one China implemented with Hong Kong. They intend to accomplish this using a combination of military power, political influence, finance, and harassment.
China's actual military capabilities and political compromise of western countries is less important than Taiwan's perception. China just completed it's third carrier and regularly threatens the region with military drills while American politicians are too scared of China to even
call Taiwan a country. China
harasses ships and planes, cuts undersea cables, and circles Taiwan with air armadas with hardly even a complaint from the US. The more China gets away with bullying Taiwan and the Yellow Sea region, the more a political solution looks preferable. Tiawan could make it all go away just by signing a piece of paper.
Just like in Hong Kong, politicians and important people who play ball with Beijing will be rewarded in the "two system" solution, while opponents will be punished. As the pressure increases and the results look more inevitable, people will want to be on the winning side.
